What to do? Whom to trust? Whom to follow? How to survive? How to do it better?

[intradaybill]

Quote from baro-san:

Imagine that a foreign power took over the world (I won't name names). You don't know its customs or language and you have to survive among them. There's no way out! There are others like you who were there for awhile. Most of them claim to have experience in dealing successfully with the occupiers. They all are very secretive and self important.

Almost all tell you:
"When somebody hits you, retreat" = use stops; some prefer "grunt", "punch", "hit you twice", etc.
"When you get a slice of bread, take it and run" = use targets; some prefer "half a slice, "three crumbs", etc.

But they have different plans:
"Do what others do" = follow the trend
"When others do something be ready to do the opposite" = enter for counter-trend
"When you hear 'wa' twice, try to take that slice of bread" = use indicators
"Watch only the bread slices, nothing else" = use price action

Others wisely caution:
"Occupiers behave always unexpectedly, there's no rule" = market is random

Some that seem even wiser say:
"To get a slice of bread don't risk more than a slap, for three crumbs run at the first grunt" = money management

There's also an old man who speaks in very long and contorted phrases; you stretch your brain and patience to understand what he means; he seems to say:
"I'll teach you the occupiers' language and customs, and they'll become your friends; no strings attached; you just have to do the work"

Obviously there are also plenty of trolls jumping around you, shouting concerned with your well being.

What to do? Whom to trust? Whom to follow? How to survive? How to do it better?

LOL

This is why people invented math. So you don't need to hear anyone else's story about reality. Use math and you will see the truth. If you don't know math or you cannot use a math tool, you have no chance. Everything is game theory, dynamic programming or if you are lucky linear programming and if you are extremely lucky maybe linear regression.

Trading is simple in theory. If you cannot come up with a high probability trade which has high expectation then you need to stay away or risk ruin.

The problem is how to find high probability trades. Charts will deceive you and all indicators with them. The market rulers will show you nice charts and good indicator values all the time to make you bite the bait. You need to have a measure of the probability that they are lying.

You have to study many markets all the time and look for high probability trades. If you start looking at charts you will burn out and lose your money at the end. You need some automated means of mining the markets for high probability trades (See Renaissance Technologies ). You either develop it yourself or pay for it. Nothing will come easy. The market has no patience for those who do not understand the cardinal rule of investment: zero down - zero profit. You can't make money just by using your slow mind which is subject to all sorts of emotions and illusions and some free charting packages. You need serious tools and if you cannot develop them or buy them, stay away, or your end is maybe near unless you get very lucky (3 - 6 sigma). Here are some tools to start with:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2968698#post2968698