What is the monthly expected return trading stocks?

[themickey]

@themickey for giving some insight in your accounts.

But it seems that you tend to hold in stead of daytrading? OP asked about daytrading.

I'm attempting to point out that 3k per month on a 30k account after expenses for a day trading account is very highly unlikely attainable. You might do it one month in the year if lucky and that is for an experienced trader, imo.

 

[birzos]

You don't really need to know if I am inside or outside the 1%.

Of course I do given your quote "But I could not make money day trading: Market refused to follow my system". So we come to the "not smart enough to calculate the figures". It's very simple, if you know how to search for the statistics and actually understand them, you would already be in the top 1%.

If you don't like the statistics due to cognitive dissonance you can happily ignore they exist, 99% already do. I understand the psychology of your approach, people see a bipolar view believing they can, overnight, understand that of which they have no experience.

If it is so important for you to have finite answers, I have made various references to the information in the past, you are happy to look through the posts.

 

[birzos]

I'm attempting to point out that 3k per month on a 30k account after expenses for a day trading account is very highly unlikely attainable. You might do it one month in the year if lucky and that is for an experienced trader, imo.

Absolutely correct, which averages out to 1% per month. What people with no experience are clueless about is that the mathematics of it is incredibly simple, the problem is that due to their own personal problems, lack of capital/time/knowledge/discipline/tools, they think the universe owes them something. It doesn't, and nor does anyone else, it is amazing how ungrateful everyone is when you tell them something they don't want to hear, funny world.

One point, your Formula1 statement is incorrect, the lower the timeframe (faster) the more technical it becomes (cost), which magnifies any anomalies that do not exist at higher timeframes. That is the essence of Formula 1, perfection in strategy, implementation and execution at high speed. Actually that's a good story, McLaren asked me to go and work for them some years back, I asked what consulting rate were they were offering me, they said many people work for free to be part of the team and need to negotiate a rate, I told them to get lost.

 

[tiddlywinks]

On 9/11, Cantor Fitzgerald Relief Fund donates 100% of its GLOBAL profits to charity.
That is approximately 10 to 12 million FOR THE DAY.

Assuming 220 trading days in a year, Cantor Fitzgerald has approximate annual GLOBAL PROFIT of 2.2 billion.

You may want to argue apples and oranges: Cantor is fixed income, the thread is about equities, fair enough. What you should be noting however is how Cantor was able to scale... Multiple offices (worldwide) and hundreds of traders. Something the retail trader, no matter the instrument(s) traded, may or may not have interest in doing/becoming.

Back to the thread... I agree a 30K equity trading account (even with 4:1 day buying power) would have a difficult time consistently profiting 10% per month NET.

The same however is not (necessarily) true for other instruments, such as futures... a 30K futures trading account can trade 3 contracts per (conservative, imo) and throw off multiples of 10% per month NET. Of course, profiting through any vehicle or instrument, for retail folk, is 100% dependent on how well the trader executes his craft.

But make no mistake... No matter equities, fixed income, futures, or any other vehicle, there is a point where scaling is no longer pure math and becomes un-doable without additional resources outside of nominal account value.

 

[ironchef]

They are guesstimates... because I seriously doubt that any 'info' on the internet about this is hard evidence... so the detailed numbers @birzos gives are merely based on chinese whispers.

Appreciate your answer. However, I couldn't even find any chinese whispers on these numbers?

Any statistics on traders are of interest to me since I am a trader myself.

 

[ironchef]

Of course I do given your quote "But I could not make money day trading: Market refused to follow my system".

Thank you for your response. That is an absolutely true statement. That was why I gave up day trading back in early 2000 and have not seriously tried again. Every time I made an attempt, I lost money.

Swing trade, on the other hand....

I will search your prior posts to see where you came up with those statistics. I do hope I can learn something from you.

