What is wrong with the Treasury Market?

[LivermoreRisen]

Quote from Ripley:

What you are doing is Intermarket Analysis. With all due respect to Mr. Ruggerio, I think IMA is voodoo... or only good for writing up academic, and thesis papers.

....concentrate and focus on one market. Not another market with how it correlates to another market.

Thanks very much for the advice. I think that you really have to focus on the market you trade but also on the other markets which tend to have an affect on the market you trade. For example, I have noticed that BONDS tend to move in tandem with Crude Oil. On other days I notice that the bonds move in tandem with the SP and other days, more recently, contrary-wise to the SP. I guess each day is different. There are definitely other factors that I do not know anything about which contribute to the action in the BONDS so my observations may be correlations rather than causations. Some of the comments I have received from elitetrader members about the bond market, in this forum and in my private messages box, have astounded me; such comments made me realize that there was so much more to trading bonds than I had originally thought. I chose bonds because I thought they would be easier to trade than stocks since there are so few debt instruments and a whole universe of stocks.

Thanks a lot.

 

[danoXP]

Quote from LivermoreRisen:

well, if anyone is interested, i will attach my trading report for the last two days. I started trading on Wednesday

Wednesday: +$60 minus $40 in commissions
THURSDAY: -$1171.88 minus $115 or so in commissions

You'll see that most of my trades are losers but my winners can sometimes be huge and offset the losers. Of course, today, there were just a lot of losers. I don't think there was any move I made right. I could have taken a profit of $287 on a three lot early in the morning but chose to just let it ride instead...I rode it up and then rode it back down....I'm unbelievable sometimes...

What should my daily loss limit be on a $20,000 account trading 6 lots at a time?

Any advice would be appreciated

Thanks

My friend, I believe you are overtrading especially for ZN, especially at this time. Everyone appears to be quietly awaiting the big move.

 

[NihabaAshi]

Quote from LivermoreRisen:

...For example, I have noticed that BONDS tend to move in tandem with Crude Oil. On other days I notice that the bonds move in tandem with the SP and other days, more recently, contrary-wise to the SP. I guess each day is different. There are definitely other factors that I do not know anything about which contribute to the action in the BONDS so my observations may be correlations rather than causations...

Hi LivermoreRisen,

I'll repeat...you do not have the experience to understand such observations nor understand when such tends to occur based on the fact you have not provided any specifics (detailed information) with stats or some sort'uv detailed written trading plan about such.

* When and why they move in tandem with each other.
* When and why they move inverse of each other.
* Hints of when which of the above is most likely to occur.
* Market Seasonalities/Tendencies (short term as in day trading or long term as in swing trading)

In my opinion its an advance trading technique and you should first learn the basics for a few years.

That means to concentrate on the ZN, ZB, ZF and their respected yields for trade decisions and nothing else for a few years...

Few Years

Then when your consistently profitable with that...you can explore all that other stuff you've been talking about that's related to correlations with other U.S. or European markets...

All of which is an advance trading technique.

Simply, before you can take the class call Trading 401 you need to pass the class call Trading 101.

Mark
(a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term

 

[landboy]

Quote from danoXP:

My friend, I believe you are overtrading especially for ZN, especially at this time. Everyone appears to be quietly awaiting the big move.

Ya, it's hard to trade chop... I'm outta my position, I have NO idea where we're going next, but since we've been going sideways, the trend is over, I"m waiting until we breakout either way...

 

[LivermoreRisen]

Quote from NihabaAshi:

Hi LivermoreRisen,

I'll repeat...you do not have the experience to understand such observations nor understand when such tends to occur based on the fact you have not provided any specifics (detailed information) with stats or some sort'uv detailed written trading plan about such.

* When and why they move in tandem with each other.
* When and why they move inverse of each other.
* Hints of when which of the above is most likely to occur.
* Market Seasonalities/Tendencies (short term as in day trading or long term as in swing trading)

In my opinion its an advance trading technique and you should first learn the basics for a few years.

That means to concentrate on the ZN, ZB, ZF and their respected yields for trade decisions and nothing else for a few years...

Few Years

Then when your consistently profitable with that...you can explore all that other stuff you've been talking about that's related to correlations with other U.S. or European markets...

All of which is an advance trading technique.

Simply, before you can take the class call Trading 401 you need to pass the class call Trading 101.

