What would Putin do if...

[LEAPup]

Any way we cut it, it's yet another mess our community organizer can't handle, and will most likely screw up to be damned. America is screwed harder than a French whore on a Saturday night.

 

[Martinghoul]

The thread is not about what the west wants to do. It is about what Putin would do IF the west raised the stakes. The answer is that he would probably fold, and he would certainly back down considerably from what he would do in a situation where the west meekly folds its hand.

Firstly, the West is seemingly unable to speak with a single voice on this (they can't even agree whether it's worth expelling Russia out of the G-8). Secondly, it's not entirely clear that Putin is likely to fold in response to an escalation. In this particular case, the stakes for Russia are too great, in a variety of ways. What exactly are the stakes for the US and the West? Thirdly, as demonstrated by the events in Georgia in 2008, the US doesn't ultimately have the appetite to engage in serious conflict with Russia in its backyard, in spite of whatever saber-rattling that might precede it.

So I disagree with your conclusion...

 

[blah12345678]

Which members of "NATO" would be contributing troops for this show of force? The French? The Italians? The Germans? Seriously?

Putin can cut off gas to europe and destroy their economies. Putting carriers etc into the Black Sea woudl be madness. They would be within reach of Russian missle batteries, not to mention subs, and would be totally destroyed within the first 15 minutes of a real confrontation. What do you do then? Say "Nevermind?"

This episode, like the one in Georgia before it, exposes the shallow thinking behind bringing these countries in Russia's backyard into NATO inthe first place. Or we really going to war over some tiny coucntyr most of us couldn't find on a map? thankfully, Ukraine is not in NATO, but that clearly is the intent here.

How would we react if Mexico decided to enter a defense pact with china and gave them military bases, etc?

Putin has all the cards here, plus his poosition is not at all unreasonable. The europhiles in Ukraine overthrew a democratically elected president, withour backing. How does that square with international norms?

I disagree.

What does Russia have that everyone wants, but can get somewhere else? Energy.

What does Russia need that it can't get (enough of) within its own borders? Food, foreign currency, metals. Basically, everything else..

This is mere saber-rattling. The truth is, a lengthy economic blockade (and possible a naval blockade of the Bosphorus and the Baltic) plus seizure of foreign bank accounts and other assets, and Russia goes back to Cold War food lines...

They're not Germany. They're not (mostly) self-sufficient. They're completely dependent on the West for food and other stuff. They need peace with the West. It's the only way they get food and other essentials from the resource-rich Americas and Southeast Asia.

We bankrupted them once. We can do that and starve them, too. As history shows, that's far easier, cheaper, and effective than invading them...

Let their broke, starving citizens do the dirty work for us...

 

[Wallet]

The thread is not about what the west wants to do. It is about what Putin would do IF the west raised the stakes. The answer is that he would probably fold, and he would certainly back down considerably from what he would do in a situation where the west meekly folds its hand.

The warm water port in Crimea is an absolute necessity for Russia's navy, Putin will do what ever he needs to secure it. Taking action now before any Western presence on the ground in reaction to Ukraine's ouster is the easiest course of action.

Putin pressing for the Ukraine homeland, probably won't happen imo, Russia needs Ukraine and it's economy intact to funnel it's gas, Putin knows this, but he will not under any condition allow his only warm water port to side with NATO.

I can't imagine that this hasn't been discussed through back doors, to me this is "wagging the dog"...... Russia gets Crimea, Ukraine retains it's freedom and everyone gets to act the bad ass.

 

[AAAintheBeltway]

I disagree.

What does Russia have that everyone wants, but can get somewhere else? Energy.

What does Russia need that it can't get (enough of) within its own borders? Food, foreign currency, metals. Basically, everything else..

This is mere saber-rattling. The truth is, a lengthy economic blockade (and possible a naval blockade of the Bosphorus and the Baltic) plus seizure of foreign bank accounts and other assets, and Russia goes back to Cold War food lines...

They're not Germany. They're not (mostly) self-sufficient. They're completely dependent on the West for food and other stuff. They need peace with the West. It's the only way they get food and other essentials from the resource-rich Americas and Southeast Asia.

We bankrupted them once. We can do that and starve them, too. As history shows, that's far easier, cheaper, and effective than invading them...

Let their broke, starving citizens do the dirty work for us...

You must live in Colorado, because you are clearly high.

This kind of Wall Street Journal/Johnny McCain Cold War nostalgia is based on fantasy. Yes, we could mount an economic blockade, provided we had the cooperation of europe and China. How likely is that? They were not eager to boycott Iran to stop it from getting nuclear weapons. Russia is not Iran. They have the capacity to cause trouble for us all over the place.

