Quote from dunleggin:
Really? The length of your posts and replies suggest otherwise.
My posts also indicate the possibility of a higher typing speed, thus the ability to yield more bang for the buck, so to speak.
Quote from dunleggin:
You definitely have an edge in cant, Veyron. An edge in trading, though? I haven't seen you articulate it clearly if you do. Even if an edge is achieved by complex algorithms, it should be possible to express it simply on the back of a postcard.
That's Circular. Why? Because, you've just implied that what I've posted thus far, cannot fit on the back of a postcard -- yet you follow that same statement with a
postcard having previously come directly from me, and that is a circular statement.
Here's the postcard that you said does not exist:
Quote from Veyron 16.4:
In my opinion, there is not just one edge, but five (5) different edges.
To me, they are known as:
Money Management Model
Timing
Direction
Magnitude
Probability
That is very postcard-like. Short, direct and to the point. It does not have a full derivation, but neither does E ~ MC^2. My hope is that Einstein, would have been proud of such a reduction as stated above.
Quote from dunleggin:
In my opinion, these are not in themselves 'edges'. Informally, [you forgot the word "an" here] 'edge' is often used to [you misplaced the word "an" here] an indicate [you created a double-stanza here] an advantage over a rival or an adversary.
Years ago, in Fighter Transition School (FTS), we were taught (among many other things) something called: Boelcke's Dicta. Over the years, Boelcke, has been modified to adapt the the changes of today's more modern fighter technology. However, the basic elements of Boelcke, still remain relevant, even in today's combat theaters.
Though ECM (Electronic Counter Measures) technology on-board most modern fighters of today, basically make the dicta moot in BVR (Beyond Visual Range) conditions, there still remains a decent probability for the occurrence of the "merge" during close range ACM.
Essentially, there are eight (8) principles of Boelcke and I have designed my trading system around these eight (8) principles. In their distilled (conceptual) form, you arrive at:
Timing
Direction
Magnitude
Probability
I've added the Money Management Model, as none of the principle of Boelcke, speak to this concept. This is how I derive my "advantage," or "edge," if you prefer.
So, while you may not see what I do as a legitimate "edge," the geometric growth rate of my capital over the past three (3) years would tend to be something that I value a bit more as the defining factor for what I do, than your opinion.
Quote from dunleggin:
Formally, I think of it mathematically as a positive expectancy over a series of events (trades), underwritten or validated by statistical tests.
As do I.
Quote from dunleggin:
There are informational edges (Mr.Rajaratnam, but also legal ones such as in ag trading) . There are technology edges (server co-location). Edges that are embedded in market microstructures (e.g., bond rolls and CTD). Edges based on the repeated behavioural tendencies of large players in the markets. An edge could be in a money management model, e.g. position-sizing algorithm.
Inside each one of those edges, you will find at the very least:
Timing
Direction
Magnitude
Probability
Trying to trade successfully without adherence and/or a solution for each of these principles, is like trying to climb Mt. Everest, with severe, chronic and debilitating asthma, with no inhaler. No successful long-term trading of any instrument (not including some derivative spread strategies) can ever be made in the absence of a probabilistic solution for Timing and Direction. In the absence of having a solution for Magnitude and Probability, one can only rely upon luck and casual guesswork.
Quote from dunleggin:
Some here are confident that their edge exists in skills acquired from years of practice in interpreting market action. Possibly such techniques are too subjective to test, and the proof lies, as someone mentioned, in their P&L (and the volatility of that P&L).
The proof of any trader's bottom line worth, exists in their ability to grow capital. Some traders are capable of linear growth of capital, while others are capable of non-linear growth of capital. The vast majority of successful traders fit into the linear category.
Quote from dunleggin:
As others have asked, why would anyone visit here and explicitly describe their perceived or proven edge? Surely a sub-optimal behaviour.
To be quite honest with you, given the attitudes and the massive anti-social dysfunctional behavior that many exhibit on forums such as this, I tend to ask myself why I even bother. At some point, I realize that it has been a very long road and a very steep hill for me to climb, becoming a successful trader. So, at times, I feel like being an inspiration to those just starting out in the business, because I know what it was like when I was green and untested by the markets.
Though, I cannot give away what I have, I can be a source of motivation, because I remember voices from the past who did precisely what I'm doing now, that encouraged and sparked new ideas in my own research. Even though, I don't need constant outside input, in order to complete a task and though I have a firm background and the training to motivate myself to complete a mission or task, I realize that not everyone has that kind of discipline, training or personal history.
So, I (sometimes reluctantly) logon to these forums, in the hopes that some New Trader can be somehow inspired by something that I write. It only takes one small concept or idea, to spark a tidal wave of ideas and new mental energy in some people, that will lead them to better research and ultimately, more profitable trades.
That's why I do it. However, with all the insanely ridiculous personalities that I've come across in the online Trading Community, I often wonder just how much longer, I am going to put up with it, especially when I don't have to.
Quote from dunleggin:
The issue I have with the OP is that he began in a very proclamatory manner, yet I strongly doubt he has achieved a measure of success sufficient to justify the self-confidence his ensuing words evinced. That's also my answer to your other lament about the level of exchanges on ET.
I could tell from the question asked by the OP, that he's still searching for answers - but that's OK, too. I remember that days when I was searching for answers on how to become consistently profitable and that's why I responded to his call for an answer.
The answer that I gave, might not be what he, or others were expecting, but its the answer that I know works. Many are in search of some "edge," without really understanding the essence of what "edge" truly means in this business.
An "edge" is what works - period. However, inside of every single trading edge, you will always find a solution for Timing, Direction, Magnitude, Probability and an appropriate Money Management Model. No, non-directional trading success over the long haul, can ever be sustained with it.
Quote from dunleggin:
As for the frequent commas, I can only presume your inspiration is Virginia Wolfe's 'Mrs Dalloway'.
I was just having some online fun.
