What Was The Most Simple Edge That Worked For You?

[PCanyon]

What edge worked for you that was really simple?

Back when the S&P was a burly $500 per pt there was a simple market fade that worked week after week.

On Friday you just faded the opening with a $1000 stop. If Friday opened up from Thursday's close you shorted and vice versa.

It apparently worked because at the time there was tremendous focus on Thursday's money supply figures, released after the market closed. There was no night session at the time. The market seemed to over react on the open to the numbers.

If I recall, I worked this from around 1986 to 1988 and then like many edges, it deteriorated.

 

[ChaosNSX]

edge or hedge?

 

[whitster]

the most simple edge?

(i trade YM)

NOT entering a trade unless the odds are greatly in my favor

one huge advantage we have (as traders of index futures) over mutual funds etc. is the advantage of standing aside.

also seen is the advantage of quickly getting in and out, which as an individual, with a small account is possible. not possible when u are moving hundreds of millions or billions of dollars.

 

[coolweb]

Quote from whitster:

the most simple edge?

(i trade YM)

NOT entering a trade unless the odds are greatly in my favor

one huge advantage we have (as traders of index futures) over mutual funds etc. is the advantage of standing aside.

also seen is the advantage of quickly getting in and out, which as an individual, with a small account is possible. not possible when u are moving hundreds of millions or billions of dollars.

These are not edges, more like requirements.

 

[Bitstream]

tradin' earnings reports

 

[Pekelo]

Keeping it simple. Sometimes the most ridiculously simple idea works the best...

 

[Martin Gale]

Quote from whitster:



NOT entering a trade unless the odds are greatly in my favor

Exactly. And those who don't know how to quantify the odds are trading blind.

 

[md2952]

IN From 1999 to 2001, if the market had a bid(some of the short bounces were great) I would filter stocks that opened lower and as soon as they crossed the open I would buy. If correlated index was turning higher also. I also used to wait until 10am, after the noise of the open, and than put positions on. Cheers.

 

[alanm]

Quote from Bitstream:

tradin' earnings reports

Can you be more specific? While I do this routinely, I find it quite complex, and am often wrong. Current erns, forward guidance, charges, who asks the questions in the conference call, and the nuances in the answers they get, all of which can move stocks by full percentage points. Tonight's ACN action is a good example.

 

[Bitstream]

Quote from alanm:

Can you be more specific? While I do this routinely, I find it quite complex, and am often wrong. Current erns, forward guidance, charges, who asks the questions in the conference call, and the nuances in the answers they get, all of which can move stocks by full percentage points. Tonight's ACN action is a good example.

play attention to revenue and fcast; eps has very little weight..stock can beat by a mile on eps and yet come short or meet on revenue or fcast: nose dive.
if report is after hours wait for followin' mornin' and buy at open or at first retracement...it can go against u and have to give some room but do not worry much if u keep 'till 3.00 o'clock or sometimes 'till close; statistically it will keep risin'.
look back at all the stocks that had positive reports and see how they reacted, there's a pattern there: I suggest u to keep a database of charts for stocks that beat earnings, it will help a lot for guidance on your trades for qtrly reports to come. on a note nyse stocks are much more trendy on reports and buy at open carry lesser risk than naz stocks.