What was your "a-ha!" moment?

[schizo]

What do you exactly mean by traps? What you describe sounds a bit like penny stock pump and dump. From my knowledge you trade ES?

For me, a "trap" is defined as a sudden reversal that traps (or rather tricks) traders in the process. This naturally will force them to cover their losses and that, in turn, will accelerate the rally in the other direction (akin to short covering rallies).

So instead of asking myself, "Do I see a trend forming?", I now ask "Could this be a trap?" (Of course, I've always been somewhat a skeptic so this ain't no big surprise ). I believe they call this negative reinforcement in science.

Needless to say, trading is not about strategy per se. It's more about mind control. Those who are able to see (or read the mind) of the other party first will win the game.

“All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.” ― Sun tzu, The Art of War

 

[schizo]

Can one have a 'a-ah' moment (or many!) and still struggling making money?
If yes, then that 'a-ah' was a false one?
Idk, just asking.

Well, in the first post, I did specifically stated "a-ha moments that propelled your trading higher", namely, ones that took your trading to the next level and made you money. IDK, just saying.

...share your moment of epiphany that propelled your trading higher.

 

[TheDawn]

Can one have a 'a-ah' moment (or many!) and still struggling making money?
If yes, then that 'a-ah' was a false one?
Idk, just asking.

Well considering that trading is a life-long endeavours and constantly changes according to everything, multiple "a-ah" moments are possible and they don't even happen when you are losing money. You can have "a-ah" moments when you are profiting as well that help you improve your trading.

 

[semperfrosty]

earlier on i had the "fortune" of working alongside someone, who let's just say, got their job solely on the basis of their connections (there was no other plausible explanation lol)

they were the best reverse indicator ever, no joke

after a while, i got to really analyzing why they were making those calls - like no "normal" person could be wrong that much, >90% of the time.

i realized it was a combo of a few things
1) their analysis was flimsy, eg. they cherry picked a few easy-to-understand tidbits/ talking lines & made it their whole reasoning
2) once they formed an opinion about something, they did not budge, ever
3) they were deeply insecure & always needed to be in trades which made them "look good" at the moment, eg. becoming super bullish on Netflix at the very peak, when the "cool crowd" was bragging about how much they made on holding Netflix, but they were late to the party and getting in just as the others were cashing out

so i knew a good starting point would be,
1') to work harder than the next guy, eg. not stop at the easy stuff that everyone knows
2') not be fixated on any opinion, eg. many "thematic stories" don't materialize anyways, we just pretend to agree & cash in, then gtfo when the facade has popped to move onto the next thing
3') to be secure even in doing "uncool" trades which are "uncool" in the moment but in retrospect very profitable/ at the very least not insecure & see through the BS that people are always selling, ie not be anyone's exit liquidity

Good post!

 

[Drawdown Addict]

There's a reason why most brokers don't offer a demo account for options trading, and that reason is simply because price discovery happens in that market.

If you want to test your strategies there you have to commit some funds to it.

 

[schizo]

There's a reason why most brokers don't offer a demo account for options trading, and that reason is simply because price discovery happens in that market.

If you want to test your strategies there you have to commit some funds to it.

I think just knowing these 2 things alone is enough when it comes to price discovery: HL and LH. Ya don't need any fancy gadgets or sophisticated greeks.

Stick with HLs in an uptrend and LHs in a downtrend.

 

[traider]

I think just knowing these 2 things alone is enough when it comes to price discovery: HL and LH. Ya don't need any fancy gadgets or sophisticated greeks.

Stick with HLs in an uptrend and LHs in a downtrend.

what if trend changes?

 

[schizo]

what if trend changes?

Then it goes from HL to LH, and vice versa.

Of course, the caveat is that it ain't THAT easy. So I encourage you to think for yourself. There are many variations you can play with this.

 

[traider]

Then it goes from HL to LH, and vice versa.

Of course, the caveat is that it ain't THAT easy. So I encourage you to think for yourself. There are many variations you can play with this.

I had a lot of difficulty identifying trend reversal in shorter time frame. Do you find this to be the case as well?

 

[schizo]

I had a lot of difficulty identifying trend reversal in shorter time frame. Do you find this to be the case as well?

Well, consider it this way. Prices, or each bar or candle (or a set of candles), tell stories--à la Al Brooks. If you're able to read these stories, then you should have a fairly good idea where (and when) prices reverse. This is where the notion of "traps" comes into play.

What about you? Care to elaborate on what method you use?