What is wrong with the Treasury Market?

Quote from mcurto:

Morgan Stanley began selling ten years around 10:00am, all told by a little after 11:00am they had sold about 25,000 (the biggest about a 6,500 lot), all on the screen, between 109-13.5 and 109-10.5. Some of the pit locals were on the other side on the screen and called upstairs to find out their counterparty. For the most part they scratched at those levels. Not sure who, but someone, was able to push it right in MS face this afternoon, for a good 10 tick rally. Would imagine some other house that had knowledge of the order and exactly who did it. Definitely not the outcome one would have expected after an order of such size, especially how locals scratched a good portion of these, but someone definitely tried to get that guy to puke up the position later in the day.
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I find this info great, keep it coming. I know goldmans said 11.5 was a big level yesterday, perhaps they were loading up.
 
They did same thing this morning, another probably 15,000 to the same levels. And locals probably just scratch again. This time no bid afterward, although we do push out new highs. Whoever has sold all this will be hurting if we keep grinding higher.
 
This afternoon looked like PIMCO (through Goldman) buying about 12,000 ten years or so from 14 down to 12, then back up to 14 on the close (mostly screen). So its obviously them buying down here the last few days, but who is selling? And how much are they hurting? Gotta be the dealers and some hedge funds. Locals just scratching a lot of this for the most part, got a few ticks out of the PIMCO stuff later today.
 
Quote from mcurto:

This afternoon looked like PIMCO (through Goldman) buying about 12,000 ten years or so from 14 down to 12, then back up to 14 on the close (mostly screen). So its obviously them buying down here the last few days, but who is selling? And how much are they hurting? Gotta be the dealers and some hedge funds. Locals just scratching a lot of this for the most part, got a few ticks out of the PIMCO stuff later today.
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What about the thirty year market? Are there indications that PIMCO or Goldman is selling ZB's while buying ZN's?
 
Higher oil prices combined with PIMCO's belief that risk premiums on long term bonds are too low is ONE of several reasons why I suspect PIMCO to sell 30 year bonds while buying the 10 year right now.

<i>With the Fed near the end of its tightening cycle and the term risk premium embedded in the yield near zero, cyclical logic screams that the most important looming change in the “conventional basis of valuation” will be the yield curve: PIMCO firmly believes that over the next 1-2 years, the curve will once again become a curve.</i>
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Late+Breaking+Commentary/FF/2006/FF+January+2006.htm
 
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