What is your panty dropping bet to score HUGE when inflation comes?

Vanzandt- I like your post, but I find your conclusion spurious. Your premise of inflation is in the numbers - just look at them- yup. But then you look for companies to short!?! Sure, you may be right on them, but that’s swimming a bit upstream, no? I get we all trade and view the world differently, but why wouldn’t you just go for the companies with hurricane force gusts at its back? Prices for everything everywhere are going up. See all stock indexes. Ford may be so ripe for the plucking, but can’t they also just raise prices in an inflationary world?
Absolutely, I guess I didn't make my point very well and that's this: if the PPI and CPI spook the Fed and their tone ebbs hawkish, or even worse, a surprise .25 bump, this will have a significant effect on market psychology as it pertains to companies sporting a high debt load.

I mean I agree with you from a trading standpoint, ride the wave, but the market looks forward, and the writing on the wall is getting clearer and clearer. The Fed is going to have to tighten up soon.
But maybe not, like I said, I'm far from being an economist. There's folks here about a 1000 levels above me that's for sure. So who knows. I still like Ford as a short though. But EV's are all the buzz and F's CEO made it clear they aren't playing second fiddle to anyone so... I could be wrong. It's just all that debt. Don't get me wrong, I think they're a good company, my favorite of the big three, especially product-wise for quality, but they are a cyclical with substantial legacy costs.

On a lighter note, I laughed out loud at your comment about Subaru. Quite astute, I've shared that sentiment for quite awhile now. They do a good job in the marketing department that's for sure. They have their niche, and you can see it everyday when you look at who's driving what. I've always enjoyed that, correlating personalities to vehicle brands. And colors.
Subaru is the "woke" brand. I bet they kick-ass in parts of Colorado, CA, and the Northwest.
 
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I am convinced inflation is coming. And HARD. Like late 70s/early 80s type stuff, probably worse. If you believed same, and wanted to make as much possible money as you can on it, where would you put your money? I'm not talking short straddles here, these types of one-way bets are probably the only thing short straddles won't work for.

Gold seems an obvious choice, but I think some kind soul posted a chart the other day that was supposed to show that gold was NOT a good protection against inflation?

Other metals? Which ones?

Short bonds? But is it even guaranteed bond yields would necessarily go up if there was inflation - what if the Fed decided nevertheless to keep rates low to help flagging growth in the inflationary environment?

Real estate? Holding actual land versus MLPs (hate the K-1s) or other indirect real estate? Types?

Commodities? ETFs? Futures?

All open to ideas guys, lets ride this coming inflation into the night, scoring millions in the process!@!!! WE ARE ALL IN THIS TOGETHER!!!!!

Take on maximum debt at low interest to buy -- whatever. Fractionalized art, farmland shares, low P/E commodity producers (leaps DITM), a 10% share of crypto (ETH/BTC/ADA), Real estate, silver.
 
Take on maximum debt at low interest to buy -- whatever. Fractionalized art, farmland shares, low P/E commodity producers (leaps DITM), a 10% share of crypto (ETH/BTC/ADA), Real estate, silver.
Good time for me to take a mortgage so.....
 
I am convinced inflation is coming. And HARD. Like late 70s/early 80s type stuff, probably worse. If you believed same, and wanted to make as much possible money as you can on it, where would you put your money? I'm not talking short straddles here, these types of one-way bets are probably the only thing short straddles won't work for.

Gold seems an obvious choice, but I think some kind soul posted a chart the other day that was supposed to show that gold was NOT a good protection against inflation?

Other metals? Which ones?

Short bonds? But is it even guaranteed bond yields would necessarily go up if there was inflation - what if the Fed decided nevertheless to keep rates low to help flagging growth in the inflationary environment?

Real estate? Holding actual land versus MLPs (hate the K-1s) or other indirect real estate? Types?

Commodities? ETFs? Futures?

All open to ideas guys, lets ride this coming inflation into the night, scoring millions in the process!@!!! WE ARE ALL IN THIS TOGETHER!!!!!

You're a little late on this theme there have numerous great ways to play it since March. In particular, the Canadian energy sector was so beat up in March the stock prices were ridiculous. Most have had huge rallies in two distinct phases ( the recovery trade starting in late March, then the rally since Oil bottomed at $37 a few months ago ).

You have to play sectors that are unloved for irrational reasons. Gold miners were tremendous from March-August, have been extremely poor performers since. Current valuations are not rational at current Gold prices ( earnings have been good for most of them so far ). That's the best lower risk play if you want huge returns, if you can be patient, and no guarantees but the downside is limited. I will bail on this temporarily if there is no positive momentum this week, but will be ready to pounce if that changes at any point this year.

In terms of short term, Copper is at 7 year highs and threatened to break out Friday much higher. Copper miners are a great play on the Asian recovery. Emerging markets have badly lagged US markets as well. My guess is Silver will follow Copper's lead very soon, but I say that with no certainty at all. IT is anyone's guess, are we early 1999 with another huge leg up coming or are we basically done. My guess is the former but I have no money on that at this time ( huge downside risk in a correction ).
 
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Talked to a buddy of mine the other day, pretty decent sized developer of residential and some light commercial; he told me prices are off the charts across the board. Land, material, labor, permitting, fuel. Everything. Smart cat this one, he's a good friend and I respect how valuable his time is so I never pick his brain as much as I'd like to, but he knows what's going on. IMO, probably better than the 'experts' at the St. Louis Fed.

You don't need a weather-man to know which way the wind is blowing.

.


Absolutely, I guess I didn't make my point very well and that's this: if the PPI and CPI spook the Fed and their tone ebbs hawkish, or even worse, a surprise .25 bump, this will have a significant effect on market psychology as it pertains to companies sporting a high debt load.

I mean I agree with you from a trading standpoint, ride the wave, but the market looks forward, and the writing on the wall is getting clearer and clearer. The Fed is going to have to tighten up soon.

~February of 2021.
 
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I am convinced inflation is coming. And HARD. Like late 70s/early 80s type stuff, probably worse. If you believed same, and wanted to make as much possible money as you can on it, where would you put your money? I'm not talking short straddles here, these types of one-way bets are probably the only thing short straddles won't work for.

Gold seems an obvious choice, but I think some kind soul posted a chart the other day that was supposed to show that gold was NOT a good protection against inflation?

Other metals? Which ones?

Short bonds? But is it even guaranteed bond yields would necessarily go up if there was inflation - what if the Fed decided nevertheless to keep rates low to help flagging growth in the inflationary environment?

Real estate? Holding actual land versus MLPs (hate the K-1s) or other indirect real estate? Types?

Commodities? ETFs? Futures?

All open to ideas guys, lets ride this coming inflation into the night, scoring millions in the process!@!!! WE ARE ALL IN THIS TOGETHER!!!!!



Saltynuts (your name) will not cause her to drop her panties. Try this instead .... floral organic honey with a tinge of ginger, cinnamon, nutmeg & Cardamom.
 
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