Mark
(a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term

Very well put. I do focus on the debt market but does it really hurt to have charts of Crude oil, Gold, and stocks up as well? The observations I have made have come from having those charts up over the last few months during which I have been watching the markets. Probably the mistake I've made is to assume that certain relationships hold and, since I/ve started trading last week, to trade on such assumptions. Thanks for your comments...I appreciate it

 

[LivermoreRisen]

Quote from landboy:

Ya, it's hard to trade chop... I'm outta my position, I have NO idea where we're going next, but since we've been going sideways, the trend is over, I"m waiting until we breakout either way...

Quote from danoXP:

My friend, I believe you are overtrading especially for ZN, especially at this time. Everyone appears to be quietly awaiting the big move.

Friday seemed to be a significant move day for ZN. In case you are interested, I have attached a list of my trades for the day. Up $287 with 39 RTs. I feel better after having a decent positive day after my disaster on Thursday.

NOTE: the text in BLUE and RED are the actual trades that went through. The grey text shows orders which have been cancelled.

 

[NihabaAshi]

Quote from LivermoreRisen:

Very well put. I do focus on the debt market but does it really hurt to have charts of Crude oil, Gold, and stocks up as well? The observations I have made have come from having those charts up over the last few months during which I have been watching the markets. Probably the mistake I've made is to assume that certain relationships hold and, since I/ve started trading last week, to trade on such assumptions. Thanks for your comments...I appreciate it

Hi LivermoreRisen,

I understand what your talking about.

However, the question is are you able to use that info and convert it into consistent profits ?

If not...than those charts are most likely either giving you mixed signals or your interpreting the information of whatever you were looking at during the time you were making a trade decision.

Simply, its too much food on your plate right now.

Stick to the basics and get very good at it before moving up to the next level.

Such will take more than a few months.

With that said...

Lets assume your following the charts below:

* SP Index or Futures
* Light Crude Oil
* Gold
* ZF, ZN and ZB
* Yields FVX.X, TNX.X and TYX.X

That's too much information (Trading 401) for a newbie Treasury trader especially if your written trading plan hasn't been backtested (a few months isn't good enough).

Keep it simple and concentrate on the following along with reducing your position size while your still learning the basics that also involves position size managment:

* ZF, ZN and ZB
* Yields FVX.X, TNX.X and TYX.X

Mark
(a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term

 

[LivermoreRisen]

Quote from NihabaAshi:

Hi LivermoreRisen,

I understand what your talking about.

However, the question is are you able to use that info and convert it into consistent profits ?

If not...than those charts are most likely either giving you mixed signals or your interpreting the information of whatever you were looking at during the time you were making a trade decision.

Simply, its too much food on your plate right now.

Stick to the basics and get very good at it before moving up to the next level.

Such will take more than a few months.

With that said...

Lets assume your following the charts below:

* SP Index or Futures
* Light Crude Oil
* Gold
* ZF, ZN and ZB
* Yields FVX.X, TNX.X and TYX.X

That's too much information (Trading 401) for a newbie Treasury trader especially if your written trading plan hasn't been backtested (a few months isn't good enough).

Keep it simple and concentrate on the following along with reducing your position size while your still learning the basics that also involves position size managment:

* ZF, ZN and ZB
* Yields FVX.X, TNX.X and TYX.X

Mark
(a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term

Thanks so much for that. If I have too many things to think about, I may not focus on what is most important: the instrument that I am trading. I understand you perfectly.

 

[johnpinochet]

LivermoreRisen,

You are up 287.00 USD on 39 RT?

That is a lot of churning to only be up 287.00. Were you down thousands of dollars and made your way back up, or is that a typical day?

jp

 

[danoXP]

Quote from LivermoreRisen:

Friday seemed to be a significant move day for ZN. In case you are interested, I have attached a list of my trades for the day. Up $287 with 39 RTs. I feel better after having a decent positive day after my disaster on Thursday.

NOTE: the text in BLUE and RED are the actual trades that went through. The grey text shows orders which have been cancelled.

I am more worried about a day (or maybe in this case a few minutes) like this ... taking you down ... being on the wrongside of a move like this from 114-270 to 112-110 in minutes without ability to cover.

... "event risk" (China floats, terrorist attack, a leader dies, osama caught, etc)