What more bad news could come out?
- Thread starter Cutten
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I think the more serious threat to the market is the Pakistani model of banning short selling.
I do not think the market can go up until it is a free and fair market and that will only occur when there are two sides to a trade.
It was easy to ban short sellling, you do it in the middle of night and in a sneak attack.
Somehow I think those who are long will expect a notice, and if they get notice then you will a sell off before they take off the ban.
I think there has to be some significant downside when reinstituting short selling comes about.
Banning short selling was ugly but quick, putting it back in place is an entirely different matter.
I think the consumer sector getting crushed is probably the last shoe to drop. Visa, Mastercard, any retailer, luxury goods etc. So far they are chugging along nicely, as if there is not going to be a nasty recession. A bit reminiscent of the financial sector in earlier this year, commodities in June, or real estate stocks a year ago.
Still, that means that other sectors that have already been hit could be reasonable plays here. There might be a nice long/short play, going long the stuff that's already down big, and short the stuff that's been hanging in there until now.
Still, that means that other sectors that have already been hit could be reasonable plays here. There might be a nice long/short play, going long the stuff that's already down big, and short the stuff that's been hanging in there until now.
For me the word "torsion" comes to mind.
Opposing forces tug and pull and twist in opposite directions and rotation. The failures coming up will be as consequences of sharp pokes into the economic fabric and not so much the long list of dominos that are being knocked over.
Bad stuff is accelerating and not priced in for the most part.
The MBS's going illiquid and the huge number of naked CDS's just serve to bring to a close the IB's and HF's ill chosen strategies.
Unfortunately, the work around for the US economy will be through externalities. Capital, like water, flows around obstacles.
Economics deals with people and econometrics demonstates this torsion. As in farming or baking bread, you only get to do it if you do it correctly.
The dominos of the US and some of the other developed nations are falling and other countries are setting their futures in place quite successfully and independently.
The Netherlands did wind; Germany did solar; France did nuclear; norway did hydro; and Iceland did geothermal. Patents >>> products >>>> sales >>>> wealth.
Energy>>>auto industry and air transportation>>>> jobs>>>>> food, clothing and shelter >>>>> health >>>>> retirement >>etc.
Pokes and jabs come from outside: lack of abundant supply, no tooling, business and families cut travel to economize, commercial paper dries up, food comes from outsoursing to ther nations which do not have public health requirements, coton plastics fibers are used in external cultures and not supplied when dollar is fading, securitization, an economic design failure is punctured further by unregulated markets (MBS and CDS markets) and housing industry freezing down in four manners (S/D, no commercial paper, values, fraudulant financing), chioce of illness policy instead of health policy, depressed livelihood by dollar shrinking for 1/3 of career span, outliving planning and no recourse, government failure.
So the US finances both sides of the wars; families have plans disrupted. So far we have gone from wealthiest nation to greatest debtor nation.
The number crunchers left government and idealists and second stringers are in place until 20 JAN 09.
It all comes down to twisting what is pulling at us back in another direction to undo the huge path we have taken on.
The string of current failures in process achieve two great ingredients for all of us that are independent of these failures. We get to do as we wish to entrain price movement and volatility. And that is OT for this thread.
Bad news is veterans and their care.
Bad news is infrastructure failures coming down the pipe.
Bad news is the medical and hospital systems breaking down and private insurance getting overloaded and cancelling policies.
Bad news is pension's and foundation's cpaitalization evaporating. 600 billion of assets are tied up in London for example.
Bad news is soveriegn capital coming into the US to settle in all those unregulated places complacency has build for the US while asleep at the switch.
It is a great idea to find the bad news and fix it. A 2 1/2 pager from the second string won't fix anything but others will.
It ws fun watching a Congressman ask Bernake what bailed out people would do to improve their stock value when they got reverse auction federal money. To the astoundment of the enquirer who heard the answer and those watching, we got the unbelievable answer: "They will make credit available so the stock value increases."
Anyone know what a Board of Directors does to increase stock value by using liquid assets????? LOL....... The Congressman knew and Paulson took a drink of water as Bernake answered with the economics Cliff Notes he remembered.
Opposing forces tug and pull and twist in opposite directions and rotation. The failures coming up will be as consequences of sharp pokes into the economic fabric and not so much the long list of dominos that are being knocked over.
Bad stuff is accelerating and not priced in for the most part.
