What will happen in the economy if 10 year treasury yields hit 5.3% like in 2003?

[HeSaidSheSaid]

was March 2003 the turning point of the 2000 bear market? basing on the bond yields & SPX, they are telling we are going to have a bull market.
bond king Jeffrey Gundlach, bond emperor Bill Gross, and company are b1tching about earning peanuts with low interest rate? yet they've bailed out on bonds, the money has to go somewhere to re-gain the lost income? currently, what's the hottest, sensible story? no, it's not bitCon!

 

[Relentless]

and yet you can. Granted not forever, but in the long run we are all dead.

You can't. It has never worked. This ends badly.

 

[Nine_Ender]

Our debt is significantly greater than in 2003, and the M1,M2 supply as well. If buyers get spooked and expect a better return to loan out money to the govt for 10 years it will quite interesting.

I would imagine the S&P 500 would take a 40% haircut.
PM's like gold will tumble to 800 or less an ounce due to the cost to borrow and hold.

It does seem like the market is able to absorb 1.5% on the 10. The Auction today was ok, there were less buyers though than the last few years but enough to keep things calm.

I could imagine how the economy on the street level will get.

From Feb 25, 2009, just before the bull market started really taking charge :

Question is will the S&P go to 300. Since this bull market was caused by borrowing,all kinds of funky creating folks figuring out how to polish turds etc.

Something has to give.

You just seem delusional at all times. How many 40% hair cuts have happened to the SPX in our lifetime ?

 

[Nine_Ender]

You can't. It has never worked. This ends badly.

2009 is calling you.

 

[formikatrading]

Wasn't 2003 a market bottom and a rally that lasted 4 years?

 

[unconventional wisdom]

i read somewhere that the universe is expanding endlessly. maybe that allows for endless expansion of debt. long everything because, why not?

 

[Sig]

Just remember what we all (I include myself here) were saying about the imminent rampant inflation in 2009. I lost a bit of money engaging in that bet back then, how about you all?

As a somewhat related aside, keep in mind that when the U.S. sells a 30 year treasury at 2% today they're going to be paying 2% on that debt between now and 2051, no matter what happens to interest rates between now and then. Even a 10 year note sold today at 1.5% locks in that rate through 2031. So you can't just do the quick math that Debt=X so if 10 year notes go to 5.3% interest payments go to .053*X.

 

[SunTrader]

"What will happen in the economy if 10 year treasury yields hit 5.3% like in 2003?"

Team by team, reporters baffled, trumped, tethered, cropped

Check.

Won't be long now.

 

[KINGOFSHORTS]

From Feb 25, 2009, just before the bull market started really taking charge :



You just seem delusional at all times. How many 40% hair cuts have happened to the SPX in our lifetime ?

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. America today is not your dads America of past.

 

[RedDuke]

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. America today is not your dads America of past.

after we saw oil at -37 last year,
I say nothing is off the table. Drop of any magnitude is possible.