A naval blockade? That is an act of war. Just a quick question, who is better prepared for all out naval warfare, us or the russkies in their own backyard. We don't have all that many ships. We can't afford to lose half of them over Crimea.

I am hardly a pacifist or marxist. But I am semi-rational, which is more than I can say for our leaders. Me, if I had to choose, I would choose to be allies with Russia over Ukraine. How many nukes does Ukraine have?

The best way to handle this is to ignore it. Not our problem. The last thing Obama needs to do is to make it into a face off between him and Putin. Putin is still angry over the Olympic snub and criticism. He despises Obama and worse, has zero respect for him. No way he backs down in a face off.

 

[blah12345678]

You must live in Colorado, because you are clearly high.

This kind of Wall Street Journal/Johnny McCain Cold War nostalgia is based on fantasy. Yes, we could mount an economic blockade, provided we had the cooperation of europe and China. How likely is that? They were not eager to boycott Iran to stop it from getting nuclear weapons. Russia is not Iran. They have the capacity to cause trouble for us all over the place.

A naval blockade? That is an act of war. Just a quick question, who is better prepared for all out naval warfare, us or the russkies in their own backyard. We don't have all that many ships. We can't afford to lose half of them over Crimea.

I am hardly a pacifist or marxist. But I am semi-rational, which is more than I can say for our leaders. Me, if I had to choose, I would choose to be allies with Russia over Ukraine. How many nukes does Ukraine have?

The best way to handle this is to ignore it. Not our problem. The last thing Obama needs to do is to make it into a face off between him and Putin. Putin is still angry over the Olympic snub and criticism. He despises Obama and worse, has zero respect for him. No way he backs down in a face off.

Not high. Not in Colorado.

I agree, the best policy is to do nothing. Especially if you're a bond or curency trader. The volatility helps.

Fighting over the Ukraine and the Crimea aren't worth it. Crimea in the 1850's nearly broke the British Empire. No need for us to repeat that disaster.

OTOH, some will say that Putin is like a 2 year old/teenager - pushing the boundaries to see where the line is and what the punishment will be. If none, he'll keep provoking and taking baby steps toward Europe, Turkey, and the Indian Ocean... If smacked a little, then he'll retreat and lick his wounds. Done 2-3 times, and he may finally give up.

But my preference is for Europe to solve their own problems, and stop begging us to bail them out, time and again... And then kicking the dog later once their freedom's ensured...

 

[LEAPup]

You must live in Colorado, because you are clearly high.

This kind of Wall Street Journal/Johnny McCain Cold War nostalgia is based on fantasy. Yes, we could mount an economic blockade, provided we had the cooperation of europe and China. How likely is that? They were not eager to boycott Iran to stop it from getting nuclear weapons. Russia is not Iran. They have the capacity to cause trouble for us all over the place.

A naval blockade? That is an act of war. Just a quick question, who is better prepared for all out naval warfare, us or the russkies in their own backyard. We don't have all that many ships. We can't afford to lose half of them over Crimea.

I am hardly a pacifist or marxist. But I am semi-rational, which is more than I can say for our leaders. Me, if I had to choose, I would choose to be allies with Russia over Ukraine. How many nukes does Ukraine have?

The best way to handle this is to ignore it. Not our problem. The last thing Obama needs to do is to make it into a face off between him and Putin. Putin is still angry over the Olympic snub and criticism. He despises Obama and worse, has zero respect for him. No way he backs down in a face off.

Agreed!!!! NO WAY Putin backs down from our little nazi. Zero chance!!!

And btw, if I lived in Colorado right now, I'd be so damned stoned, I wouldn't know what's going on around me, no less the World around me. Would be a dumb thing on my part, but I'd just like to escape from this lunacy that's overtaken my country...

 

[vk60546]

NATO massed its forces on the eastern border of Poland and Romania, put several carrier battlegroups and submarines in the Black Sea, and then got invited by the Ukraine government to come in and secure their territory against foreign armed forces? My suspicion is - he would do nothing, then pack up and go home. He will not risk WWIII over Crimea - or even risk permanently losing the Sevastopol naval base, which could be vaporised in a few hours along with its fleet.

Putin is bluffing and needs to be re-raised all-in.

It's not that simple. Crimea wants independence and many people in the Eastern Ukraine fully support the Russian intervention.

 

[Martinghoul]

Crimea in the 1850's nearly broke the British Empire. No need for us to repeat that disaster.

Crimea nearly broke the British Empire? In what alternative history did this happen?

 

[Tsing Tao]

Crimea nearly broke the British Empire? In what alternative history did this happen?

I have to admit being stumped by that one as well. I even went to google, but alas, it's version of the Crimean war was decidedly less dramatic.