Quote from Frits:
Because us humans need something to hold on to. In trading there is no such thing, coz the market does what it does. It moves random.
What you need to learn is to accept that markets move a random and mentally that is hard for some people. In fact, some will never learn to do so. When I'm talking about 10% knowledge and trading on the basis of letting your profits run I'm talking about things like:
- Not going long when the market is already up 1.1%. Because the major part of your upward potential is already gone. How often does the market go up 2% or more? It can happen, but it's not likely to happen. (yes I've seen the fluctuations lately, we had a record in the Dow of four days with a swing of more than 400 points. It can happen, but it's not that we set a record every year).
- Not going short when the market is up 1.6%. Because your downward potential might look enormous, but it's not likely that after being up 1.6% a market in such a positive sentiment will close at 0.3% It can happen, but it's not likely.
These are clear examples, but there are other examples that ask for more explanation. But as mentioned this is the stuff you learn on the job.
Nevertheless you don't have to agree. I'm just sharing info and what you do with it is for you to decide.
Shaka,
Frits
If the market was nothing but random price movement its mean price averaged over time would approach a horizontal line. No one, on average could make any money. Obviously the market is not random! The market is not predictable with a probability of 1, and the market appears to contain within price movement a random component, but the market is NOT random. It is utter nonsense to say "the market is random".
You wrote: "- Not going short when the market is up 1.6%. Because your downward potential might look enormous, but it's not likely that after being up 1.6% a market in such a positive sentiment will close at 0.3% It can happen, but it's not likely."
without commenting on the correctness of that statement by you, I ask you: could what you wrote have any validity if the market was random?

[I don't want to be too hard on you, because it appears that your first language is not English. You may not understand the meaning of the word "random". ]