what the hell happened!?!?

Quote from Occam:

I think I see your point and you're right, as long as a 50/50 is what you really want -- in the long run, you'll get it.

I also think that the OP wanted something better than 50/50, so it's up to him/her to figure out whether he/she made some mistake in backtesting, slippage, etc., in concluding that something that "should have" been profitable in fact is not. That is where the hard work comes in for the OP, if he/she is up to the task.
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agreed, you sound like a good human being and I don't want to get into it with you, but I have gotten into it before when anybody mentions "hard work." If hard work had anything to do with it I should be the richest man alive.

The discussion of luck is more interesting to me, especially as how it seems to have no correaltion to how hard I work. I've heard all the sayings about luck being related to preperation and so forth, but I can never make the connection.

I believe luck is a force which can momentarily be harnessed.

otherwise, I agree with you, except for the part about "hard work."

ok, I've said enough about something I know nothing about. It doesn't sound like you need it, but if you ever do, good luck.
 
Quote from oldtime:

If hard work had anything to do with it I should be the richest man alive.
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It may have something to do with your limiting beliefs...........

:D
 
Quote from oldtime:

agreed, you sound like a good human being and I don't want to get into it with you, but I have gotten into it before when anybody mentions "hard work." If hard work had anything to do with it I should be the richest man alive.

The discussion of luck is more interesting to me, especially as how it seems to have no correaltion to how hard I work. I've heard all the sayings about luck being related to preperation and so forth, but I can never make the connection.

I believe luck is a force which can momentarily be harnessed.

otherwise, I agree with you, except for the part about "hard work."

ok, I've said enough about something I know nothing about. It doesn't sound like you need it, but if you ever do, good luck.
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Hard work is absolutely necessary but cruelly insufficient.

Luck has nothing to do with it.
 
ok to the guy who told me to have faith it wont ruin me blah blah...

it did ruin me.

my previous experience was also that sticking with the system in the end works...but the problem is the monthly net turned out to be twice as bad as the worst on record. it is as if everything turned upside down without a warning.

my leverage was probably too high but even if i was at 1 contract this is not sustainable.

i will be observing as well as doing some analysis in the coming weeks. most of my account is wiped out anyway.

also when i was testing out other systems, there have been many instances where a system suddenly went completely upside down...so it does happen and itWILL ruin you...unless you are trading 1 contract with 100,000 like certain people...
 
Quote from feng456:

ok to the guy who told me to have faith it wont ruin me blah blah...

it did ruin me.

my previous experience was also that sticking with the system in the end works...but the problem is the monthly net turned out to be twice as bad as the worst on record. it is as if everything turned upside down without a warning.

my leverage was probably too high but even if i was at 1 contract this is not sustainable.

i will be observing as well as doing some analysis in the coming weeks. most of my account is wiped out anyway.

also when i was testing out other systems, there have been many instances where a system suddenly went completely upside down...so it does happen and itWILL ruin you...unless you are trading 1 contract with 100,000 like certain people...
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oh well, another one bites the dust. I don't know who you think you were fooling, but you took the joke too far, now you are wiped out. Better come up with another skit where you pull yourself out of the ashes like a Phoenix.

Might I suggest a system you found on the internet that was quite expensive but really works.
 
Quote from oldtime:

well, good point, sounds like you thought it through, but if I am betting on a coin flip to eventually come out 50/50 heads to tails, what kind of sense does it make to quit betting when it comes out 70/30 against me?
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Solvency ?
 
Quote from oldtime:

agreed, you sound like a good human being and I don't want to get into it with you, but I have gotten into it before when anybody mentions "hard work." If hard work had anything to do with it I should be the richest man alive.
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My discussion of "hard work" is not meant to imply that working hard necessarily leads to trading success -- in fact, I've shared my opinion on this forum that the following ideas, frequently put forward on ET, are fallacies:

Bogus idea 1: By spending 10000's of hours watching a computer screen, you're likely to/entitled to become a profitable trader.

Bogus idea 2: Trading is "like any other profession", e.g. medicine or law, where you put in your time getting educated and "working hard" before some (implicitly guaranteed) success.

I think you'll agree with me that these ideas are completely bogus and misleading, and no doubt have cost 100,000's of hours and millions of dollars to peole who have posted on ET alone, not to mention others who have never heard of this site. (In fact, I think that readers of this site are less likely to fall prey to these types of ideas and/or snake oil salesmen, as ET contains lots of examples of both success and failure.)

By "hard work" in this thread, I mean that through significant effort, the OP can probably discover what went wrong with his/her system. I'd say that this is likely, given that he/she seems at least somewhat competent in these areas. But it looks like the OP has given up anyway, which could well be a rational decision, given what he/she knows and has experienced.
 
theres an old saying, no one looks at hearth(system) while poking the fire(market),make sure you have priorities in order,to avoid getting burnt
 
hey i havent given up at all guys. actually im trying to figure out how to do a Monte Carlo sim to see whats likely the worst drawdown I would experience. basically have it randomly pick trades in no particular order and see whats the tenth percentile of drawdown per month.

i am using YASAI to do this and so far i dont really understand most of how it works. i have had some help from abattia but he/shes probably tired of me bothering them so if anyone could tell me how to do it that would be great.

an example sample of my data would be:

5
3
-5
-5
-5
2
-5

thanks in advance.
 
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