The MBS's going illiquid and the huge number of naked CDS's just serve to bring to a close the IB's and HF's ill chosen strategies.
Unfortunately, the work around for the US economy will be through externalities. Capital, like water, flows around obstacles.
Economics deals with people and econometrics demonstates this torsion. As in farming or baking bread, you only get to do it if you do it correctly.
The dominos of the US and some of the other developed nations are falling and other countries are setting their futures in place quite successfully and independently.
The Netherlands did wind; Germany did solar; France did nuclear; norway did hydro; and Iceland did geothermal. Patents >>> products >>>> sales >>>> wealth.
Energy>>>auto industry and air transportation>>>> jobs>>>>> food, clothing and shelter >>>>> health >>>>> retirement >>etc.
Pokes and jabs come from outside: lack of abundant supply, no tooling, business and families cut travel to economize, commercial paper dries up, food comes from outsoursing to ther nations which do not have public health requirements, coton plastics fibers are used in external cultures and not supplied when dollar is fading, securitization, an economic design failure is punctured further by unregulated markets (MBS and CDS markets) and housing industry freezing down in four manners (S/D, no commercial paper, values, fraudulant financing), chioce of illness policy instead of health policy, depressed livelihood by dollar shrinking for 1/3 of career span, outliving planning and no recourse, government failure.
So the US finances both sides of the wars; families have plans disrupted. So far we have gone from wealthiest nation to greatest debtor nation.
The number crunchers left government and idealists and second stringers are in place until 20 JAN 09.
It all comes down to twisting what is pulling at us back in another direction to undo the huge path we have taken on.
The string of current failures in process achieve two great ingredients for all of us that are independent of these failures. We get to do as we wish to entrain price movement and volatility. And that is OT for this thread.
Bad news is veterans and their care.
Bad news is infrastructure failures coming down the pipe.
Bad news is the medical and hospital systems breaking down and private insurance getting overloaded and cancelling policies.
Bad news is pension's and foundation's cpaitalization evaporating. 600 billion of assets are tied up in London for example.
Bad news is soveriegn capital coming into the US to settle in all those unregulated places complacency has build for the US while asleep at the switch.
It is a great idea to find the bad news and fix it. A 2 1/2 pager from the second string won't fix anything but others will.
It ws fun watching a Congressman ask Bernake what bailed out people would do to improve their stock value when they got reverse auction federal money. To the astoundment of the enquirer who heard the answer and those watching, we got the unbelievable answer: "They will make credit available so the stock value increases."
Anyone know what a Board of Directors does to increase stock value by using liquid assets????? LOL....... The Congressman knew and Paulson took a drink of water as Bernake answered with the economics Cliff Notes he remembered.
Interesting that hardly anyone cares about the food outsourcing. In NZ, Fonterra Co. knew about the Chinese tainted baby formula 6 weeks before it was announced. And there is speculation that it's in their other milk based products.
Their excuse - well there is a chain of command, 1st you notify the the distributor, then he notifies . . . What a bunch of BS - let people get poisoned instead of putting out a public notice and pulling stock. Actually they are trying to protect a trading partner - they don't people to stop buying Chinese food products. Money over public health. Just another in a long line of food disasters. The last memorable one just killed peoples pets, now its babies.
I remember when the US started importing ag products from Mexico that were sprayed or treated with pesticides that were illegal in the US.
Most people put their head in the sand until some kind of forced reality - it has to hit or hurt them personally.
Buffet is not all that great with his timing.
And the VIX could go a helluva lot higher. Try going back to 1987 and see where it spiked to.
That having been said, there are stocks like Lockheed Martin (LMT) and L-3 Communications (LLL), and other names in the DEFENSE SECTOR that continue to ride the wave of defense spending, and have very little exposure to the current banking issues.
Now that's both hilarious and serious at the same time, but not nearly so worrisome as either a senile President McCain or a poorly educated (for the job), and inexperienced "Christian" fundamentalist President Palin. Yikes!Interesting analysis.
That Schiff character says half US Banks are insolvent.
Fortis called for 6000 US Lenders to go under.
Thats definitely not priced in.
Neither is 401K Pensioneers puking their longs and funds as the DJIA goes under 9K.
There's still a boat load of suckers and Boomers long.
Then, yea, if we really crash to 7-8K, then time to value invest.
Until then, its bottoms up!