What the hell is causing this extreme constant bullish move in the Dow??!

[bone]

RN, I do not think that you are lying. If you think I am calling you out, no offense and none was meant.

My point was that for the masses not as talented as you, let the deep pockets go ahead and turn the market before getting involved. In other words, for example, let the present and long standing bullish channel in the stock market fail off from a price action standpoint before initiating a short.

It's perfectly OK to not sell the high - that's all I am saying. And it would make more sense IMHO for most speculators.

RN, deep pockets certainly do create market exhaustion collectively. No arguement from me on that either.

Quote from Redneck:

So I take it, you think I’m lying

Questions;

For a turn to occur – shocks to the system not withstanding;

Do the big players position themselves first – for an impending turn? (the one they are creating)

If yes – wouldn't that leave tracks to follow / give away their plans?

=========================

If no – so you’re saying they are clueless and simply go along with the herd (granted some are... but there are a few who are not)

(since I’m holding $M's in a position – think I’ll use one mkt order to exit…, and another to re-enter… or better still – I’ll re-position myself a 100 measly shares at a time)

Come on Bone – I know you know better (or at least you should)

RN

 

[Redneck]

Quote from bone:

RN, I do not think that you are lying.

It's perfectly OK to not sell the high, all I am saying.

My bad, and I apologize Sir...

I also wholeheartedly agree about not needing to sell the high... or buy the low



Aside

God knows... I've certainly bought more than my fair share of highs... and sold my fair share of lows


RN

 

[BobbiDigital]

From what I've seen, no one on E.T. has given an ounce of information about where and when tops and bottoms form. The big players know these areas, they don't create them just cause, though they are a result of their prior actions.

It's a pain in the ass to find material that explains the dynamics of price action - namely how patterns form. Wonder why that is... Simple stuff, but without it you're wasting your time and money (looking at myself in the rear view mirror) No more! So long idiot!

 

[daniel33]

Quote from BobbiDigital:

From what I've seen, no one on E.T. has given an ounce of information about where and when tops and bottoms form.

Disagree, more than an ounce of gold has been shared in many posts and by many posters, but if the reader cannot notice the "shining metal" in the posts, then it goes unnoticed.

 

[BobbiDigital]

Eh.. havent heard too many rags to riches E.T. stories either. A nugget of gold is eventually spent...its not enough for a lifetime of profitability

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from 1a2b3cppp:

...even if you could manage to define a trend

I "define" them all the time

, it wouldn't do any good.

I disagree but that's OK.
Most of these types of discussions turn into an academic argument over semantics anyway.

Trends only exist in hindsight.

Not sure I totally agree.
Tops and bottoms certainly only exist with any certainty in hind sight.

If only there were some way to identify when a trend was about to begin.

Personally I don't really worry about, try to predict or even care about the next trend. I'm just looking for low risk entries where price is very likely to move at least enough for me to move by initial stop to break even or so.
I then make a judgment, based on my read of that move, whether to take a quick profit or let it ride because now the odds seem to favor I'll be able to catch a swing. I love catching a swing but don't and never did consider myself a trend trader. I also have no compunction about taking a small gain if the market seems to be no longer moving in my favor.

Markets have changed somewhat since I read this, but years ago supposedly markets are only trending between 15% and 30% of the time anyway.

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Well, I agree that you don't have to buy the bottom or sell the top.

I'd be happy with just the middle third

Of course, that requires entering after the first third, and the market can reverse at any point, so who knows if you're entering at the right point or if it's just gonna keep going down.

lol @ the vague posts.

But hey, if you guys have a trend following system that works for you, then by all means, keep using it!

If any of you want to move beyond the vague fortune cookie style riddle advice, my question would be this:

Once a trend has started (meaning you've defined it and can say "we are in a trend now which I can identify now although a few bars ago we were not yet in an established trend,") how do you know it will keep going versus randomly reversing as soon as you enter?

I've never seen a trend-identifying method (whether slopes, HH HL, indicators, certain patterns, etc.) that had any forecasting ability. Just because you have identified a trend (eg. "as of the close of this bar we are now in a trend that was not previously established prior to the close of this bar") doesn't mean it's going to keep going in the same direction.

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Quote from daniel33:

Disagree, more than an ounce of gold has been shared in many posts and by many posters, but if the reader cannot notice the "shining metal" in the posts, then it goes unnoticed.

rofl vague nonsense. Is the view awesome from on top of your guru mountain? How much do the fortune cookie companies pay you for your wisdom?

"gold is all around yet goes unnoticed by many!"

Or, you could've contributed to this thread with something helpful and specific.

 

[eurusdzn]

Bonds began selling off with QEternity. (Mid Nov) The down trend channel is becoming more obvious. Looking back further to JUL25 Drahgi OMT and euro tail risk gone it is a 6 month down channel. Fridays action alone snapped two weeks of surprising yeilds dropping with stocks rising.
Why not trend down continuation? 132 in the 10 year note is toast maybe, say goodbye. Lower low coming but lots of old traffic at 131.
Fed cant like rates ticking up but maybe the banks run the show. Steepening curve good for their profits. 130 next and then 128 March low. 128 is about 12bp/point so 40ish bp. higher.
So, in two months with SP500 higher and a 10 year auction
at 2.4% (1.94% today) , how long can that go on and keep the economy OK?
I see a three month and a 6 month trend in notes/bonds and
without systemic shocks US/Europe etc, and 85 tril/month this is a tradeable trend( counter-trend also) compared to ES recently.
And for the little retail amateur( I cant be the only one on ET)
ZF and ZN are better trading candidates on a daily chart( maybe hourly too) and avg about $100 and $400 movement a day respectively.
No way of telling how long trend will last IMHO but screw ES.

 

[Ol' Yella]

Quote from BobbiDigital:

Eh.. havent heard too many rags to riches E.T. stories either.

I don't think retail trading is a path to riches, unless the trader already had some wealth to begin with.

Maybe a way to make a living for some, but nothing extravagant.

For riches it would be better to try starting a business. Still a low chance of success but at least the chance is there.