What is your basis of strategy to enter a trade ?

[tommcginnis]

1. is it based on a reasoned, tested hypothesis?
Or
2. is it based on observation and testing of patterns, without actual understanding those patterns?

In other words: could the strategy be based on a pattern that occurs but there is no specific reason or mathematical basis for it?

Interesting question -- but I think what I re-worded is more of what you meant. Yes?

As a one-time tick-scalper, then almost 100% index credit spread writer, and now 70%+ a rules-based trend exploiter (call that, "algo trader" if you wish).... I go back and forth between wishing/needing to form an explicit hypothesis, and just not caring. It *might* be based on the time horizon. It could be that,

• in writing options, I need a hypothesis which suggests that the market will stay between a given high and a given low, for a period two to three weeks out. (I don't care what happens *within* that high and low, just that the market stay bounded, and outside of my short positions further down and higher above.)

• in exploiting a trend, I am only working a pattern, without {much} regard for hows or whys. I enter (long or short) on a shout, and exit on a whisper. (I enter on a multiple of strong indications; I exit on the first hint of trouble. In older terms, I let winners run, I cut losses early.)

Yeah yeah yeah. I like that. Option writing is time related -- you have a necessary market thesis that requires a given {range of} behavior. Trend-following only requires entry+exit rules. Otherwise, it's a hunt for new patterns, whether you can explain them or not. (If they are not robust, your exit rules will take you out.)

 

[Peter8519]

I guess the question I have asked is - is there a reason or mathematical logic to the above pattern or is it just an observation based on which the strategy is built ?

It's a statistical observation. Run a screen in your charting system by counting the number of days a stock stay above 50 day moving average for a period of 1 year. Do a frequency plot and you will see 60% of the observations fall in 20 days or less. For example, HIG, SO and SUI are above the 50 day moving average for 181 days.

 

[tiddlywinks]

Volume. Or lack of. In context. Applies to entries and exits.

 

[notagain]

cat tortures mouse, don't be the mouse

 

[ElectricSavant]

etrades,

4 confirming custom indicators in Tradingview to enter Trade #1...else it works out of the gate or it's a wash trade and reverse to trade#2. I like that handle of the trader here named buy1sell2.

es