What the hell is causing this extreme constant bullish move in the Dow??!

Quote from murrica:

Beat me to it.
More...

Back in the day when I would participate in day trading chat rooms, there was often discussion about how traders have 'gone home for the weekend' at this time (late Friday).

I wonder if, now, the computers have gone home. Maybe they are bored.
 
Quote from tradingjournals:

spy 150.24, vxx at 22.70. Let the sell off start now that the hindsight ers have become bullish.
More...

A sell-off would be required to keep the long term bullish channel going. All sustained trending markets require corrections and retracements - it's a must. In fact, it looks like a probablility that we will sell off given where the market is in relationship to the upper channel line. There will certainly be serious buyers in the 143-145 range at the bottom of the channel. But the sell-off will not deter the bulls until we fail off from the current long term bullish channel - which would be in the 130-ish range. If we spend serious time under the channel, the longs will liquidate and fresh shorts will develop - that would be the scenario that reverses the trend underway since early 2009. The bear trap in mid-2011 left a big mark.

Timeframes. It's all about timeframes. A sell-off opportunity to the retail trader is a buying opportunity for the institutional investor.

Retail types have alot of animosity towards trends, largely because they think they know what a trend is but in reality not so much.

For every upleg in this trend there has been a downleg. And every downleg is the beginning of a bear market proclamation from the retail set. But in the space of three years we went from 70 to 150. Higher highs and higher lows. Classic bullish trend channel.

Maybe the smart thing to do is to let the market fail off on this trend channel and then call it a bear market. That's all I have ever said about this. I'm not hindsight bullish - I am presenting the reality of how the collective prices this market and what they think is fair value. The market is not telling us that it is selling off at the moment. The market is not telling us that a bear trend is upon us. Price is truth.

<a href="http://www.freeimagehosting.net/9tbwa"><img src="http://www.freeimagehosting.net/newuploads/9tbwa.png"></a>
 
Quote from 1a2b3cppp:

Trends are great after the fact.

The first problem is defining a trend.

Is it a series of HHs and HLs?

Is it based on the slope of a MA?

Is it based on time?

The second problem is that just because a trend exists based on whatever definition you are using does not mean it is any more likely to continue in that direction than it is to reverse at any given point. The concept of a "trend" basically says "because price is higher than it was previously, it is more likely to continue to go up."

I have tested some super profitable systems that were "trend following". The problem is that when they weren't making huge profits they were getting chopped to death. If only there was a reliable way of knowing if a trend was going to continue or reverse at the moment of entry.

Following the trend (regardless of how you define it) works great except when it doesn't.

If you believe a trend can be defined in such a way as to lead to profitable trading over time, I would be interested in following your journal with live calls in the journal forum.
More...

Ok.Let me say first off that i respect your comments and it is in that spirit that i'll answer them as far as i can.

1) There is nothing in it for me whatsoever in running a journal here so i'm not going to......

2) I worked too damned hard on this to ever give a bunch of strangers on the net a free lunch.NoDoji isn't giving anything away either.She is just regurgitating Al Brooks for people too lazy to even read the book themselves.Otherwise what do they need her for?.... inspiration?...maybe

Your post gives me the impression that you are still searching for answers.still defining exactly what it is you do.(apologies if i'm wrong)This should not be confused with the often quoted phrase "a trader never stops learning" rather,it should be a case of honing and refining your existing skillset.
In trading as in many things there is an X factor.For GS the X factor is fraud,corruption,manipulation and inside information.
My X factor is i can read a market.Screen time gives you that.Otherwise you need to progamme a computor or invent a set of merchanical rules and concentrate on trade management as your edge.
Hence Nodoji needs a set of rigid rules or she experiences (still) emotional episodes that some professionals would probably find amusing.
A really obstinate person,a person who just wont give up could get there just by not repeating every mistake in the book (not the Al Brookes book)and get there by default..and then start the honing refining process.
I should know.The right answers.the answers to the questions you posed only come with the right questions..obviousley.
But i guess i always knew that the factor apart from money (least important) is time (far more important since you can never get it back).
So it's your choice (everyone) whether you choose to spend it attempting to decipher the ravings of a lunatic (Hershey) because you're so desperate not to think for yourself or........not.
It's your choice (everyone) whether to believe that the slope of a MA will tell you what must come next..if it doesn't what the hell is it doing on your chart?It's your choice whether to believe a bar formation means anything to you on a 1 min timeframe.
It's your choice to go short the Dow when the market is incredibly strong because you believe it should'nt be going up-then you can announce to everyone that your years of experience have taught you to do the opposite of what the market is doing and tell "trend followers" to "fuck off" and expect people to say wow spanish i'm really looking forward to your second journal. (you thieving,arrogant cocky little amateur prat)
A great starting point for struggling traders is to eliminate from your plan all the stupidest ideas you can come up with.Look to ET for inspiration.
Winners make their own rules.Losers attempt to follow them and fail.
 
