What is up with this rally?

[Specterx]

My first guess would be retail sales (though the numbers weren't that great), though it is something of a mystery, the uptrend on the ES has been going steady since 3:40EST yesterday so I doubt today's news is the reason. Could be that the sell programs are primed, they're just waiting for some bad news to pull the trigger. Some of the selling would have been in anticipation of further big writedowns, poor earnings, trouble with the bond insurers etc. which hasn't quite come to pass. That said I think we'll have another week or so of flat or slightly up markets with a big selloff by month's end, to retest the lows.

No idea why there would be unexpected/uncorrelated behavior in the 10yr markets, etc.

 

[TradStSOX]

Take a look at ES weekly fast stochastics and you'll see why!
A reverse twin V head, Head and Shoulder indicating extreme accumulation or rather artificial support, causing the rally which will still continue well up into low 1400's and them will tank like never before!

 

[1flyfisher]

You're the one that doesn't know why the market has gone up and is searching for an answer and is now complaining when you get one.
The market finally strung together three up days in a row and you can't understand why yet you dismiss the fact that it is a bear market rally. Maybe it can be said that The market yesterday interpreted the Buffet news as a positive and Today some good tech news. Bear Market rally.

Quote from Ivanovich:

True pearls of wisdom in this thread!

A bear market rally? I refuse to believe that is the reason. There has to be a fundamental reason a bit more specific than "bear market rally" and a bit more specific than "more buyers than sellers."

Heh...you guys kill me. I could have just made a post that said 100% up room to go $$$!! and been done with it. I'm just trying to spark up some conversation. Meaningful conversation, that is. I guess that's where I went wrong!

My next post will be all about PAL and SWC and how they're going to triple digits. That seems to be the only type of post that works around here!

 

[kinggyppo]

Quote from Ivanovich:

Not that I care, but it's not following any of the logic it has followed in the last few months. Carry trades are selling off, metals, too. 10 year is still up as well...This, in addition to all the bad news out there coming across the feed. The retail sales numbers weren't even that good when you dive into them.

Yet the market is up on...?

Don't forget the Roger Clemens Senate dog and pony show. I love how the guys sit up on the throne pontificating, priceless!!


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/13/sports/baseball/13cnd-clemens.html?ref=sports

 

[piezoe]

Quote from SchraderTrader:

the market was oversold and it's option expiration week.

Schrader and MVIC have it right. It's option expiration week guys. It is very common for there to be buying pressure in options expiration week. something to do with arbitrage and buying programs i guess. Let's wait until next week to see whether this is for real. In the meantime lets continue our brilliant trading and let the market do its thing..

 

[Pa(b)st Prime]

Quote from DataCruncher:

I wouldn't be surprised if at 3:45 or 3:50 a algorithmic selling program triggers a selloff. lately it seems like the market has been brutal as hell, reversals at the last minute

Real nice call!!

 

[Pilotboy]

Quote from MKTrader:

If any major index breaks its Feb. 1 high, all bets are off. In that case, you'll have a

A) capitulation bottom (Jan 22-23)
B) Followed by a small rally (peaked Feb 1)
C) Followed by a retest of the low (last week. which didn't come close to the January lows)
D) And then a higher high (such as S&P > 1400)

This is the pattern that ends most corrections and bear markets.

Even if that happens, I wouldn't be surprised to see another 1 or 2 retests of the lows in the late spring, summer or fall. It could be a good year to swing trade both directions at the extremes. But the strong bias for shorting/"sell every rally" will be gone.

Finally some wisdom. there is hope for ET after all.

 

[piezoe]

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

Real nice call!!

That and Datacrunchers prediction taken together is one of the most humorous posts i've encountered on ET (Apparently, I am easily amused. I'm still chuckling)

 

[S2007S]

Quote from S2007S:

SELL THE RALLY.


Last time the dow ran to 12700+ everyone was thinking theres nothing wrong with the economy, days later the markets dropped 5%+. Sell the rallies buy the sell offs, simple as that. The economy didnt get better because the dow rallies 150+ points....

sell the rallies

 

[stockeygordy]

Maestro -I'm curious what software you are running on your 24 monitor display -looks good. thanks for your reply.