And I suppose you never been on wrong side of trade when some news comes out? If not tells me you not traded many years as it happens to all.
Problems with fundamentals is companies statements never tell what the company is really doing, so I think it is bunch of estimates and dreams they sell the public. Those who can't read charts well enough are is like a feather in wind. Am certainly not saying every move shows up in charts, but fundamentals lag is hugely behind when to get out or go short.
Depends on your skill level, if you newbie-you are bait, if you been trading 40 years-should seldom have many losses.
If I had five hours learning to fly 747 and AA cutting back on Captains who have 20,000 hours of flying, want to bet your life on which one going to fly you?
I have tried three times finding the bottom, it is how I trade long term commodities, I have scored one of them reaching first target on half position, one became breakeven along with hedge and third hedges kicked in to save me from losses. I anticipate Crude Oil will go lower, between 20-30 maybe, I will continue to look for buys once price gets lower and use 2 minute charts and volume to tell me when to buy again with hedges. As far as Supply/Demand whether crude, soybeans, indexes, coffee-numbers really don't matter as much as they did in 1980s.