What is your short term market expectation?

Banjo said:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s...lion-of-their-own-shares-this-year-2018-03-02
https://www.financialsense.com/rich...mpanies-track-800-billion-buyback-record-2018
Even though the lift will be driven by a narrow participation of names it will act as a magnet attracting more participation. The risk of missing out is too great.
What do you think transpires during the next few months?
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If we're in the crash, over the next few weeks, the S&P should drop 30%+ from the peak on Jan 26.

If we're not, it's more waiting until we drop 30%+ from the next relative peak.

So far, so good, but the past 12 months have been very improbable, in terms of the cause of the crash.

Too soon to tell how it will play out after the crash bottoms.
 
Banjo said:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s...lion-of-their-own-shares-this-year-2018-03-02
https://www.financialsense.com/rich...mpanies-track-800-billion-buyback-record-2018
Even though the lift will be driven by a narrow participation of names it will act as a magnet attracting more participation. The risk of missing out is too great.
What do you think transpires during the next few months?
More...

I wish there was a way for a relative amateur like me to make short-term trades and actually profit. But I think I'd get beat up pretty bad by the pros if I tried it.
 
DaveP648 said:
I wish there was a way for a relative amateur like me to make short-term trades and actually profit. But I think I'd get beat up pretty bad by the pros if I tried it.
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I feel the pain Dave. Although the big players don't set out to get our money in the retail trading arena, if we get in the path of these great big money machines - so we thing we're walking behind them when actually we're walking in front of them - they just roll over us.

Day-trading is incredibly hard and unlikely to be successful for a new trader. Have you thought about going into some longer-term trades? I was saying to someone lately that whereas they thought their stops kept getting hunted, all I have to do is join another lovely smooth long trend in the right market, and I'm going to make money - and there's nothing a broker or anyone else can do to stop it.
 
tomorton said:
I feel the pain Dave. Although the big players don't set out to get our money in the retail trading arena, if we get in the path of these great big money machines - so we thing we're walking behind them when actually we're walking in front of them - they just roll over us.

Day-trading is incredibly hard and unlikely to be successful for a new trader. Have you thought about going into some longer-term trades? I was saying to someone lately that whereas they thought their stops kept getting hunted, all I have to do is join another lovely smooth long trend in the right market, and I'm going to make money - and there's nothing a broker or anyone else can do to stop it.
More...

Thanks yeah I'm holding long-term assets, and I'm thinking of trying cryptos because everyone is as clueless as me. At least it's fair
 
Cryptos are a pure gamble. By a week today they could have replaced credit cards or they could be illegal to hold. The charts look like the Himalayas next to the Grand Canyon. Unless you can make a once in a lifetime fortune it isn't worth a life-changing risk.
 
DaveP648 said:
Thanks yeah I'm holding long-term assets, and I'm thinking of trying cryptos because everyone is as clueless as me. At least it's fair
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If you're holding US equities, what 's your plan for them if - heavens forbid - the S&P drops 5% a week for the next 2 months?
 
tomorton said:
I feel the pain Dave. Although the big players don't set out to get our money in the retail trading arena, if we get in the path of these great big money machines - so we thing we're walking behind them when actually we're walking in front of them - they just roll over us.

Day-trading is incredibly hard and unlikely to be successful for a new trader. Have you thought about going into some longer-term trades? I was saying to someone lately that whereas they thought their stops kept getting hunted, all I have to do is join another lovely smooth long trend in the right market, and I'm going to make money - and there's nothing a broker or anyone else can do to stop it.
More...

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As of this past weekend, I was projecting around late April for the first major bottom.

However, if today continues to worsen, and the rest of the week follows suit, this could be a death week that would put this crash more in line with 1987 and 1929.

As of this moment, it looks like a split difference of time between the Kennedy Slide and 1929 & 1987.
 
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