What's a worthwhile daily take on the e-mini S&P 500?

[Laissez Faire]

From my colleague Joe Easton who follows the ES closely every day:
In my opinion a worthwhile daily take for ES is between 8-15 points. Each day is different and needs to be treated as so.

As indicated there is 100s or even 1000s of points to be had by catching every minor gyration. However this is foolish thinking. Using the days range is much more reasonable approach. So if the days range is about 30 points, getting 1/3 to 1/2 of the range is a job well done. Typically to make 10 -15 points you have to make closer to 17-22 points and account for stop outs and not perfect execution.

8-15 points seems beyond worthwhile. Does your colleague or your firm have/know a lot of traders which consistently nets that on a daily basis?

The big question is what are the losing days look like??

Yes. Very important. One bad day can take a lot if you're not killing it on your good days. So if you're content with a small take on average, you really can't lose that much when you do have a losing day.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Yes, i only trade ES (and swing trade stocks). So, 50 contracts and 1 point a day would give him $50K, assuming he never has a losing day.

Mind me asking what you're averaging per day assuming you're profitable? Or what you'd consider a good result over time?

How does he handle losing days and what does his losing days look like? Also just 1 point?

I don't quite know. We lost touch before I was able to pick his brain.

But, essentially he had a very high win rate, so I think he'd almost always get that single point. And if stopped, he would take a break and consider if it was worth another trade. Sometimes he would. Sometimes not. So, seemingly very disciplined.

He claimed to have had only 5 losing days last year.

 

[SunTrader]

No one size fits all.

And for those who think 1 point a day is doable are ... forgetting the days where you lose a point. "Math is hard". So is being right day after day after ....

 

[bone]

This is really a somewhat futile to misleading exercise. I haven’t met anyone yet who could control the market.

You take the very best risk vs reward entries that you can and you take clean efficient pre-defined losses.

You target, let’s say, five points because that’s what your modeling says is optimum - and when the market runs another twenty points you can’t second guess yourself because no one knows what’s going to happen five seconds, five minutes, or five hours from now. No one.

You take your little piece out of the days trading range you go on looking for that next optimum opportunity. That’s all you can do.

Control freaks and people looking for certainty should not be involved in trading markets.

I was always cautioned against “projecting” by my mentors.

 

[p0box4]

Mind me asking what you're averaging per day assuming you're profitable? Or what you'd consider a good result over time?

It really depends on the volatility, the higher the volatility the wider my stops and targets, but also the smaller my trade size is. I risk a certain amount of % of my account, per trade.

My minimum target is 1,5 times my stop, but often more (specially the last 3 months). Sometimes i do close my trade early, but that rarely happens.

I only enter around certain levels that i mark on my charts before the session starts. Sometimes there are days with loads of volatility but it never actually trades around my levels (for example if the market shoots up right after the open and never looks back), so i have no entries. On the other hand it has happened before that when the market is in a 10-15 point range for the entire day i make 50 points if it is bouncing up and down between the levels i am looking for.

So in conclusion, the last few months my average weekly profit in points is higher than usual, but the size has been reduced as well. When volatility starts to decrease again, my stops will automatically get tighter again and i will increase size so that with each trade, my potential loss is the same.

 

[savoir]

A worthwhile take is whatever you can extract with minimal risk given your knowledge and skills. That being said, this is an extraordinary period. You can see how much the market is offering daily not just during RTH but overnight. The money is virtually being handed out to anyone with a modicum of skill. The middle portion of profit segments routinely runs 8 to 12 points. Most trades run at least 4 points. A person who goes for 1 point ES is just a marginal trader with very little skill. I will refrain from stating any numbers I have done on my best days so far in 2020. It would no doubt stir up negativity.

 

[themickey]

...... A person who goes for 1 point ES is just a marginal trader with very little skill......

I disagree, if a trader is going large size, has consistency, making 1 point per day x multiple contracts, very few losing days per year, I call this intelligent trading.
Someone trading like this can be very relaxed and I'm assuming this is not labor intensive.
It could be a very simple system which would work whatever the market mood.
Complicated trading is stressful, a 1 ES point trading system sounds lame but I'd be happy with that, trading size, which is very attainable quickly with compounding.

 

[wrbtrader]

Usually we see these threads when volatility is high. Traders start talking about large position size...netting 1 - 2 points per day.

Yet, volatility mean reverts...it always do and then we don't see these type of threads with hypothetical examples of 1 - 2 points per day.

Enjoy what's left of it because its reverted about 60%...soon it will be near its norm and traders will be wondering about why they can not continue catching those big swing ranges every trading day instead of being satisfied with catching them a few times per month.

It's been a wild ride this year...maybe the wildest in our lifetime. Thus, save all of your charts because if ET is still here 10 - 20 years from now...someone will be asking members to post charts from 2020 and/or what was it like to be trading back then (2020).

wrbtrader

 

[Laissez Faire]

Usually we see these threads when volatility is high. Traders start talking about large position size...netting 1 - 2 points per day.

Yet, volatility mean reverts...it always do and then we don't see these type of threads with hypothetical examples of 1 - 2 points per day.

This thread is not about netting 1-2 ES points per day. I only mentioned that trader as an interesting real world example on the topic of what is a good daily take on the ES and how to approach trading the ES.

We spoke way before this volatility picked up and I have no idea if he continued with his 1 point per day method this year. Seeing how he was very disciplined and focused on reducing risk/exposure, I'm not surprised if he even took some of the wildest days off.

Enjoy what's left of it because its reverted about 60%...soon it will be near its norm and traders will be wondering about why they can not continue catching those big swing ranges every trading day instead of being satisfied with catching them a few times per month.

It's been a wild ride this year...maybe the wildest in our lifetime. Thus, save all of your charts because if ET is still here 10 - 20 years from now...someone will be asking members to post charts from 2020 and/or what was it like to be trading back then (2020).

wrbtrader

Volatility is lower than it was in March and we will probably not see such volatility again this year, but my personal guess is that this year will remain volatile around current levels. Might even skip the summer doldrums entirely this year.

 

[wrbtrader]

...Volatility is lower than it was in March and we will probably not see such volatility again this year, but my personal guess is that this year will remain volatile around current levels. Might even skip the summer doldrums entirely this year.

Completely agree unless a breaking news occurs (e.g. 2nd Wave of the Covid-19 follow by redoing the lockdowns).

Yet, if there's no breaking news about the Pandemic. I wouldn't be surprise if we see low volatility numbers. Then again...there's the November election and maybe more protests...



Actually, if we stay range bound at current levels...the summer trading session may not be so boring this year going into a U.S. Presidential elections (November).

Regardless, this year will be one to remember because its broken many records involving economics, health, social, law / order and so on. I won't forget it and we still have another 7 months of wanted/unwanted crazy stuff.

cough

wrbtrader