What speaks for a stronger or weaker US Dollar within next 12 months ?

[TrAndy2022]

Want to discuss arguments pro or contra stronger USD within next 12 months here.

I have an indicator found why USD should be stronger or at least not much weaker within next 12 months. This is kind of overall market opinion here and should be understood as it.

Here is the article I find interesting:
https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/posts/2021/11/Inflation-vs-Interest-Rates.php

Attached some valuable charts here too. You see the spread of Inflation and 10y T-Notes bottomed right now or is on the lower end. That means much higher interest rates and thus a strong(er) USD.

 

[earth_imperator]

Don't forget the impact of the Midterms soon...

 

[TheDawn]

Want to discuss arguments pro or contra stronger USD within next 12 months here.

I have an indicator found why USD should be stronger or at least not much weaker within next 12 months. This is kind of overall market opinion here and should be understood as it.

Here is the article I find interesting:
https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/posts/2021/11/Inflation-vs-Interest-Rates.php

Attached some valuable charts here too. You see the spread of Inflation and 10y T-Notes bottomed right now or is on the lower end. That means much higher interest rates and thus a strong(er) USD.

View attachment 295374
View attachment 295375

Considering US is a net importer and not a net exporter, I would say a stronger USD is more preferable.

 

[TrAndy2022]

Anything speaks for a weaker USD ? As my position or opinion is a stronger USD too.

 

[Peter8519]

Currencies where its central banks cannot match the Fed rates, smart money will sell their currencies and buy USD. Unlikely the Fed will cut rates as long as the CPI remains high. So, USD will remain strong.

 

[TheDawn]

Anything speaks for a weaker USD ? As my position or opinion is a stronger USD too.

If one day US ever becomes a net exporter, then yeah a weaker USD will be more advantageous.