What Next? A rainbow(not_black) swan for a long term vision

[Ivano]

The upcoming induced recession should rhyme somewhat with the volcker recession. Maybe the difference will be one of meter, say iambic pentameter versus iambic trimeter.

Good insight to take indeed, but need to face consumer that will not equal past demand, with circular economy, the capitalism system as we are used to trade is going to be really different, market expecations need to be tuned to the new era, and this can take a couple of years.

 

[Ivano]

In the next 20-30 years fiscal dominance will become a bigger and bigger issue.
"Fiscal dominance is an economic condition that occurs when a country has a large government debt and deficit such that monetary policy targets keeping the government from bankruptcy as opposed to economic targets such as inflation, growth and employment. "

we need to take into account that may be time of Universal Basic Income, and this may worsen bullish expectations of the next 10 years, cause Gen Z that take income is not going to spend, not to add this financial freedom thing between young people, they may crunch more and more the consumption of goods

 

[piezoe]

We have absolutely no solutions right now to anything involving the climate other than political games of moving carbon emissions to different boundaries so we can blame someone else and pretend we are doing something.

I remember all the ethanol investment that took places years back that was going to save us even though if you did even the slightest bit of research it was quite obvious that the idea of running the economy on corn was a stupid and clueless idea. Now our solution is EVs that are doing absolutely nothing other than shuffling around who is emitting the carbon. Our solution to the problem is not much different than me lowering my carbon footprint by having you drive me to work. Hey it is your car that is emitting the CO2, I am carbon neutral.

What comes next is more inflationary pressures as far out as you care to look. I mean there was really no mystery of what comes next from printing trillions of dollars and having tons of debt at -.5% . It is like we charged up the credit card and when we didn't get the bill in the mail the next day figured it must be a free lunch so we maxed the card out.

The bill actually came in the mail a month later and it wasn't free money after all, oops. Now the economy is massively fragile to energy shocks and we are going to cause all kinds of energy shocks going forward pretending we are not an economy that runs on fossil fuels.

In the next 20-30 years fiscal dominance will become a bigger and bigger issue.
"Fiscal dominance is an economic condition that occurs when a country has a large government debt and deficit such that monetary policy targets keeping the government from bankruptcy as opposed to economic targets such as inflation, growth and employment. "

I liked your analysis. It calls fourth the recognition that transition away from fossil fuels can not happen overnight -- realistically it will take a generation or more. We will be dependent on fossil fuels for quite some time, so we must avoid supply shocks and assure ample fossil fuel supplies during the transition period. There is a tendency to think well that's it for oil, but in fact we will always need some petroleum and demands will remain strong for the foreseeable future. Thus I view with trepidation the approach being taken to precipitously cut out Russia as a supplier to the Western Countries. This is going to punish the punisher as much as the culprit. Other sanctions make more sense. Though the price cap scheme sounded ridiculous to me, it may not be. I think it is being considered because the fault in the oil and gas sanctions already in place are being recognized. Despite an amazingly fast increase in LNG capacity at European ports, it still is not enough to replace Russian NG.

Your last two sentences seemed a bit off base to me; have you thought them through? For one, countries that never borrow using debt denominated in other than the currency they create can not go bankrupt. Of course they can do the near equivalent by devaluing their money to the point of worthlessness, so I may be splitting hairs here. Also, these countries technically have no real debt as they can pay with money they create, or through their power of taxation. Practically speaking there are, of course, limits.

The U.S. doesn't even borrow anymore. It prints to cover all it's deficit spending and then some while later gives the appearance of borrowing by issuing bonds. What this does is simply exchange bonds, a type of interest paying money, for the new money already printed and spent into the world economy. The net change in Treasury liability is zero if we ignore future interest. (In "printing," Treasury liability increases.)

This business of bond issuance by the U.S. Treasury is critical to the World's economy, as it converts bank reserves to savings. This has a significant affect on the money stock (M2) and the related money base. It's an essential operation so long as the U.S. hopes to retain its currency status as the reserve currency. I am greatly concerned over the potential for loss of this tremendous advantage the U.S. enjoys. We must not treat this privilege too casually! I worry when I see the dollar being weaponized. This can come back to haunt us. If we are going to do this, then we need to be very forthright in explaining our policy, and very consistent in application. We are playing with fire here.