What is your edge ?

O

oilfxpro

This subject has not been defined correctly in many threads on E T .

After almost 100 posts on the following thread ,the definition of edge is unclear .Since 80 % of trading success is psychology ,I would say the following article defines your edge.

http://www.andrewmenaker.com/category/edge/

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=219739&perpage=6&pagenumber=1

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=236496&perpage=6&pagenumber=1

What do you think is the edge , since many riffraffs use the word edge without any knowledge of edge.
 
Quote from oilfxpro:

This subject has not been defined correctly in many threads on E T .

After almost 100 posts on the following thread ,the definition of edge is unclear .Since 80 % of trading success is psychology ,I would say the following article defines your edge.

http://www.andrewmenaker.com/category/edge/

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=219739&perpage=6&pagenumber=1

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=236496&perpage=6&pagenumber=1

What do you think is the edge , since many riffraffs use the word edge without any knowledge of edge.
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My edge is superior analysis of the short-term trend reversal process. I correctly identify and profit from short-term trend reversals ~65% of the time because I know what to look for. This requires an in-depth understanding of price, time and volatility. It's easy to tell, from my vantage point, that most people are flailing around without a clue.

Psychology is only about 18% of success for me. That is the difference in profit factor between the most psychologically "difficult" variation of my strategy and the most psychologically "easy" variation.
 
Quote from logic_man:

My edge is superior analysis of the short-term trend reversal process. I correctly identify and profit from short-term trend reversals ~65% of the time because I know what to look for. This requires an in-depth understanding of price, time and volatility. It's easy to tell, from my vantage point, that most people are flailing around without a clue.

Psychology is only about 18% of success for me. That is the difference in profit factor between the most psychologically "difficult" variation of my strategy and the most psychologically "easy" variation.
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How does your edge define which short term trend reversals to go for?Only some of the trend reversals are profitable, and only some 35% is my guess.
 
A fascinating number -- "about 18%". Love to know how you would arrive at such a calculation.

Quote from logic_man:

Psychology is only about 18% of success for me.
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Quote from oilfxpro:

How does your edge define which short term trend reversals to go for?Only some of the trend reversals are profitable, and only some 35% is my guess.
More...

That question basically boils down to "What are the details of your strategy?", no?

Obviously, I'm not going to give a detailed answer to that.

I have come up with a completely new (as far as I can tell) concept in volatility analysis. That enables me to discern which trend reversals are real and which ones are retracements. Once my volatility analysis says that a trend might be reversing, I have about a 2/3 chance of being correct.
 
Quote from Swan Noir:

A fascinating number -- "about 18%". Love to know how you would arrive at such a calculation.
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This is the first time I've calculated it, but there are two variants of entry strategy I can use. The first is psychologically a bit more difficult, due to where it requires you to enter a trade relative to some other factors my model takes into account, whereas the second does not have such a requirement. The difference in the profit factors between the two is about 18%.

So, as a proxy for how much psychology impacts my results, that seems like a fair estimate. If I go for the "easy" variation, I'm essentially leaving money on the table in exchange for less psychological angst while in a trade.
 
Quote from logic_man:

That question basically boils down to "What are the details of your strategy?", no?

Obviously, I'm not going to give a detailed answer to that.

I have come up with a completely new (as far as I can tell) concept in volatility analysis. That enables me to discern which trend reversals are real and which ones are retracements. Once my volatility analysis says that a trend might be reversing, I have about a 2/3 chance of being correct.
More...

I think you have something good there.I generally don't give compliments , very rarely do I give them.
 
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