What is the Winning Rate of Pure Mechanical System?

[Swan Noir]

What is it about ES that produces a better percentage?

Quote from Zoethecus:

On ES, a tad over 90%.

Other futures, mid 80s.

 

[Zoethecus]

Quote from Swan Noir:

What is it about ES that produces a better percentage?

The pattern shows up more frequently.

 

[stupek]

Considering that the ES shows 2 trades /runs intraday both abojut the same, why only 1 pattern per day? and not 2? How many years has it worked for you?

 

[stupek]

It appears that your system gives 2 or more entries per day but you are so direction biased which only allows you emotionally to trade one direction, which is a common affliction.

 

[Zoethecus]

Quote from stupek:

It appears that your system gives 2 or more entries per day but you are so direction biased which only allows you emotionally to trade one direction, which is a common affliction.

Say what?

Do you know what a mechanical system is? Doesn't sound like you do.

 

[stupek]

Program and mechanical are not the same

 

[Zoethecus]

Quote from stupek:

Program and mechanical are not the same

Perhaps you should read the title of this thread. Do you see the word "program?"

Do you see the word "program" in any of my posts here?

 

[stupek]

let us be friends so we can make money trading the emini markets. I trade the NQ and ES, what do you trade?

 

[chipmunk]

oh I guess all those millionaire trend follwing method traders must be doing it wrong then?

This is a B*S* post.


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low % wins destroys confidence of most before they get started good. low % is for whom? the experienced? NO because he is smarter than that with experience under his mouse...then why the low% system? unless one is inexperienced trader poking and hoping. Most good traders lose seldom. When they do they accept it, but big losers % rate tells me trader is lower level trader.

 

[Eight]

I could go for a strategy that has a very high win rate but it would trade very infrequently. There is a tradeoff of win rate, win/loss ratio and frequency of trades that just cannot be avoided...

Either you have to have massive computing capabilities and test on a huge folio or you have to decide what your "style" is and go with that... I'd do infrequent high probability trades but it's much harder to deal with in the area of drawdown.. a high freq. system might have drawdown for an hour or two, an infrequent one could drag on for weeks and it would be hard to keep the faith... I'm cross breeding those currently, infrequent and high probability but intraday.. a drawdown could not last all that long, in fact two losses in a row would really raise questions about the veracity of the backtest... I just like to sleep well, I'm not a gambler, I like the downside scenario to be contained and well managed.. that's my style...