Quote from bone:

When I started trading in the early 90's it was in the Treasury Bond Pit evening session as a scalper.

I really never started to be able to build capital until I began to spread trade the treasuries. When Project A came along and the new age of electronic markets emerged - then it became possible for me to make a real "go" at it.

I still had to stare at the futures screen and the cash market screens and I had to anticipate scenarios and work bids and offers because back in those days I had no choice but to leg spread legs manually - so in that sense the fact that I started out scalping in my career really helped my spread trade execution.

My guess is that these days a competent point-and-click manual scalper would have to have excellent anticipation skills and will have built multiple scenarios in their mind before their trade entry because of the speed and turbulence in today's highly automated flat price markets. That's my guess.

I don't think that "scalpers" these days are by practice the same that the term originally meant 15 years ago - when a "scalper" was literally an independent trader who participated in the marketplace to buy bids, sell offers, and quote to the brokers.

Nope, these days scalpers would be more accurately categorized as "hit and run opportunists". That's my personal feeling about it at least.
More...

Today i added the ZNH3 to my 4 instruments (ES, 6E, 6J, ZN) to do "intraday swing" trades. ZN has become very liquid. Today the ES and ZN were neck and neck...1,570M each rounded. Tens and the 30 like to be traded in 8 tick increments, 8, 16, 24 and a handle. WELCOME back interest rates!! A quick word about trends..........."without a trend, you have no friend"

Bone, your description of scalping, then and now is spot on. Us old timers traded commodities when it was "NOT FOR PUBLIC USE", HA (and commissions in ZN, Zb are sweeter than currencies.........like that )
 
Just curious, but does anyone here believe that the market would be where it is today without the Fed printing over $1T a year?
 
Quote from Tsing Tao:

Just curious, but does anyone here believe that the market would be where it is today without the Fed printing over $1T a year?
More...

Does it matter?
 
Quote from MADASINHATTER:

Ok.Let me say first off that i respect your comments and it is in that spirit that i'll answer them as far as i can.

1) There is nothing in it for me whatsoever in running a journal here so i'm not going to......

2) I worked too damned hard on this to ever give a bunch of strangers on the net a free lunch.NoDoji isn't giving anything away either.She is just regurgitating Al Brooks for people too lazy to even read the book themselves.Otherwise what do they need her for?.... inspiration?...maybe

Your post gives me the impression that you are still searching for answers.still defining exactly what it is you do.(apologies if i'm wrong)
More...

My trading has nothing to do with trend following because the trend cannot be defined (as per my example above) and even if it could be defined, there is nothing to suggest that just because it has been going up it will continue to do so after I enter.

This should not be confused with the often quoted phrase "a trader never stops learning" rather,it should be a case of honing and refining your existing skillset.
In trading as in many things there is an X factor.For GS the X factor is fraud,corruption,manipulation and inside information.
My X factor is i can read a market.Screen time gives you that.Otherwise you need to progamme a computor or invent a set of merchanical rules and concentrate on trade management as your edge.
Hence Nodoji needs a set of rigid rules or she experiences (still) emotional episodes that some professionals would probably find amusing.
A really obstinate person,a person who just wont give up could get there just by not repeating every mistake in the book (not the Al Brookes book)and get there by default..and then start the honing refining process.
I should know.The right answers.the answers to the questions you posed only come with the right questions..obviousley.
But i guess i always knew that the factor apart from money (least important) is time (far more important since you can never get it back).
So it's your choice (everyone) whether you choose to spend it attempting to decipher the ravings of a lunatic (Hershey) because you're so desperate not to think for yourself or........not.
It's your choice (everyone) whether to believe that the slope of a MA will tell you what must come next..if it doesn't what the hell is it doing on your chart?It's your choice whether to believe a bar formation means anything to you on a 1 min timeframe.
It's your choice to go short the Dow when the market is incredibly strong because you believe it should'nt be going up-then you can announce to everyone that your years of experience have taught you to do the opposite of what the market is doing and tell "trend followers" to "fuck off" and expect people to say wow spanish i'm really looking forward to your second journal. (you thieving,arrogant cocky little amateur prat)
A great starting point for struggling traders is to eliminate from your plan all the stupidest ideas you can come up with.Look to ET for inspiration.
Winners make their own rules.Losers attempt to follow them and fail.
More...

That was a long post but you really didn't say anything other than "I have the secret and you don't and I'm not telling you."

At any rate, no one believes anyone on this forum unless they make real time calls on trades, but I'm glad you've got it figured out and are a successful trader.

Why are you on this forum, though? Do you need something to do after you finish counting your money each day so you come make fun of noob traders on ET?
 
Quote from newwurldmn:

Does it matter?
More...


More thananyone can imagine.

Think of the gov suppport as building potential energy.

At some point any amount of support is not going to be able to support this fake situation.

then you get to see kinetic energy give the market a ride.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top