What markets are manipulated and what will cause it to stop?

austinp · Mar 30, 2010

Quote from Martinghoul:

I have stated my opinion many times, so no need for me to reiterate ('cause I am sure we're gonna end up talking about Britney Spears again)...

Conspiracy and mkt manipulation theories, in my view, are generally invented, advocated and disseminated by two kinds of people:
1) People who lost money in the mkt or forecast mkt movements wrongly. These people try to attribute their losses to mysterious all-powerful agents (of the govt, mafia, the Vatican, etc), rather than their own bad luck or intellectual shortcomings.
2) Storytellers (e.g. journalists, bloggers) whose very livelihoods depend on creation of bold headlines that conspiracy theories can provide.

your US Federal govt by its own public admission holds millions shares of C now worth billions $$, hundreds millions $$ various notes and bonds debt, and has propped up numerous public companies with direct graft straight from fed coffers.

now exactly what part of that isn't direct govt manipulation?

MKTrader · Mar 30, 2010

Quote from Martinghoul:

I have stated my opinion many times, so no need for me to reiterate ('cause I am sure we're gonna end up talking about Britney Spears again)...

Conspiracy and mkt manipulation theories, in my view, are generally invented, advocated and disseminated by two kinds of people:
1) People who lost money in the mkt or forecast mkt movements wrongly. These people try to attribute their losses to mysterious all-powerful agents (of the govt, mafia, the Vatican, etc), rather than their own bad luck or intellectual shortcomings.
2) Storytellers (e.g. journalists, bloggers) whose very livelihoods depend on creation of bold headlines that conspiracy theories can provide.

I agree--especially when permabears blame the PPT for every rally.

However, the fact that many use manipulation as an excuse for losses doesn't disprove its existence. Maybe it occurs, but not necessarily how or where we think it's going on...

austinp · Mar 30, 2010

Quote from SomeYoungGuy:

Basically, don't fight the gov't. A long-term, broad market, short position right now is retarded. Be long until we see evidence that they are letting it come down for a soft landing.

and how did those short-term long positions work out today? how did any positions work out yesterday in that 5.75 pt S&P range thru 6.75 grueling hours of govt propped chop?

basically, the fed has screwed all markets from normal auction theory price discovery. there is no daily auction because one bidder with bottomless pockets threatens to show up at any moment and close the bidding. everyone else is shellshocked and bullied to the sidelines

for now

Martinghoul · Mar 30, 2010

Quote from austinp:

your US Federal govt by its own public admission holds millions shares of C now worth billions $$, hundreds millions $$ various notes and bonds debt, and has propped up numerous public companies with direct graft straight from fed coffers.

now exactly what part of that isn't direct govt manipulation?

I agree... See my response to JamesVU. I suppose we're gonna have to reach a consensus on the definition of "market manipulation".

austinp · Mar 30, 2010

Quote from Martinghoul:

I agree... See my response to JamesVU. I suppose we're gonna have to reach a consensus on the definition of "market manipulation".

I would personally define "manipulation" as any government backed attempts to influence free-market direction up or down.

If any market is pressed either direction by government force(s), that pretty much bastardizes the "free" part imo

spinn · Mar 30, 2010

Quote from Martinghoul:

Simple, more people/machines pressing their magical green buttons... Moreover, there's bad news and good news and there's even some news that may appear good to one group of people and bad to another, if you can imagine such a thing...

OK, so where does the money come from that allows these machines to purchase shares/contracts?

Do you really believe the market should be at these levels with 10% unemployment and companies like AT&t TAKING BILLION DOLLAR HITS DUE TO HEALTHCARE???

JamesVU2000 · Mar 30, 2010

Quote from austinp:

I would personally define "manipulation" as any government backed attempts to influence free-market direction up or down.

If any market is pressed either direction by government force(s), that pretty much bastardizes the "free" part imo

exactly

Martinghoul · Mar 30, 2010

Quote from austinp:

I would personally define "manipulation" as any government backed attempts to influence free-market direction up or down.

If any market is pressed either direction by government force(s), that pretty much bastardizes the "free" part imo

Well, my friend, as I mentioned in my previous post, you'll get no disagreement from me there.

It's beyond obvious that the mkt is "manipulated". In fact, why go too far? All mkt regulations, including insider trading laws, according to your definition, constitute manipulation.

austinp · Mar 30, 2010

fwiw, I'm not spouting sour grapes. I made money today, and I make money more days than not. But it's one helluva slugfest with the tapes right now, overall consistently deadest intraday tapes anyone has ever seen since pre-1999.

stock markets go straight up overnight or final few minutes of a no-volume session. any time there is any volume surge, it is always on a selloff

commodity markets sensitive to USD all spurt and jerk with no trend, just pure carry trade offsets and little else.

tapes across all assets are as abnormal and unstructured on a daily basis as I have ever seen. edges still exist as they always have but they are fewer, fleeting and smaller than otherwise unfettered market action.

the game has always been rigged, will always be rigged by someone(s) in control. Just never before so blatantly and openly stepped on by our U.S. government: democracy, republic... whatever the hell it is constitutionally supposed to be in theory.

MKTrader · Mar 30, 2010

Quote from austinp:

Just never before so blatantly and openly stepped on by our U.S. government: democracy, republic... whatever the hell it is constitutionally supposed to be in theory.

U.S.?

Constitution?

You're in Barackistan now, buddy. You'll take your 1.25 S&P points and be happy...or else!