What would you tell your 18 year old self about trading/investments?

[BlueWaterSailor]

Dude... What... The loss function in this situation is incredibly convex.

Feel free to name an approach that guarantees success.

I've learned that some things require risking it all to make out-sized gains. And that learning to be anti-fragile, for a wide range of things ("won't kill you, or cause actual permanent damage" makes a good qualifier), is the highest good. YMMV.

 

[tommcginnis]

I'm... highly ambivalent about the value of this, progressively more so as time goes on. IME, the most effective learning path is to find out the minimum necessary to learn where the brick walls are, then go get focused, professional training in breaking through them. My "employment" history has been mostly as a consultant - and what employers I've worked for reached out to me because of the reputation I've built. The people I've always cared about "impressing" were my clients - and I've spent more (usually, unseen) effort to provide them with quality work than most people would imagine... but this let me stay mostly independent, successful enough financially, and as free as I wanted to be (seven years of sailing the Caribbean, 20 years of living aboard, off RV cruising - while trading - now.)

There are indeed careers that absolutely require a long, committed, formal learning track; I don't recommend any of them unless someone is really on fire for that kind of thing. Outside of those, I think you can live a much more fulfilled life by following a more active, more engaged path through it. Wasting years in an attempt to get a piece of paper that impresses someone... I just don't see it.

Your opinion is definitely the more popular one for the last quarter-century or more, but I find it lame-brained. (*Literally.*) A standard (and these days, MUCH-maligned) Liberal Arts degree is much less about *learning*, but about *synthesizing* HOW to learn in the future. Now, are there whole DEGREE PROGRAMS aimed at fluff&nonsense? Yes: I've seen it myself. I only need to look in pretty much ANY COLLEGE BOOKSTORE to see how useless are the current offerings: how often to students keep the books? If "never" -- there's your answer: what they were tested on was not deemed worth remembering by them. But that's not the Liberal Arts Degree -- That's the current practitioners' fault.

And that would make my issue with to-the-task education perhaps more plain: there's no/little forethought to how-to-learn-for-later. That makes me sad. But a last (and hopeful) follow-up: there are a number of "disrupter" programs -- both online and brick&mortar here in Indianapolis -- that are not only *vocational* but are also (at least *somewhat*), pedagogical & epistemological -- paying attention to HOW we learn, and how to assemble big bodies of knowledge into a greater whole. "Good on 'em."

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Feel free to name an approach that guarantees success.

I've learned that some things require risking it all to make out-sized gains. And that learning to be anti-fragile, for a wide range of things ("won't kill you, or cause actual permanent damage" makes a good qualifier), is the highest good. YMMV.

I did: look at her mom. She will be her mom. If her mom gives you the creeps, GTFO.

 

[BlueWaterSailor]

Your opinion is definitely the more popular one for the last quarter-century or more, but I find it lame-brained. (*Literally.*)

It's OK, Tom; I've already stated my view on the formal education systems we have in this country, so my lack of concern for the opinion of someone who is so naive as to believe in it wouldn't be of any surprise to you.

A standard (and these days, MUCH-maligned) Liberal Arts degree is much less about *learning*, but about *synthesizing* HOW to learn in the future.

To put it plainly, you literally don't know what you're talking about. The ignorance sticks out all over, as does the panicked defensiveness about having wasted time and treasure in these institutions. But your opinion is immaterial; the ROI for formal learning these days, unless your parents are mega-wealthy and send you to the highest-end schools, approaches zero. The proof is in the unemployability plus the "educational" debt load of Gen-Z; take a look at the statistics some time. Preferably before posting something as arrantly counter-factual as this.

Now, are there whole DEGREE PROGRAMS aimed at fluff&nonsense? Yes: I've seen it myself. I only need to look in pretty much ANY COLLEGE BOOKSTORE to see how useless are the current offerings: how often to students keep the books? If "never" -- there's your answer: what they were tested on was not deemed worth remembering by them. But that's not the Liberal Arts Degree -- That's the current practitioners' fault.

And that would make my issue with to-the-task education perhaps more plain: there's no/little forethought to how-to-learn-for-later. That makes me sad. But a last (and hopeful) follow-up: there are a number of "disrupter" programs -- both online and brick&mortar here in Indianapolis -- that are not only *vocational* but are also (at least *somewhat*), pedagogical & epistemological -- paying attention to HOW we learn, and how to assemble big bodies of knowledge into a greater whole. "Good on 'em."

That's nice. Got a way to propagate whatever cherry-picked "disrupter programs" you like to the rest of the country? For millions of kids? Got a way to reform the educational system as it is - which is essentially a huge baby-sitting farm? Got a method for getting young people to care about being educated, or believing that it means anything for their future (given that their untutored intuition is correct, and it doesn't?)

Here's a tip for you: someone who wants to learn, will. That includes learning how to learn - see the first point or two that I made in my write-up.

My "opinion" is based on decades of teaching and a fair amount of relevant research. What's the basis of yours, other than a panic reaction to being told something you don't like?

 

[BlueWaterSailor]

I did: look at her mom. She will be her mom. If her mom gives you the creeps, GTFO.

You may have lost track here: this advice is supposed to be to your 18-year-old self - not intended for everyone. I would absolutely trust that 18-year-old to use his intuition, and all the other tools I had at that age, to execute well and intelligently on that advice (notice that I even tossed in a caveat about what works well for other people.)

And just FTR, one of my best relationships - perhaps the one I learned the most from, and with the widest range of experiences - was with a woman whose mother was... not the finest example of humanity. Casey parlayed that into "I have excellent examples of how not to live", and became someone I was proud to know and to be with. We were different people with different goals in life, and ended up going our own ways, but that period in my life is one I'm happy to remember.

