What the hell is causing this extreme constant bullish move in the Dow??!

[trefoil]

Quote from lorax2013:

Wow pure genius, guess we don't need to buy your trading system... Umm.. just to be clear here - you do realize that the market continues making the higher highs in multiple timeframes UNTIL it inevitably peaks and drops? I think the general argument being made here has been that nobody can easily predict when the peak will occur. Lots of people thought they were geniuses during the dotcom bubble for example - until it crashed. But you still give no explanation for how you predict the peak. You say you can't predict the future movement but at the same time basically say "uh, it has been going up so I buy and ride the trend" - pure genius.

Ride it hard until it screams.

They don't call it a blowoff top fer nuthin ya know...

 

[marketsurfer]

Trend Following is the yuppie term for buy and hope. Just look at the drawdowns of the trend kings and see for yourself.

surf

Whereas, Trend Anticipation is the key term in the Price Drivers system

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from 1a2b3cppp:

Slight upward bias over time in the indices.

dats called an upward drift, been going on since 1792.

surf

 

[bone]

Quote from lorax2013:

Wow pure genius, guess we don't need to buy your trading system... Umm.. just to be clear here - you do realize that the market continues making the higher highs in multiple timeframes UNTIL it inevitably peaks and drops? I think the general argument being made here has been that nobody can easily predict when the peak will occur. Lots of people thought they were geniuses during the dotcom bubble for example - until it crashed. But you still give no explanation for how you predict the peak. You say you can't predict the future movement but at the same time basically say "uh, it has been going up so I buy and ride the trend" - pure genius.

And I have gone out of my way, in repeated posts in multiple threads, to say in no uncertain terms that I do not predict peaks. Furthermore, I say in multiple posts and in multiple threads that predicting peaks is not necessary - and in fact, my models and the strategy I teach to clients is to let the deep pockets turn the market and to not try to time highs and lows. We intentionally sacrifice trading range in exchange for signal confirmation. And, mind you, we trade spreads which model for more trending price action than outright flat price markets.

Thanks for highjacking an obvious Dr. Suess handle and swimming in the cesspool of pollution that the fable rails against.

You are clearly a dolt without original thought.

P.S. : In five years of existence you have 190 posts under your belt - and every post is a critique without any contribution to trading science or a constructive thought. I looked through your posts - and you are a bitch, Sir. A sniper who can't shoot straight and by the looks of your previous post contents you sport saggy granny tits.

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Quote from Lucrum:

You lost me. Again, you seem a little too desperate to demonize trend following.

I tried to keep it simple.

I will try one more time.

Trend followers say "the trend is your friend," right?

Trend followers are strongly anti-bottom picking, right?

Therefore, you should only enter once a trend has been established, otherwise there is no trend and you are probably just picking bottoms.

To simplify, trend following rules are:

1) identify the trend
2) enter in the direction of the trend

Right now, SPY is in an upward trend.

Therefore we have completed step 1.

Step 2 is to enter in the direction of the trend.

Why?

Because "the trend is your friend."

Therefore, trend followers would buy SPY right now.

I agree SPY is in an upward trend.

I disagree that makes it more likely to continue going up.

I'm not trying to demonize trend following. I just haven't ever seen a trend following system that works.

 

[burt_schroder]

Quote from lorax2013:

But you still give no explanation for how you predict the peak. You say you can't predict the future movement but at the same time basically say "uh, it has been going up so I buy and ride the trend" - pure genius. [/B]

What are you like?? Ever heard of trade management? Trailing stops?

Every sucker wants to assume the top or bottom. They should put more effort into trade management, and using the correct trade parameters/metrics.

 

[burt_schroder]

Quote from 1a2b3cppp:

I disagree that makes it more likely to continue going up.


Can you explain why though?

 

[bone]

Quote from 1a2b3cppp:
Therefore, trend followers would buy SPY right now.

Well, if true trend followers were buying SPY right now as you suggest, then they would be adding to an already very, very profitable position.

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Quote from bone:

Well, if true trend followers were buying SPY right now as you suggest, then they would be adding to an already very, very profitable position.

Depends on how early they defined the trend and on what time frame.

 

[bone]

Quote from 1a2b3cppp:

Depends on how early they defined the trend and on what time frame.

And I think that you just made the entire point of the thread IMHO.