what the hell happened!?!?

[kiwi_trader]

Quote from HurricaneUS:

You're being academic as if this is philosophy 101 but I'm being practical. As I said....the past is not indicative of the future when it comes to trading. All trading systems ultimately fail....ALL

Whether you have ever traded successfully will dictate your response.

Actually Cutten is right. The past is very indicative of the future. What happens though is that elements of market behaviour mutate so simplistic and fixed views (your systems above) fail.

A good discretionary (even rule based discretionary) trader is monitoring the stack of conditions that create their edges and responds to the variations that occur. But the basics have been their since the beginning of the last century. Current markets are just as tradable to me - perhaps more than usually so.

 

[feng456]

ok im trying to figure out how to do monte carlo analysis...

lets say i have the following:

Jan 2011
5 pts
-5
5
-5
5
5
Total: 10 pts

Feb 2011
5 pts
-5
5
5
Total: 10 pts

March 2011

5
-5
-5
-5
-5
Total: -15 pts

how would i use YASAI to run monte carlo on this?

 

[abattia]

Quote from jazzguysoca:

... Here's a paper from the group I mentioned that describes the technique in more detail:
http://www.tradingblox.com/Files/MC_resampling_Nbars.pdf

Thanks for this reference. With respect to system design/analysis, does anyone have any feel for how general the following conclusions from the above paper are, or any other comments?

a) "Thus it is recommended to use ... 10 million resampled daily returns [for convergence]." (page 15)
... so if your actual curve has, say, 150 points then 67,000 MC simulations would be needed to give confidence of convergence?

b) "... as the portflio size is reduced, serial correlation in the equity curve is also reduced." (page 20)
... so, from the perspective of how serial correlation of returns affects MC results if not taken into account, the effect is less in any case when dealing with a single instrument rather than with a portfolio of instruments? -> MC sims for estimating Max DD etc are better on single instruments than on baskets? .... hmmmm but are instruments like ES or FDAX more like single instruments or portfolios from the serial correlations perspective???

 

[kut2k2]

Quote from HurricaneUS:

All trading systems ultimately fail....ALL

Unless you're just another one of his sockpuppets, it looks like intradaybill's crackpot meme has successfully infected ET.

This place gets worse every year.

 

[oldtime]

Quote from kut2k2:

Unless you're just another one of his sockpuppets, it looks like intradaybill's crackpot meme has successfully infected ET.

This place gets worse every year.

show us the system that doesn't ultimately fail. The only difference between the market and the crap table is the markets incredible propensity to trend. Either way, the true risk is the trader's willingness to play a system which will ultimately fail. That's why they call it risk.

Now go back to your calculations and persue your endless search for the system that won't eventually fail.

Like I said, the only one is Martingale, and that only applies if you have infinite money in a game with no limit.

 

[kut2k2]

Quote from oldtime:

show us the system that doesn't ultimately fail.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=231633

As long as the expectation is positive, there's no reason for the system to just go belly up.

 

[oldtime]

Quote from kut2k2:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=231633

As long as the expectation is positive, there's no reason for the system to just go belly up.

well hell, any system I design on a Saturday morning isn't going to go belly up unless I trade it too long.

Show me that system with positive expectancy. They only exist on chalkboards. Where are all the traders who own the world because they figured out a way to beat the market?

You keep doing what you're doing and you're going to end up with average results or go broke, over time.

 

[kut2k2]

Quote from oldtime:

well hell, any system I design on a Saturday morning isn't going to go belly up unless I trade it too long.

Show me that system with positive expectancy. They only exist on chalkboards. Where are all the traders who own the world because they figured out a way to beat the market?

You keep doing what you're doing and you're going to end up with average results or go broke, over time.

WTF! Nobody with a system that works is just going to hand it over to you.

If you don't believe there are any successful traders, why are you here?

 

[oldtime]

Quote from kut2k2:

WTF! Nobody with a system that works is just going to hand it over to you.

If you don't believe there are any successful traders, why are you here?

you don't need a successful system to be a succesful trader

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Money/risk management is the most important key to successful trading. The one who loses the least, wins.--- Prudent money management never goes out of style.


Thank you for your time.