https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/trend-following-is-not-predicting.294134/page-3#post-4175252I definitely agree with this. -- i don't even try to predict the (far) future...it's basically gambling to me.
I personally find it way easier to predict the DOW or SPY's day movement, before the market opens.
What to expect by the end of 2016?
- Thread starter Jamie J.
- Start date
Of course, being logical, I had no choice but to read this book. Ordered it from Amazon this am. It's your fault.
- No, no, you are not thinking, you are just being logical.
Niels Bohr
- In response to those who made purely formal or mathematical arguments, as quoted in What Little I Remember (1979) by Otto Robert Frisch, p. 95
(i did not read it) Just my personal opinion...(for long term investment):
1. Stagnant market until the fall/elections.
2. Fibonacci sequence of EIGHT YEAR directional up cycle completes (2009-2016).
3. Bear market pullback of 20%+ thereafter, (post elections or in 2017).
4. When the S&P has its bear market pullback, BUY!
5. History will repeat, and the market will recover, regardless of the reason for the draw.
In the meantime, just trade anything with volatility!
I'm just interested in your thoughts. Maybe you have some suggestions as to what could change or what you would like to see by the end of this year.I definitely agree with this. -- i don't even try to predict the (far) future...it's basically gambling to me.
I personally find it way easier to predict the DOW or SPY's day movement, before the market opens.
Do you really think that the market could crash? I wonder how do you imagine it?Donald Trump wins the election, stock market crashes.