What the hell is causing this extreme constant bullish move in the Dow??!

[NoDoji]

Quote from spanish89:

P.S My stoploss has already been moved to breakeven,
as i shorted the right corner of a head n shoulders formation,
and trade is already 45points profit...

So you shorted it on 1/20 and yesterday you "just moved my stoploss for dow to 13,814 and adjusted target order to 13,608".

It looks to me like you got stopped out.

EDIT: Never mind, you already posted that.

 

[nillionaire]

Quote from spanish89:

My trading style is FADING extremely over-bought or over-sold moves in the market...

What I have learned in the market is that there is no such thing as "overbought" and "oversold".

 

[bone]

Quote from spanish89:

I already closed that trade at 13,804..

Have re-sold at 13,866.

Also got my dax short open still.


What trades have you livecalled though??

When did you do this "live" again ? Your message timestamp and the charting for the Dow future and the Dow ETF and the Websters Dictionary term for the word "live" in English and the Spanish translation to "vi" are all very inconsistent.

Maybe you are doing this in something other than the Dow future or the Dow ETF ?

 

[tradingjournals]

It looks like you became bullish and let everyone know it right at the top (SPY=150).

 

[failed_trad3r]

what goes up, wil go down!!!
we are OVERBOUGHT

 

[1a2b3cppp]

I don't know what is going on in this thread, but "taking a trade when a system gives you signals" is prediction.

You are predicting price will do one thing (as opposed to something else), otherwise you wouldn't have signals and you wouldn't listen to them.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from 1a2b3cppp:

I don't know what is going on in this thread, but "taking a trade when a system gives you signals" is prediction.

You are predicting price will do one thing (as opposed to something else), otherwise you wouldn't have signals and you wouldn't listen to them.

Basically, what the TA folks like NoDoji are saying is that they do not know the outcome of any individual trade, nor do they care-- however, their edge is so slight that it takes a series of trades to create it, not any one trade. Therefore, say out of 50 entries, enough of them will be positive to create profit but anyone trade has a random outcome. Please TA'rs correct me if I misunderstood.

My contention is the same results would be achieved by taking random long entries, particullarly is a bullish environment, than waiting for a TA set up over a long series of trades. surf

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from 1a2b3cppp:

I don't know what is going on in this thread, but "taking a trade when a system gives you signals" is prediction.

You are predicting price will do one thing (as opposed to something else), otherwise you wouldn't have signals and you wouldn't listen to them.

This is a common misconception.

Taking a trade when a system signals is what you have to do to fulfill the prediction that you will be profitable over a series of trades if you keep doing what your system tells you to do.

When putting on any individual trade, you have no idea about that individual trade, about whether or not price will do one thing as opposed to something else.

If anyone could predict what price will do on individual trades, s/he would be incredibly wealthy very quickly.

Yes, you can make a prediction, but you will be right sometimes and wrong sometimes in your prediction. It's the overall odds that equal success. Once you learn to think like a professional trader, there is no right or wrong on individual trades.

ADD: My largest losing trade today was one where I would've predicted the odds achieving a full profit target were at least 90%.

One of my most profitable trades was a pure counter-trend trade where I was initially intending to scalp a very small profit.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from NoDoji:

This is a common misconception.

Taking a trade when a system signals is what you have to do to fulfill the prediction that you will be profitable over a series of trades if you keep doing what your system tells you to do.

When putting on any individual trade, you have no idea about that individual trade, about whether or not price will do one thing as opposed to something else.

If anyone could predict what price will do on individual trades, s/he would be incredibly wealthy very quickly.

Yes, you can make a prediction, but you will be right sometimes and wrong sometimes in your prediction. It's the overall odds that equal success. Once you learn to think like a professional trader, there is no right or wrong on individual trades.

ADD: My largest losing trade today was one where I would've predicted the odds achieving a full profit target were at least 90%.

One of my most profitable trades was a pure counter-trend trade where I was initially intending to scalp a very small profit.

It sounds like you could just randomly enter in the past direction of the market ( bullish day go long) and achieve the exact results. Money management is where its at, not TA based entries. surf

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Basically, what the TA folks like NoDoji are saying is that they do not know the outcome of any individual trade, nor do they care-- however, their edge is so slight that it takes a series of trades to create it, not any one trade. Therefore, say out of 50 entries, enough of them will be positive to create profit but anyone trade has a random outcome. Please TA'rs correct me if I misunderstood.

My contention is the same results would be achieved by taking random long entries, particullarly is a bullish environment, than waiting for a TA set up over a long series of trades. surf

Yes, that is correct. In fact, the edge can be negative if the risk:reward is sufficient to overcome the negative edge.

Geez more than doubled his $70K day trading account in one year with a 48% win rate, but a 1.8 to 1 money management advantage.

Taking random long entries in a bullish environment (if the entries are truly random), with a R:R similar to or better than that would very likely achieve positive results.

You can test that theory by printing a bullish uptrending chart, blindfolding someone and having them mark on it from left to right with a pencil.

Assume every mark is a long entry and choose a profit target twice the stop loss.