What should the VIX be at in order to sell options where RvR is worth it

[water7]

Yes, exactly. And this is also off topic but then there is the frequency issue. How often do you get to sell a 25 vol line nowadays? If vix prints 25 tomorrow we will be lucky if the 60/90 day implied/forward vol lifts to 19. So, I'd rather sell the 15-16 line and manage the risk hole into that lift. Those 3-4 extra handles I sold at 25 vix won't give me much sleep on a 50 vix print

do you hedge your vol? (at 15-16 line)

 

[jj90]

Yes, exactly. And this is also off topic but then there is the frequency issue. How often do you get to sell a 25 vol line nowadays? If vix prints 25 tomorrow we will be lucky if the 60/90 day implied/forward vol lifts to 19. So, I'd rather sell the 15-16 line and manage the risk hole into that lift. Those 3-4 extra handles I sold at 25 vix won't give me much sleep on a 50 vix print

If I understand you correctly in your post here, you are implicitly saying that vol regimes are auto correlated?

As in 15-16 line tends to see lower vol without a large spike while say a 25 vix print tends to see an increasing chance of a vol spike?

So you are able to hedge more effectively to a degree at lower vix levels because the distribution is not as wild?

 

[rallymode]

If I understand you correctly in your post here, you are implicitly saying that vol regimes are auto correlated?

As in 15-16 line tends to see lower vol without a large spike while say a 25 vix print tends to see an increasing chance of a vol spike?

So you are able to hedge more effectively to a degree at lower vix levels because the distribution is not as wild?

At 25 VIX there is really no hedging. All risk instruments have already blown up, you will be leaning on mean reversion. Nothing wrong with that if you size yourself properly and are able to time the turns. As for vol leading to more vol, that certainly has not been the case in recent years but I don't want to be a seller when it is. Not to say that I never go naked but there has to be something more than just vol being "high" to entice me into selling it. Like a dislocation for example that tends to happen when the liquidity starts to dry up.

 

[sle]

Funny, I think there are more dislocations across various forms of risk premium at the times of stress. I guess it depends on the exact strategies you're trading

 

[rallymode]

Funny, I think there are more dislocations across various forms of risk premium at the times of stress. I guess it depends on the exact strategies you're trading

But they are mostly of the short vol or long delta variety. Meaning you have to step in front of the selloff with a little bit of faith. Are you often finding "cheap" risk premium in times of stress?

 

[sle]

But they are mostly of the short vol or long delta variety. Meaning you have to step in front of the selloff with a little bit of faith. Are you often finding "cheap" risk premium in times of stress?

Cheap? No. Relatively cheap? All the time. I hear your point, it's that we do different things

 

[truetype]

There are several ways to attempt to measure fragility. This BAML graph illustrates the recent divergence.

Recent? Graph seems to end in 2015.

 

[tommcginnis]

At 25 VIX there is really no hedging. All risk instruments have already blown up, you will be leaning on mean reversion. Nothing wrong with that if you size yourself properly and are able to time the turns.

And "size" here means total $$ exposure, not some "number of contracts" or "width of longs vis shorts" or some such.

If you sell something for 50¢ at a 10 vol, and "something bad happens" and the vol pop takes things to a vol of 20+ and your 50¢ sale has to be re-purchased for $2.25 ("OOoowwwwwww!") -- the thing is, that in that same expiry, you can move a percent OR TWO away, and possibly get $1.90 for the same width ("net $$ @ risk"). If you were dealing in 5-lots, simply bumping that up to 6 nets you ≈ the same dollars.

Where things become a pain-in-the-butt, is when the daily burn (time; theta) is about equal to a daily slide down (re delta) and/or any "bump" in vol. *That*, if carried long enough, will find you with a spread worth the same as where you sold it, but now with a gamma-POP[!] ready to punch you right in the nose. So, I *try* to parachute out of that.