 

[themickey]

This has turned into "here's how to live right" rather than just a focus on trading - but I don't see any conflict in that, since trading takes... a lot more than just the mechanics. Following suit:

1. Get your head right. If you don't learn to think rationally from the start - and that means having a set of good thought models in your head, good judgment of where they're applicable, and a damn good set of negotiated agreements with your inner self so that you have alignment and integrity in your life - you're subject to being fucked by every passing disturbance or unexpected situation. It'll take a long time to learn all of this, but every increment pays off.

2. Get your body right. I've spent the greatest majority of my life failing at this, and being a couch slug - and now, I'm having to work insanely hard to remedy it. Don't, please, do this to yourself. Chase that inclination to do martial arts - you've got access to some of the best teachers in the world, don't waste it! - and throw in a bunch of body-building into the mix (Matt Furey is awesome.) Really, do it. You'll love how it makes your entire life feel; living in a fit body is a joyful experience. Plus the chicks get off on it, too.

2. Learn soft skills and get very good at them (effective communication, sales, marketing, leadership, problem solving, flexibility/adaptability, related psych.) People who own these rule the world - or can at least mitigate many of the effects of being so ruled.

3. Learn about finance. Don't bother going to school for it (you don't realize it, but - just as you're getting out of your teens - there's a TON of free, or dirt-cheap off-market educational opportunities opening up. TAKE THEM. Any subject that get you excited and jumping out of bed in the morning.)

4. Make your learning explode by taking whatever job you can in the fields you're interested in. Yes, they'll be shit jobs at first... trust yourself: you will fucking SMOKE to the top of whatever field you truly want to be in. I speak from decades of unfailing experience in this.

5. When it comes to women, trust your dick. For most people, the big head works much better than the little one in relationships... and yeah, correlation does not equal causation... but in my life, that's been the only way to participate in those incredible, life-changing ones (all the others have been... OK. Pleasant. That's not nearly enough.) Similar dynamic for friendships: if you don't want to be there with all your heart, walk away with kindness... but walk away. Make all your relationships about "hell YES!" - or "no".

6. Quit listening to an aging fart like me already, get your ass out there, and get INVOLVED with the goddamn world! Climb mountains, sky-dive, cross the desert, sail the open ocean alone... even better, think of things I haven't done - things that totally turn you on and light a fire in your heart and under your ass - and go DO them. I promise... you'll need those memories in the tough times. Which WILL come. Go get'em.

And yeah, trade. It's a hell of a lot of fun of a certain sort. Goes well with a good life.

Unfortunately, imo, a boring lifestyle makes for the best trading environment.
Keep fit yeah, but too much distractions wrecks havoc on trading.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

You may have lost track here: this advice is supposed to be to your 18-year-old self - not intended for everyone. I would absolutely trust that 18-year-old to use his intuition, and all the other tools I had at that age, to execute well and intelligently on that advice (notice that I even tossed in a caveat about what works well for other people.)

And just FTR, one of my best relationships - perhaps the one I learned the most from, and with the widest range of experiences - was with a woman whose mother was... not the finest example of humanity. Casey parlayed that into "I have excellent examples of how not to live", and became someone I was proud to know and to be with. We were different people with different goals in life, and ended up going our own ways, but that period in my life is one I'm happy to remember.

Yes, and there are many women who will help you be a better person without taking the risk of letting little dicky decide.

18 year olds are stupid. You need to give them specific directions: would you want to live with her mom when you are that age? No? Ok, fuck her and move on.

 

[maler]

While I've always bought and sold by the numbers, I found there is a place for gut. With the benefit of hindsight, I would tell my 18 year old self to never go against the gut when dealing with people. It reliably detects bs, deception and all kinds of danger.

 

[BlueWaterSailor]

Yes, and there are many women who will help you be a better person without taking the risk of letting little dicky decide.

You have a false assertion buried in there: that you have some "better" method for discovering those women. I would make a very large bet that you don't.

And, again: I know what's worked for me, again and again - so that's advice I would feel far more certain giving to my 18-year-old self than literally anything from someone else's experience. Frankly, I'm not sure how and why you keep missing this point in preference to asserting your own experiences and preferences as being more valid for that 18-year-old me; they're not.

18 year olds are stupid. You need to give them specific directions: would you want to live with her mom when you are that age? No? Ok, fuck her and move on.

Feel free to speak for your 18-year-old. Mine, by that age, had been through experiences you can't imagine, and didn't have the luxury of remaining as stupid, ignorant, or incompetent as the average.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Yes, and there are many women who will help you be a better person without taking the risk of letting little dicky decide.

18 year olds are stupid. You need to give them specific directions: would you want to live with her mom when you are that age? No? Ok, fuck her and move on.

So just as an example, one of the prettiest girls in my son's class, according to him, is also the most dramatic and problem causing. My son noticed that she liked him and asked me what he should do, I told him that he should pick the girl who most likely will be a good person when she grows up.

He picked another pretty girl who is always smiling, does well in school (she won an award this year) and most importantly does not get him into troublesome situations. She also plays chess with him at lunch. They continue to communicate over summer and look forward to seeing each other at various birthday parties.

His friend picked the pretty girl and... My son was very proud that he dodged a bullet.

Feel free to speak for your 18-year-old. Mine, by that age, had been through experiences you can't imagine, and didn't have the luxury of remaining as stupid, ignorant, or incompetent as the average.

The fact that you tell your 18 year old self to do nothing different should scare you.

Edit: unless you're still young, in which case it makes sense.