What just caused that excitement on ES

[mmrreedd]

Quote from fearless9:

My apologies Cocaine, shouldnt have done it.
I was trying to demonstrate the "assumption trap" to a Trader who emailed me with a problem and he just could not accept that his actions were balancing on an assumption.

regards
f9

Hi f9

A specialty of mine is the dumb question, here comes one now...

The NFP result was a lot lower than expected, is the 'assumption trap' that the ES sold off on the worse than expected result?

I ask because the overnight market had taken the ES higher on good buying pressure (volume at ask vs volume at bid), and then in the 20 minutes prior to the release there was continued buying pressure on the ES, but no price move higher to accompany it - the danger/risk was therefore a move down on any result?

Assumption = lower than expected NFP caused sell-off.
Reality = sell-off was the danger/risk side anyway?

Am I on the right track here?

Thanks f9

Appreciate the 'food for thought' posts.

mred

 

[gwac]

es went up on Microsoft. If payrolls would have been good, we would have gone above 1400. The mkt dipped on the bad number. The mkt then decided that the Microsoft news was more important than the news of a dissappearing economy.

The market will focus on whatever it wants to justify the direction.
Bulls are in control, give it a few days and a few more points to up side and the dissapearing economy will be back in focus.

Quote from mmrreedd:

Hi f9

A specialty of mine is the dumb question, here comes one now...

The NFP result was a lot lower than expected, is the 'assumption trap' that the ES sold off on the worse than expected result?

I ask because the overnight market had taken the ES higher on good buying pressure (volume at ask vs volume at bid), and then in the 20 minutes prior to the release there was continued buying pressure on the ES, but no price move higher to accompany it - the danger/risk was therefore a move down on any result?

Assumption = lower than expected NFP caused sell-off.
Reality = sell-off was the danger/risk side anyway?

Am I on the right track here?

Thanks f9

Appreciate the 'food for thought' posts.

mred

 

[Cyclikill]

Quote from Cutten:

Is this a wind-up?

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html

Check this before every trading day, and avoiding trading the moments before economic releases if you don't have a good news service.

Don't encourage Fearless and Cocaine, you could confound them by putting a penny in a round room and telling them it's in the corner