Quote from jem:
specula8tor- You get no arguments from me I have made your same points in the past. I was stating that there a lot of people without an edge blaming their psyche instead of their approach.
Hey Jem!
If I stepped into the batter's box against even a poor minor league pitcher, I would probably fail to get a hit. I have neither the reflex's, form, nor experience to complete the skill set needed to successfully hit professional pitching. However if I was seasoned and had a large enough sample of at-bats that seemingly proved that I was a competitive hitter and then I went into a slump, I would guess that my problems were more a symptom of diminished "inner game" preparation than "outer game" mechanics.
Certainly in trading we all go through spells where we hit line drives right at the shortstop, or we nail one but the wind keeps the ball in the park. We also make the bad trade that still works, i.e. the dribbler up the middle. Most commonly though streakiness is part of our psyche. We have a certain level of competence and with maximum concentration we perform at the level our personal adeptness allows us. At some point we begin to
exceed what we
believe to be our performance limits. That limiting belief may be based on bias derived from historical standards, or we may "top out" because of various guilt discomforts regarding success. Even those who regard themselves as steely, remorseless, cold blooded warriors will at some point succumb to the most dreaded disease of all, over confidence. For over confidence not only in quick fashion causes actions such as over-trading, and poorly adjusted position sizing, but over confidence today may breed lack of confidence in to-morrow. So now instead of being that disciplined hitter who demands a perfect pitch, we start swinging at balls out of the strike zone because as we all know, you can't hit a home run if you're not swinging.
The great hitters know that personal ebbs and flows are part of not only
the game, but of
their game. An all-star knows that plateaus are inevitable and that the troughs must be minimized. What a hitter/trader must not do, is jeopardize his season or his career by engaging in past revisitation, that vain effort of ego defense that always fails to eradicate the consequences of natural setbacks in performance. We've all seen how a dropped pass causes even a great quarterback to throw an interception into triple coverage, or how a close point on the line creates such havoc with a tennis player that a previously winnable match becomes a series of unforced errors. The market is nothing but a game. She may be as unpredictable as whether the next pitch will be a knuckler or a curve, or she may look like a beach ball coming toward the plate. She is what she is, afterall it's
our perception that's variable. We are merely athletes. Perhaps we're sedentary folks, sitting in a chair all day but we have the same emotions and hindrances as that free throw shooter on the line with no time left on the clock and a championship resting literally on his fingertips.
For the trader not yet competent or skillfully to be trading in the "big leagues", the psychological aspects of life (yes life, even bad relationships have the nuances of bad trades) need be secondary to developing form. But not
too far behind, for in an endeavor that has roughly a 50/50 probable outcome on each shot, if played masterfully you can still outshoot Shaq from the line.