What is your panty dropping bet to score HUGE when inflation comes?

[Saltynuts]

I am convinced inflation is coming. And HARD. Like late 70s/early 80s type stuff, probably worse. If you believed same, and wanted to make as much possible money as you can on it, where would you put your money? I'm not talking short straddles here, these types of one-way bets are probably the only thing short straddles won't work for.

Gold seems an obvious choice, but I think some kind soul posted a chart the other day that was supposed to show that gold was NOT a good protection against inflation?

Other metals? Which ones?

Short bonds? But is it even guaranteed bond yields would necessarily go up if there was inflation - what if the Fed decided nevertheless to keep rates low to help flagging growth in the inflationary environment?

Real estate? Holding actual land versus MLPs (hate the K-1s) or other indirect real estate? Types?

Commodities? ETFs? Futures?

All open to ideas guys, lets ride this coming inflation into the night, scoring millions in the process!@!!! WE ARE ALL IN THIS TOGETHER!!!!!

 

[ph1l]

https://etfdb.com/screener/#page=1&asset_class=bond&bond_types=TIPS

 

[Saltynuts]

Thank you ph1l! So are those generally like inflation protected bond funds? If so, do they really work to protect against inflation? If so, do they just PROTECT you against inflation, or do they allow you to make a bunch of $$$ off it? I'd like protection, but I want FAT PROFITS even more!

Thanks!!!

 

[ph1l]

Thank you ph1l! So are those generally like inflation protected bond funds? If so, do they really work to protect against inflation? If so, do they just PROTECT you against inflation, or do they allow you to make a bunch of $$$ off it? I'd like protection, but I want FAT PROFITS even more!

Thanks!!!

They appear to protect against inflation with less volatility than stocks, but they won't have great returns.

https://www.thebalance.com/the-benefits-and-risks-of-tips-2466779

The Benefits and Risks of TIPS—Treasury Inflation Protected Securities
Learn the Pros and Cons of TIPS Funds


BY
LEE MCGOWAN

REVIEWED BY
ROGER WOHLNER

Updated November 29, 2020
Treasury inflation protected securities, aka TIPS, are Treasury bonds that are indexed to inflation. However these fixed income investments do not work the same as conventional bonds. Often purchased in mutual funds, TIPS can provide investors a degree of protection against inflation. Investors are wise to learn the benefits and risks of investing in TIPS.


TIPS are Treasury bonds that are designed to preserve purchasing power in the long run by protecting investors against the risk of inflation. They're bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury that have a fixed rate of interest. The dollar amount of the interest payment goes up and down because the principal is always being adjusted according to changes in the Consumer Price Index or CPI1 .


treasury bonds, backed by the U.S. government.

• Low inflation risk: TIPS are indexed for inflation so there's almost no inflation risk as long as your personal rate of inflation is close to the CPI rate1 .

Here are the risks of TIPS:2

• Price fluctuation: Although TIPS are low-risk investments, their market prices can move substantially with changes in real interest rates. That means that the share price of a mutual fund investing in TIPS can vary significantly over the short term.
• Deflation risk: The risk of a general decline in prices, deflation, is the opposite of inflation. If there were to be a long period of deflation, TIPS would potentially lose some value.

U.S. Treasury bonds and TIPS can mostly be attributed to the expected inflation rate.


Although TIPS and other fixed income investments work similar to conventional bonds, investors should understand that TIPS are not guaranteed investments. Although TIPS are indexed to inflation, they are not guaranteed to increase in value during inflationary periods. TIPS respond more to expectations of investors, as opposed to actual movements of inflation. For example, when actual inflation is higher than expected, TIPS will likely outperform conventional bonds, and if actual inflation is lower than expected, TIPS will likely under-perform conventional bonds2.

broad bond diversification and investors should use other types of bond funds as well.

For example, here is a 5-year comparison with SPY including dividends.
https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SCHP/interactive-chart

 

[Temujin79]

My thoughts are probably not best expressed in this forum, it's a fundamental analysis: we'll get high inflation only if the demand outstrips supply, I am talking about goods and services. The US and certainly China still has massive surplus capacity to crank out way more goods than we all need and that's deflationary. If the trade war takes a step further and we cut off everything coming from China then yes I can see inflation in the horizon, I think at this point it'll take a war to get prices way high.

 

[unconventional wisdom]

i think copper and oil will be the mainstream inflation bet among casual investors.

having a similar thought, i am really considering putting 20-30% of my portfolio in FCX, XOM, and similar.

 

[Temujin79]

i think copper and oil will be the mainstream inflation bet among casual investors.

I can see the logic behind that but look at how fast the alternative energies are coming on-line these days. Copper depends a lot on China, how much they build and that's not a sure bet going forward. There is a housing surplus in China, they have overbuilt everything and the government tries to clamp down on GDP growth by construction, they see it as a very inefficient form of growth, so there is risk on betting on both.

 

[KCalhoun]

i think copper and oil will be the mainstream inflation bet among casual investors.

having a similar thought, i am really considering putting 20-30% of my portfolio in FCX, XOM, and similar.

FCX has been great, also following SLV if it continues to trade higher.... beyond FCX I don't know other copper tickers. Agree op re big inflation is on the way

 

[smallfil]

No reason to change one's strategies. I will just switch to buying call options now to put options when stocks go down. Monies can be made both ways. The leverage should give you huge percentage returns in a short period of time. There is nothing out there that would give you those huge returns. Maybe, digital currency but, there is a lot of manipulation and misinformation out there with everyone chasing the same thing. Digital currency probably, too risk for most traders.

 

[noddyboy]

I am convinced inflation is coming. And HARD. Like late 70s/early 80s type stuff, probably worse. If you believed same, and wanted to make as much possible money as you can on it, where would you put your money? I'm not talking short straddles here, these types of one-way bets are probably the only thing short straddles won't work for.

Gold seems an obvious choice, but I think some kind soul posted a chart the other day that was supposed to show that gold was NOT a good protection against inflation?

Other metals? Which ones?

Short bonds? But is it even guaranteed bond yields would necessarily go up if there was inflation - what if the Fed decided nevertheless to keep rates low to help flagging growth in the inflationary environment?

Real estate? Holding actual land versus MLPs (hate the K-1s) or other indirect real estate? Types?

Commodities? ETFs? Futures?

All open to ideas guys, lets ride this coming inflation into the night, scoring millions in the process!@!!! WE ARE ALL IN THIS TOGETHER!!!!!

Obviously buy btc but there are so many bears that it will be hard for you to overcome the mental block.