Best wishes to you

 

[maximumpossiblesuffering]

Here are some trading ideas with stats for an focused, experienced, undistracted, and disciplined trader:

Reversion to mean: 80% winners or break-even on short side, risk to reward 1:1, limited trade size, typically one opportunity per day following several symbols. Look for strong underlying daily uptrend, wait for a flurry of activity on a shorter time frame, enter when this activity slows down substantially, use a time stop of two or so periods. Objective is retracement of wide bar.
Do not try this if you are undisciplined or have little experience trading the markets. Learn price action first.

Event trend reversal: Wait for significant negative event causing a significant price move in the SP500 or related stock index, wait for bids to firm up, go long, use a stop below previous low. >60% winners on long side, risk to reward >3:1, can accommodate large size. Many times this can be a good swing trade. Typically has two opportunities per month.

There are many money making strategies in the market, but every one sees or understands things differently. What works for one person will not necessarily work for someone else. It takes time to learn the markets and one needs to have a solid source of capital starting out.

Most people are best served by working at their profession, getting the income tax break for setting up a retirement account, investing in a low fee ETF, and taking their 7% or so average long term rate of return for minimal time invested.

 

[birzos]

Thank you for your response. That is an absolutely true statement. That was why I gave up day trading back in early 2000 and have not seriously tried again. Every time I made an attempt, I lost money.

Swing trade, on the other hand....

I will search your prior posts to see where you came up with those statistics. I do hope I can learn something from you.

Best wishes to you

Incorrect, it was abundantly clear from your first reply that you are hardwired to a logarithmic curve.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/posts/4443744/

Now, some people can make money from a logarithmic curve, however they are unable to understand that the input is always greater than the output, a means to an end.

Those in the top 1% understand an exponential curve, it is the key to success where the input matches the output, and in rare cases the output exceeds the input. If you are generating returns but with more input, logarithmic, then you are not in the top1%, it is synthetic, it is a subtle but material difference which will destroy most peoples accounts if they try.

And yes, I can interchange between a logarithmic and exponential strategy in the blink of an eye, but I only use the former for exploration or to avoid a loss for capital preservation, never to make profits. For a few people (yourself) and in some cases (myself) a logarithmic is a workable approach, it is why you believe there is a crossover where none exists.

 

[yiehom]

Are you playing the shares game with ASX ? I am, and enjoying it, although I can only put in limit orders since I am asleep when your exchange is open.
Do you think I should by BHP? I have it in my watchlist, but affraid it might be ripe for a retrace.

Disagree. Day trading is not Formula 1. Day trading is labor expensive, your fees and slippage are high, your set up costs are high, the only part which is Formula 1 is stress and pace.

I'm in Australia, our market is currently open, my positions are doing ok,at close of trade today I will outline fully how much money I made/lost. The reason, I do not believe a day trader would outperfom me. Why? You cant match my position size relative to risk and my very low costs. Plus, I have experience which would far surpass many ET traders. (In terms of years experience)
Market here closing in about 20 minutes.

 

[ironchef]

Incorrect, it was abundantly clear from your first reply that you are hardwired to a logarithmic curve.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/posts/4443744/

Now, some people can make money from a logarithmic curve, however they are unable to understand that the input is always greater than the output, a means to an end.

Those in the top 1% understand an exponential curve, it is the key to success where the input matches the output, and in rare cases the output exceeds the input. If you are generating returns but with more input, logarithmic, then you are not in the top1%, it is synthetic, it is a subtle but material difference which will destroy most peoples accounts if they try.

And yes, I can interchange between a logarithmic and exponential strategy in the blink of an eye, but I only use the former for exploration or to avoid a loss for capital preservation, never to make profits. For a few people (yourself) and in some cases (myself) a logarithmic is a workable approach, it is why you believe there is a crossover where none exists.

Thank you for your coaching. I actually agree with you and I think you know what you are doing sir.

Let's just say that I do take advantage of asymmetric payoffs.

Best to you.