What will break this uptrend?

I know what's going to break this uptrend. It looks like people around the world are getting fed up with taking it up the ass. This is off course perfectly reasonable if your government is a dictatorship and you live in poverty, it is not so much when you have gone on a lending binge, overspent, overearned for 20 years and then expect that this will continue forever (i.e. the American public servant and a number of sectors in European countries, mostly Peripherals and France (fucking French)).

I'm not Greek so I don't know what happened exactly, but it appears to me that they rolled over and took it up the rear (rightfully so as they really deserved it imo, retiring at 50...come on nobody figured they should vote for a reasonable gov?). Americans, however, most likely have a lot more entitlement issues than the Greek do (US greatest country in the world hoo-ah that means free moneh forevah!). The current model in which unions have a lot of power and public servants receive ridiculous compensation compared to private workers is simply not sustainable and it cannot compete with other countries such as China (no matter how low the USD goes (I also don't think it's particularly smart to devalue USD, the US doesn't export a lot that isn't essential (like Windows and other tech stuff) and imports would be cheaper on higher USD. US will never have a positive trade balance, iz impozzible))

However now all these faggots with entitlement issues are marching on their local seats of power and demanding that THEY PAY MOAR MOAR MOAR, even if it breaks the budget down completely. They won't take it up the rear, or will they? What you have here is a country that has been living beyond its means, had a VERY brief moment of reconcilliation (probably something like August 2008 thru February 2009) and then figured out that the music didn't have to stop yet. Well, soon there will be no more music (there are several ways it can stop, some reasonably pleasant some very unpleasant) and the people don't seem to accept that sacrifices have to be made (i.e. no new car every year and no fucking McMansion when all you do is sit behind a desk and fill out fucking forms for Uncle Sam). And these are basically just the first few attempts to push through some cuts. And these aren't even very serious cuts and they also aren't very serious states. What happens when they try this in CA or NY or some other place that is actually economically relevant and the government just shuts down?

Not even his Chairness argues (in fact he said) that the current fiscal policy is totally unsustainable and needs to be overhauled ASAP or the country faces major instabilities. He was totally clear about that in his press adress a week or two ago. The way things are looking now, the country faces major instabilities whatever is done; huge spending cuts will generate a lot of civil unrest and no civil spending cuts will cause a bankruptcy of the state because seriously, the world isn't going to subsidize the US forever.

I think it would be a mistake to think that the unrest in the Middle East is surely an isolated incident and not a canary in the coal mine. It may be me, but the only places where civil unrest is absolutely zero is central Europe and Scandinavia. The rest is all at risk to some severe damage (don't know enough about South America but I guess it is the same).
 
Some good replies here. I agree we cannot fight the trend and the trend is clearly upsloping but we are going to have another bear market at some point, although it looks like a bear market will not be tolerated by the fed but the market has to be bigger than the fed.

I don't feel like adding any new positions unless I'm covered, its difficult for me to get long at this point. A very frustrating position to be in.

The other big problem out there that could send markets much lower are the state budget deficits. The states can't simply print money to pay for the ridiculous pension liabilities. Will we see civil unrest when states begin to go bankrupt and have to renegotiate union contracts??

I don't know if we continue to new highs or what the future holds but when the market does crack the first few days will be the most brutal ensuring that the small timers get their money taken away.
 
Quote from daveyc:



What do you think will break this bull market? And, how are you preparing for any 'potential' bear market?

Dave
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1. When futures get bid down to create a gap on the equity index, and the market then trades down all day, creating a negative candle (red day) and DOES NOT retrace to fill the gap.

2. When earnings season ends and bulls can no longer keep buying pressure up to hold their gains.

3. When QE2 ends on June 30th and/or Uncle Ben raises interest rates, whichever comes first.

4. When CNBC talking heads repeatedly begin to cite "profit taking" on red days yet continue touting it's still a "buying opportunity" on the way down.

5. Any or all of the above.

Also, AAPL holds up the Nasdaq and also is heavily weighted on the S&P. If Steve Jobs faces an unfortunate passing, then watch AAPL to see how it trades on the news.

