i liked it but i think risk control is important.obviously in hindsight exiting and adding might have been the best almost like a MARTINGALE strategy versus just holding the entire bag. i worked my way out of it by taking losses at optimal points as best i could once i got hung up in the land of loss and i wasn't scared to just keep adding since i had lightened up the load a little. i am bullish but i haven't traded overnight in a long time. i actually hate it! fun
What is the edge in your trade?
- Thread starter ffs1001
- Start date
did some more for ya?? where are your trades?
lol you just destroyed your level 10 Boss rep in 10 posts. That was f*cking embarrassing.
some guy thought i was you or something and said i wouldnt show my trades.
volpri, my sense is that the above portion of your analysis is absolutely key in defining the risk-reward of your plan.
You acknowledge that you're buying at the top of what you call an exhaustion bar, and continue to buy at all levels down to the base of the new trading range, rather than weighting buys to the low end of the range.
Per the usual, off-the-shelf risk-reward assessment that does not account for probability, it's high-risk, or at least sub-optimal, to buy at/near the top of an exhaustion bar, and here the potential reward for the scale is paltry, miniscule, nada, compared to how much could be lost per your stop, far, far below.
But your assessment of context produced what Brooks refers to as a profitable Traders Equation -- you assessed the probability of your stop being hit as especially low.
It seems to me that your Traders Equation really includes more than the components of the scale, though:
=> You planned the scale w/ the intention of going short if your stop was hit. And you expected that the short would be very profitable if triggered.
So the scale and the potential stop-n-reverse followup are really part of a single trade.
Thus a risk-reward assessment for your plan must account for BOTH trading operations. When that is done, the risk-reward is much more favorable than when based on the scale only.
Based on your long experience w/ scales, you have basis for assessing the scale as having an excellent traders equation, due to (your assessment of) context. But I think equally important is that you've got the stop-n-reverse fallback, a kind of hedge that drastically alters the risk reward of your plan.
When your full plan is seen as one trade, I think that the more typical approaches to risk-reward would nod yes.
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REDPs garbage trading shows what you learn from Trading In The Zone: that you can make money on garbage entries if you manage it well. REDP has garbage management and garbage entries.
First, he goes against the trend because he's retarded.
Second, he averages down because he is double retarded.
My nibba, if the trend is against you, why are you fighting it? Most of the code I write for trading is to prevent me from going against the trend.
First, he goes against the trend because he's retarded.
Second, he averages down because he is double retarded.
My nibba, if the trend is against you, why are you fighting it? Most of the code I write for trading is to prevent me from going against the trend.
booby mcnoon...great input. lets see u run some code live. i forced the trade and yeah i was bottom fishing but i ended up doing okay. why dont u show us real time how its done on the overnight session?
i did trade counter trend ..not good