I think it you don't back test correctly and with enough data, all the wishing, you will go broke. If you can't sim trade ten times the amount of your capital, you will go broke, your subconscious has to know you can do it and have all the answers before the questions.
What is the big picture?
- Thread starter Sure Chap
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I think it you don't back test correctly and with enough data, all the wishing, you will go broke. If you can't sim trade ten times the amount of your capital, you will go broke, your subconscious has to know you can do it and have all the answers before the questions.
I've actually just started paper day trading. So far I've remained relatively in the green. My system doesn't seem to work on longer time frames but I'll see how I progress. Three days of green so far.
imho there is a holy grail
for the OP: the big picture for you should be the recognition that analysis (be it TA, FA or QA) is not a method... on top of that what is shared with public not even close to what is known and developed by some
so in fact in the big picture one stands no chance unless one develops analyses and methods beyond what is publicly known. That's why after reading all the books , and taking all the curses most fail (and do not ever think that it's because they were lucking discipline or efforts)
its because one has not only to invent the bicycle, not only to learn how to ride it but also to become a tour de france winner
To backtest is a first step.
To Sim trade is a second one.
To Trade for Real is a third one.
Three days is really nothing reliable.
By the way .. Do you really have a plan ?!
I mean Did you follow the exact same process ?
If not ... It's foolish to keep a record of your trades.
FYI .. I've accumulated 20 days of records Demoing,
That was also green. But I wasn't following the same plan.
Then I turned from demo to live. And money I lost as a monkey.
Don't focus on what prove you right.
But on what (could) prove you wrong.
Focus on weakness rather than strength.
Because you won't make it till' you're weak.
Search for vulnerability, flaws and weaknesses.
You could be 99% Robust, 1% Fragile but still fail.
It would be a disaster if planes were as Robust as that.
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imho there is a holy grail
A holy grail ?
Uh ... Maybe. But I didn't find it.
You mean if I touch it then I'll be successful ?
It's maybe ... The door that leads straight on the virtuous path ?
Deliberate Practice ? Will to Survive ? A Girl Friend ? A baby phone ?
he-he you asking my definition of holy grail?
its a set of patterns and rules that work most of the time (probably 80-90%) and the method based on them should be scalable and universal
I see those patterns or so I think too. I'm no where near as sophisticated but I'm a discretionary trader.... God I hope my account doesn't blow up. I have no idea how to backtest I just replay market data obviously you see how noob I'm still.
There is no shame being a noob.
Or even not knowing how to backtest.
But it's certainly a huge handicape... That's it.
You could test a strategy at the speed of light but ...
It's also doable over an entire life span. What if it sucks ?
You'll have to ask a second life for Christmas. And you'll learn it.
From Wikipedia :
You're right. Sounds like a holy grail.
There is however a little 10-20% deterioration.
But that's a vestige we can't complain about time decay.
Don't mind to share your grail !
Infinite abundance should be enough for everyone !
Kiddin'
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