Until then, it's a matter of how you interpret the charts. The market is making it easy to stay long, and difficult to stay short.
 
Here's another one: High profile IPO's.

Facebook wasn't really an IPO but it's the same difference. Then we have a bunch of other internet companies like Pandora and some other stuff I can't remember. Anyway, it might not be quite there yet, but these things are definitely trending upward.
 
Quote from goodgoing:

There is no trend. If you consider the future hyperinflated target of 100K basis Dow, current movement if almost flat.
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There is very little evidence outside of speculative instruments (commodity futures) that there is worrying (let alone hyper)inflation ANYWHERE in the developed countries. It's a fairy tale m8. I think the very recent inflation that has been noted by sources like BPP can be attributed to inflation expectations which should subside very rapidly if the FED will unwind the easy money policy.

Also, Alan Greenspan's FED board looked into the predictive value gold had on inflation and it turned out there was some merit to it as a leading inflation indicator. Gold hasn't done much the past two quarters.
 
Quote from Locutus:

There is very little evidence outside of speculative instruments (commodity futures) that there is worrying (let alone hyper)inflation ANYWHERE in the developed countries.
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if u haven't felt it means u haven't got a wife nor have to manage a household, so go ask your mum or dad, doesn't get more down to earth than that, little evidence in developed countries? are u staying in this developed countries? try traveling a bit might open your eyes
 
Quote from dtan1e:

if u haven't felt it means u haven't got a wife nor have to manage a household, so go ask your mum or dad, doesn't get more down to earth than that, little evidence in developed countries? are u staying in this developed countries? try traveling a bit might open your eyes
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Indeed I haven't got a wife and thank god do not manage a household.

Other than that, ordinary people ALWAYS complain about inflation because they think "life is getting more expensive". My parents complained when I was a kid, my grandparents complained when they were kids and so forth. You're probably a lot better off looking at more substantial measures of inflation rather than listening to your wife whine.

Also I obviously am not denying inflation in developing countries but that is logical because they are developing and have (relatively) booming economies (how long that will last I don't know but for the moment) which in itself can spark inflation. Their CB's are also tightening. The only relevant CB's which are not tightening are the ECB and the FED.
 
Quote from ScalperJoe:

1. When futures get bid down to create a gap on the equity index, and the market then trades down all day, creating a negative candle (red day) and DOES NOT retrace to fill the gap.

2. When earnings season ends and bulls can no longer keep buying pressure up to hold their gains.

3. When QE2 ends on June 30th and/or Uncle Ben raises interest rates, whichever comes first.

4. When CNBC talking heads repeatedly begin to cite "profit taking" on red days yet continue touting it's still a "buying opportunity" on the way down.

5. Any or all of the above.

Also, AAPL holds up the Nasdaq and also is heavily weighted on the S&P. If Steve Jobs faces an unfortunate passing, then watch AAPL to see how it trades on the news.

Until then, it's a matter of how you interpret the charts. The market is making it easy to stay long, and difficult to stay short.
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1) could be or not be a buying opportunity. I'd like to see some follow through.

2) already caked in

3) Don't we wish it was this easy. We would see selling pressure way before that date and we have not seen any.

4) CNBC, cmon meng
 
Quote from Locutus:

Indeed I haven't got a wife and thank god do not manage a household.

Other than that, ordinary people ALWAYS complain about inflation because they think "life is getting more expensive". My parents complained when I was a kid, my grandparents complained when they were kids and so forth. You're probably a lot better off looking at more substantial measures of inflation rather than listening to your wife whine.

Also I obviously am not denying inflation in developing countries but that is logical because they are developing and have (relatively) booming economies (how long that will last I don't know but for the moment) which in itself can spark inflation. Their CB's are also tightening. The only relevant CB's which are not tightening are the ECB and the FED.
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u don't know a single thing about developing countries or developed countries inflation, heck, u just some kid trying to look cool, i've had enough, kids nowadays !!
 
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