You ought to try a different coin preferably from another country.
What percentage of you trades do you get the direction right for ?
- Thread starter traderwald
- Start date
I think it still would be 50/50... for instance at this level of the (US) market, would you go long on any equity ? Many would say no but watch what the market does ...You ought to try a different coin preferably from another country.
Equity curve against a few indices is my personal favorite, including the blowup at the end (for curves that are obviously too smooth)
How do you manage to be correct 100% of the time? I am depressed. My win rate is way below 40% lately.
Need to read the next line LOL
Correct, isn't the issue, it's all about timing and mine SUCKS!!!
Hi,
To directly answer the question: about 55% over a long period and thousands of trades. However, it isn't an especially important performance metric and you can't view it in isolation. It has to be related to size of average win vs. average loss as a minimum.
A long term trend follower might have a very low win % but win size many multiples of loss size. A scalper, conversely, is likely to have a much higher win rate but with average win similar to or even smaller than average loss. Both can be profitable but with vastly different win %.
As a short term day trader, I base my strategies on the presumption that my long term success rate will be 50% - a random outcome should be reasonably achievable - and look to figuring out how to ensure a profit on that basis. Any achieved win rate over 50% is just icing on the cake.
As soon as you start requiring a win rate materially >50% to be profitable you are putting a lot of strain on your presumed ability to pick winning trades and I believe that is difficult to sustain over the long haul for most of us. There are easier ways to make money trading.
To directly answer the question: about 55% over a long period and thousands of trades. However, it isn't an especially important performance metric and you can't view it in isolation. It has to be related to size of average win vs. average loss as a minimum.
A long term trend follower might have a very low win % but win size many multiples of loss size. A scalper, conversely, is likely to have a much higher win rate but with average win similar to or even smaller than average loss. Both can be profitable but with vastly different win %.
As a short term day trader, I base my strategies on the presumption that my long term success rate will be 50% - a random outcome should be reasonably achievable - and look to figuring out how to ensure a profit on that basis. Any achieved win rate over 50% is just icing on the cake.
As soon as you start requiring a win rate materially >50% to be profitable you are putting a lot of strain on your presumed ability to pick winning trades and I believe that is difficult to sustain over the long haul for most of us. There are easier ways to make money trading.