What would you do if you had the "holy grail"?

[WarEagle]

Quote from Error 404:



There are "sure thing" strategies. It is no myth. This particular strategy has only one flaw that I can see, and that is that it has to be done at a low enough level to stay "below radar" as to not be recognized and thus rendered ineffective, and it can not be done on a small scale (as I said) because it takes advantage of a situation that may not continue to exist indefinitely.

Then what you describe is an "edge" rather than the notorious HG. In that case, scrape together from friends, family and trusted associates enough to hit the sweet spot (enough capital to take advantage but not enough to remove the edge) and milk it for as long as possible. It is only a matter of time before someone else finds it and does it for you.

Good luck.

 

[Error 404]

Quote from WarEagle:

Taken to its logical conclusion, if you never lost, or almost never lost, then eventually you would control the entire market and it would cease to exist, taking with it the entire economy.

I have said these same words here on ET almost verbatim.

I laughed at the guys that said they could make 5% per day for exactly this reason. They would end up with all the money in the world.

I have no such delusions. Perhaps the most significant aspect of what I believe I have come upon is the limitation of how much of it can be done. Taking out of the market what my theoretical system could, would be insignificant in the grand scheme of things. And absolutely could NOT be compounded. Go over a limited size, and it would not work. I know this more than I know that it would work at limited size (and I am almost 100% sure of that). But "almost" is "almost". There is NO "ALMOST" that it would NOT work if the size exceeded a certain level. That I know with absolute certainty.

Peace,
RS

 

[darkhorse]

Quote from Error 404:


There are "sure thing" strategies. It is no myth. This particular strategy has only one flaw that I can see, and that is that it has to be done at a low enough level to stay "below radar" as to not be recognized and thus rendered ineffective, and it can not be done on a small scale (as I said) because it takes advantage of a situation that may not continue to exist indefinitely.

RS:

Not to be obtuse, but if it only works temporarily, i.e. until markets change in some significant way or enough other traders discover it, why would you call it a "sure thing"?

How is this any different than a strategy that works well for a while and then stops working for a while, like most other short term systems?

p.s. does the zero downside include transaction and slippage costs?

 

[ElectricSavant]

Must be some sort of pyramiding system that removes risk from probability. No, not compounding. Just starting an entry at a level and increasing it as the market develops level and direction until grail trade is reached. You must start small to build up to grail level.

Michael B.

P.S. As traders we achive this daily with a trailing stop just above breakeven. Options are interesting instruments and I have often wondered about putting on positions in a effort to capture what RS has discovered.

Quote from Error 404:

I have said these same words here on ET almost verbatim.

I laughed at the guys that said they could make 5% per day for exactly this reason. They would end up with all the money in the world.

I have no such delusions. Perhaps the most significant aspect of what I believe I have come upon is the limitation of how much of it can be done. Taking out of the market what my theoretical system could, would be insignificant in the grand scheme of things. And absolutely could NOT be compounded. Go over a limited size, and it would not work. I know this more than I know that it would work at limited size (and I am almost 100% sure of that). But "almost" is "almost". There is NO "ALMOST" that it would NOT work if the size exceeded a certain level. That I know with absolute certainty.

Peace,
RS

 

[Cheese]

I would define the Holy Grail as allowing very occasional loss - but never injurious because you trade on a fixed relative bet size ratio to capital. But the key is that the Holy Grail will function for you as an unabated accumulator.

As pointed out zero sum dynamics allow rapid accumulation. My market is the DOW but I could extend to other zero sum index futures markets (and elsewhere). I don't yet choose to do so.

WarEagle is right about limits. If easy market utilization is being lost or put another way you become restricted by market liquidity then your size of play has become so big it is reaching a self limiting zone

From a standing start the lure is nevertheless there inviting the few who become fully self informed zero sum players to build massive money accumulation fortunes.

 

[Error 404]

Quote from darkhorse:

RS:

Not to be obtuse, but if it only works temporarily, i.e. until markets change in some significant way or enough other traders discover it, why would you call it a "sure thing"?

How is this any different than a strategy that works well for a while and then stops working for a while, like most other short term systems?

Darkhorse, my old friend...always a pleasure to see you post. And as always, your questions and observations are well thought out.

Let me clarify. I hope we are on the same wavelength here.

When a strategy works for a while and then after a while stops working, as you so accurately put it, that is a system that is dependent (as I understand your meaning) that is dependent on "market action".

The difference here is that what I believe I have stumble upon has nothing to do with how the markets behave. There would be no need to adjust to market conditions. Only rules. If the rules change, then the system would cease to work. If the rules do not change, the system should work regardless of what happens in the market.

Which is why I stressed several times that it is crucial to not "over trade" the system. Get visible, and the game would be over. I said it had to be "below the radar". I meant just that.

Hope this answers your question.

How have you been? Are you trading these days? Still up in God's country? (man, I miss the beauty of not being in Florida!!!).

Peace my friend,
RS

 

[Error 404]

Quote from ElectricSavant:

Must be some sort of pyramiding system that removes risk from probability. No, not compounding. Just starting an entry at a level and increasing it as the market develops level and direction until grail trade is reached. You must start small to build up to grail level.

Michael B.

No, no "pyramiding system". And nothing so sophisticated as to remove risk from probability.

I am not that clever. All my trading success is just the result of listening to more experience traders and doing it for a long time. Believe me, I am the quintessential "journeyman" trader. I have just been grinding it out for many years. Never had an original idea in my life. (Maybe I can break that streak now).

Quote from WarEagle:

Then what you describe is an "edge" rather than the notorious HG. In that case, scrape together from friends, family and trusted associates enough to hit the sweet spot (enough capital to take advantage but not enough to remove the edge) and milk it for as long as possible. It is only a matter of time before someone else finds it and does it for you.

Good luck.

Thanks for the "good luck" wishes.

Not an "edge" in the traditional sense. That would (to me) imply a statistical advantage of one thing being more probable than another. This is not that sophisticated at all. Just finding a "loophole" so to speak in the mechanics of a certain kind of trade.

As for your suggestion of scraping together from friends and family, that is probably exactly what I will do. (Or liquidate my 401k). I think I just got so excited with my "revelation" that I was compelled to put my thoughts here on ET as I happened to be up all night thinking this through. The excitement got to me. And what better sounding board than you guys?

Peace,
RS

 

[ElectricSavant]

Go to sleep RS

Michael B.

As for your suggestion of scraping together from friends and family, that is probably exactly what I will do. (Or liquidate my 401k). I think I just got so excited with my "revelation" that I was compelled to put my thoughts here on ET as I happened to be up all night thinking this through. The excitement got to me. And what better sounding board than you guys?

 

[DT-waw]

Quote from Error 404:

I do not have the capital myself to really make the system effective for me.

+

and yes, these things are sure money when you can do them. They are so "sure" that haircut (close to, but not exactly what customers know of as margin) is zero. Because when you cannot lose, there is no need to have a capital requirement.

Virtually zero cap. req.
100%/year exp. return.
This system is not effective for you?

 

[axeman]

RS,

Start a mini hedge fund. (Not talking about legally here).

NEVER reveal the system.

Like WarEagle said, get family, friends, associates to invest.

Show them a real $ equity curve.

Whoever says no, show them the new equity curve next
month and show them what your OTHER friends have
made so far.

Maximize the available liquidity of the system.
Milk that baby until it fizzles. And HURRY!


peace

axeman