What Will KOSPI Do in the Last Hour?

[Roark]

What's your prediction for KOSPI in the last hour of trading before the close? The trend downward today has been classic:

<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3017854">

 

[dont]

It will fade up, won't close in the green but say -0.3%

Basically its going nowhere

 

[Roark]

Shorts closing positions causing it to fade up? So far, you're prediction is looking pretty good.

<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3017863">

 

[dont]

Quote from Roark:

Shorts closing positions causing it to fade up? So far, you're prediction is looking pretty good.

Oops!

 

[Roark]

I still think your call was pretty good. It was only in the last two minutes where there was a significant plunge. Therefore, you win the Kospi Master Trader of the Day award.

<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3017878">

 

[Roark]

My results for the day with Kospi:

<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3017879">


That is with an IB simulation account (I'm still trying to master this beast). That's with four round trips. Two winners and two break even trades. I missed the fade-up in the last hour.

 

[dont]

My experience is if you have sell off in the futures late in the day like that, then spot will follow through the next day. This thing can move like nothing I have seen, you can have 3% moves in a few minutes or they just fade away. Its a lot fun to trade because it moves.

 

[Roark]

Quote from dont:

My experience is if you have sell off in the futures late in the day like that, then spot will follow through the next day. This thing can move like nothing I have seen, you can have 3% moves in a few minutes or they just fade away. Its a lot fun to trade because it moves.

I'll have another go at it tomorrow and see it follows through to the downside in accordance with the tendency that you observed. It may move, but it's no fun if you're on the wrong side of the move .

 

[dont]

Careful holding this thing overnight, you can get big swings. But at the moment it tending to fade away from the big opening move. So basically the HL range isd much bigger than the close to close. But then out of the blue it will explode, weirdly enough you don't want to get caught short it blasts higer much more often than it drops.

 

[athlonmank8]

Don't predict the market unless your prediction has an edge. People who predict at the casino lose. It's the same thing in trading. You're up against traders that have statistical edges. You need to join them, not go up against them