What Really Turned My Trading Around

For fun, I will analyze the 1st chart using PA, but normally would have my indicator to help confirm direction. Also, as noted, I am doing analyze after the fact, not on the hard right edge which is what needs to be done in real time.

In the 1st chart, the market is in a range. Profits can be made in a range. Thankfully, the range is big enough that it is not a barb wire which should be avoided. Next, the market breaks out of the range to the long side. It is possible to make money on breakouts just like failed breakouts.

Once the market confirmed breaking out, you would want to get in long and hope the trend carries your trade to the profit target. If you had 2 or more contracts, you could scale out.
 
Quote from chrh1234:

I understand and agree where you are going, especially about the need to perform well. This is why I work so much on the indicator, to give me very sound entries. Maybe we are disagreeing on other points as my intention is to let trades run for more than 1 day; I don't intend to 'day trade'/close my positions on a trading session basis.
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You don't understand him and he gave you great advice
 
Quote from oraclewizard77:

For fun, I will analyze the 1st chart using PA, but normally would have my indicator to help confirm direction. Also, as noted, I am doing analyze after the fact, not on the hard right edge which is what needs to be done in real time.

In the 1st chart, the market is in a range. Profits can be made in a range. Thankfully, the range is big enough that it is not a barb wire which should be avoided. Next, the market breaks out of the range to the long side. It is possible to make money on breakouts just like failed breakouts.

Once the market confirmed breaking out, you would want to get in long and hope the trend carries your trade to the profit target. If you had 2 or more contracts, you could scale out.
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Yup. You are right with many of your comments. You seem to see what I see too. About analysing only after the fact...this is also why I made the indicator in such a way it helps with the analysis in real time. I am always looking around if there are other traders with a similar approach; to let the indicator/computer do some analysis for you. Sort of like a decision assistance tool. Here's a sample view, I hope its not too messy :

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Quote from Illum:

You don't understand him and he gave you great advice
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Pardon me sir, I do understand him, every bit of it. Just that I chose to push my own boundaries harder, to test them and see the truth for myself, thats all. I appreciate sound advice like this, but I always insist on testing them myself. Its not that I distrust the advice; to test advice in this manner brings 2 advantages/outcomes :

1- if the advice is solid, further testing generally would provide further proof that the advice holds true.

2- if the advice is not solid as it seems, further testing will bring it the pre-assumption into question.

The only problem is that the means of testing has to be non-emotional, rational and non-biased. Like science and math.

One particular trader mentor strong encourages me to test very single assumption, even the so called hard truths we all know. Like 'cutting losses short' or 'letting the trade run'. When you see it again, it actually brings out more questions like :

Cut losses? How much is considered small? If I tell others its 20 pips, I also want to back this number '20' up.
 
Quote from SteveH:

Starting with multiple contracts and peeling them off as the trade goes your way does not give you "versatility". It forces you to have higher winning pcts to compensate for the full all-out losses you take on the immediate stop-outs. You are putting yourself under a lot of pressure to perform well a majority of the time.

You are far better off to either go all-in / all-out or add as the trade goes you way. You want the market to catch you at your worst when you're holding your lowest level of risk, not your greatest.

If you add as the trade goes your way in a strong trend, you can be profitable with as little as 30% long-term winners. If you go all-in / all-out within either trend segments or range-bound price action then 45-50% long-term winners can produce consistent profits.

On the contrary, if you go below around a 60% long-term winning pct with a contract peeling approach, you will not make it. The desire of a trader to win a majority of the time is rooted in emotion/ego, not the math.

Fantasy Land: high winning pct combined with a 2:1+ avg win/loss ratio. Why? Because the two have an inverse relationship.

What you never emotionally want to do in the markets works best: ADD in strong trends. On the CL, on a DAY TRADE with a 5 min chart, using only 1 contract positions where your highest initial capital risk of loss is $150-$200, you can accumulate a 4-10 contract position spanning from 1 to 2.5 pts which can yield $2500 - $10,000 (within 30 mins to 3 hours exposure). You get 1-3 opportunities per day for these kinds of rewards. They're obvious moves with no more than a 20 ema to give you a point of reference.

Good luck.
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why cant you add both ways?
 
The initial position is still alive. I've added another lot to this 'winner'. Gonna lose nothing again since using profit from a quick scalp as a pin cushion/buffer. See you next week!
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Quote from chrh1234:

Hmm weird, I wonder where my other posts went to. Is there some kind of delay because I am a junior member? Just checking coz I might have to retype everything again.
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if you review your typing attachment will be gone, post first then use edit button to fix your posting.
 
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