What Nassim Taleb Did on Black Monday 1987
- Thread starter Error Correction Funder
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He taught mostly advanced mathematics. Here, I'll help you. Ed Thorp. Maybe the best trader that ever lived. Google him.
Just read up on him, and he seems to be a pretty successful and smart guy. From wikepedia:
His first non-technical book, Fooled by Randomness, about the underestimation of the role of randomness in life, published in 2001, was selected by Fortune as one of the smartest 75 books known.[46]
His second non-technical book, The Black Swan, about unpredictable events, was published in 2007, selling close to 3 million copies (as of February 2011). It spent 36 weeks on the New York Times Bestseller list,[47] 17 as hardcover and 19 weeks as paperback,[18][48] and was translated into 31 languages.[18] The book has been credited with predicting the banking and economic crisis of 2008.
Essentially calling the 2008 crash puts him ahead of like 99% of ETers I would guess. But elsewhere it did say his overall performance has not been all that great - long periods of relatively dry performance (bull markets) punctuatte by periods of greatness (crashes). I guess that just goes to show that you can't invest/trade as if tomorrow is going to be a black swan event - else over time the bull markets will always prevail in the end and you will be left behind.
His first non-technical book, Fooled by Randomness, about the underestimation of the role of randomness in life, published in 2001, was selected by Fortune as one of the smartest 75 books known.[46]
His second non-technical book, The Black Swan, about unpredictable events, was published in 2007, selling close to 3 million copies (as of February 2011). It spent 36 weeks on the New York Times Bestseller list,[47] 17 as hardcover and 19 weeks as paperback,[18][48] and was translated into 31 languages.[18] The book has been credited with predicting the banking and economic crisis of 2008.
Essentially calling the 2008 crash puts him ahead of like 99% of ETers I would guess. But elsewhere it did say his overall performance has not been all that great - long periods of relatively dry performance (bull markets) punctuatte by periods of greatness (crashes). I guess that just goes to show that you can't invest/trade as if tomorrow is going to be a black swan event - else over time the bull markets will always prevail in the end and you will be left behind.
So are Kid Rock and 50 Cents, but that doesn't make them a good trader.
(in fact, both are better investors than Taleb)
The point is, his success came from writing books, not from managing/trading money.
Neither followed NT strategy too closely. Actually a point of debate how involved with Universal he even was.
That video is all well and good, but what is the magical 1% of portfolio tail hedge? I just find it a little hard to believe that you can implement this magical tail hedge and avoid all the big crashes yet catch all the big upside. I want to believe, but just seems impossible.
By the way, how does the video relate to Taleb, Universa, and/or Mark Spitznagel? Don't know who is in that video.
Thanks!
Is this the new standard? Not bankrupt yet = success???