Quote from CFerret:
Yes I remember we talked and you even let me enter your room and see you trade. It was very informative and I really appreciate your efforts in helping me.
But one problem still remains: I don't understand the mechanics of interacting forces which cause these changes in DOM and more importantly cause market to move.
You're right when saying that "who cares what is it if it works", but as a psychologist and a man from scientific family I tend to analize and try to understand well every process I see.
Janis
Janis, I don't know if I have the answer, but I have a theory on the answer. It has to do with big money, being in a position they want to move into or out of.
If you trade the ES, and trade 1, 3, 6 contracts at a time, I'd imagine that 90% of the time you can get out with no more than a quarter point slippage. This allows the option to pick and choose when and where you get in and out, at any given price.
However, if you trade 1,000 contracts at a time, you do NOT have this luxury, because you know your buy or sell order will move the market, and possible to a point that would eliminate your profit.
So, to avoid plunging or bouncing the market several points, incurring massive slippage, and losing your shirt...
You have to WAIT until someone BIG is sitting on the bid, or ask, "signaling" that that they are willing to sell 1000, or buy 1000 contracts at a particular price. Then, you would have to start selling/buying at the price they were willing to take/give.
Here's an analogy. You are a farmer, selling grapes at an open air market. But you don't have a few grapes to sell, you have 5 truckloads of grapes. For you to sell them and still make money, you can't sell these grapes to just anyone who walks buy. You won't ever sell them fast enough to make a profit.
you will have to wait for a major supermarket to stop in and make you an offer.
Then, you either take the offer, or you wait a while longer. In the meantime, your grapes could spoil.
So, when a big bid or offer comes in, if it is reasonable, you TAKE IT.
In other words, when a big 500 contract bid shows up 3 ticks below the current price on an ACV, it is a 500 contract SELLER than is pushing the price down to meet that offer. Why? because they need to MOVE their inventory fast. Market exposure = risk.
To them, 3 ticks below current price is a hell of a lot better than rotten grapes.
Anyway, I hope this gives an idea...I would welcome comments, opinions, etc as to whether this concept is indeed true, or if it just sounds that way in my head
Greg
P.S. VSTscalper knows his game well, so if he says something works, it does...Keep kicking it and taking names Bill, I'll drop you a line in the next day or so.