What is your win rate?
- Thread starter dv4632
- Start date
at the end of May, I had 75 winning days and 25 losing..........avg being about even....
> 50%
But I average down and hold through sometimes long periods of drawdown when other people would close their positions, so I pretty much trade differently from everyone else here.
For the people who predict direction, they likely either have 50/50 with bigger winners than losers, or less than 50% with MUCH bigger winners than losers.
Or maybe they have greater than 50% with much bigger winners than losers :eek: That would be awesome.
But I average down and hold through sometimes long periods of drawdown when other people would close their positions, so I pretty much trade differently from everyone else here.
For the people who predict direction, they likely either have 50/50 with bigger winners than losers, or less than 50% with MUCH bigger winners than losers.
Or maybe they have greater than 50% with much bigger winners than losers :eek: That would be awesome.
43%
2:1 Reward:Risk
2:1 Reward:Risk
+1
that makes sense
Quality of win rate is important. If you hit on 9 out of 10 ugly women in a bar and your friend scores with a model out of 100 he hit, his rate is better although 1/100 as compared to your 9/10.
Quality is basically the size of the profit factor but not only.
Quality is basically the size of the profit factor but not only.
Win rate or % return?
To the contrary, IMO, the most valid measurement for the independent sole player is what % are you taking from the maximum a market daily offers? Cutting to the chase, that assumes daytrading. For example CL offered a maximum of 1227 points on Monday (June 13 2011), open to close. The days price gyrations produced 15 swings (minimum 40 points) at a mean average of 81 points per swing.
No discussion I believe has ever taken place at ET on what % or ratio a trader is taking from the market. This I'm afraid does tell you your level of success. It shows you how much you leave on the table each day. Now I suspect that this is because amateur players are either not able to calculate what is offered each day by the market they play or don't want to know.
However any discussion on this does not need any player to reveal what % he or she is taking per day. It requires him or her to think about what they are leaving behind each day (almost all of what is offered?) and then to think about what % of the whole they should be aiming to take.
Lets go one small step further. Taking Monday as an example, what do CL players take, net (excluding commission) per day? Ten points (less than 1%), 50 points (4%), 100 points (8%) or 200 points (16%)?
To the contrary, IMO, the most valid measurement for the independent sole player is what % are you taking from the maximum a market daily offers? Cutting to the chase, that assumes daytrading. For example CL offered a maximum of 1227 points on Monday (June 13 2011), open to close. The days price gyrations produced 15 swings (minimum 40 points) at a mean average of 81 points per swing.
No discussion I believe has ever taken place at ET on what % or ratio a trader is taking from the market. This I'm afraid does tell you your level of success. It shows you how much you leave on the table each day. Now I suspect that this is because amateur players are either not able to calculate what is offered each day by the market they play or don't want to know.
However any discussion on this does not need any player to reveal what % he or she is taking per day. It requires him or her to think about what they are leaving behind each day (almost all of what is offered?) and then to think about what % of the whole they should be aiming to take.
Lets go one small step further. Taking Monday as an example, what do CL players take, net (excluding commission) per day? Ten points (less than 1%), 50 points (4%), 100 points (8%) or 200 points (16%)?