This is probably the best chart I have seen in a long time. What do birds do? They tweet? And what moves the market? Trump tweets. The bird's flying away? Those are the smart ones that know when it is time to get the heck out.
What Kind Of Method Is This?
- Thread starter easymon1
- Start date
I assume you came to this conclusion after backtesting this indicator with at least 20 years of historical data on 20 different markets, right?
Yes. I came to the conclusion that it will not tell me what the market will do TOMORROW, after 10s of thousands of hours looking at every indicator I have in my arsenal, back-testing and forward testing the shit out of my life, and have come to the conclusion that the only true edge is time.
And it didn't take a lot of "backtesting" to come to that conclusion. All it took was a look at a chart of an index over the last 60 years. So much wasted time. So much sweat equity, for nothing.
Right.
Trading is not about predicting the future.
Trading is like counting the cards in a BlackJack game, that strategy will NEVER tell you what the value of the next card is but it will allow you to profit in the long run, because the odds are now in your favor.
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I will never ever equate trading like counting cards in blackjack. It's not the same.
There are no black swans in blackjack, and time has no edge there. Conversely, there are black swans in trading, but time has an edge there.
But trading is indeed very close to BJ (Different in some things yes, but very close). Every new candle is like a new dealt card, more information revealed to you and everyone else (And potentially slightly change in probabilities).
The rules in trading are more flexible than in BJ, for example, in trading the markets, you are free to adjust your position size anytime or even fold (Unlike BJ).
Black swans exist in BJ to some extent, think when you are counting cards in BJ and the count is extremely in your favor and you bet your maximum allowed and the dealer gets a BJ, that can be considered a black swan.
Think of other types of black swans in BJ, like the dealer getting 21s and BJs like 5 times in a row (Though not really ideal black swans, but still highly improbable events).
What do you exactly mean by time is the edge?
There are no black swans to someone who can read the markets. I say that respectfully (not looking to pick a fight with Overnight).