I guess we need to define predictable. If predictable is that the SPY wont go to 0 or 1,000 by year end then it is predictable. I do predict a trading range (based on placing probabilities in my favor) as I sell premium but there is no way to know (In my opinion) for sure that when I enter a position which way the underlying is going just that it will hopefully stay within a predicted range. When it does stay within a statistically predicted range I profit when it does not I lose. As long as I win more than I lose its profitable which is the case.
What is Technical Analysis? Why does it work?
- Thread starter iamnewuser911
- Start date
I wouldn't be surprise if Yellen did do such. In fact, I think she talks to them more often than we think.
I think that's right about Yellen. She talks to me too ...thru an encrypted net.
Low less than Low[1] "failure"
Higher High "success"
ect.
As long as she is not "yelling" at you...
This is an advanced strategy with a chart included on how professionals are using a simple H & S pattern to trade real money. What I think is useful in this article is how they are using a hedge like strategy to make money on both longer term possible upside while also profiting on a short term weakness in prices. Obviously, for those that think the market is random, don't know how to trade, or are bitter sock puppets who blew out their imaginary accounts by not using TA can skip this article.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/te...16-04-01?mod=MW_story_trending&Link=obnetwork
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/te...16-04-01?mod=MW_story_trending&Link=obnetwork
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...4?mod=MW_story_recommended_tab&Link=obnetwork
As I have previously noted in other posts, Fed moves creates non random PA that can be traded using advanced TA. What's nice about this article is showing the results could be produced randomly is 86 million to 1 against. Also, useful is the possibility that the Fed might have run out of silver bullets suggesting Trump might be right about a possible fall in stock prices going forward. Using TA will tell you when you short since as some know you can be right but still go broke if you get the timing off.
As I have previously noted in other posts, Fed moves creates non random PA that can be traded using advanced TA. What's nice about this article is showing the results could be produced randomly is 86 million to 1 against. Also, useful is the possibility that the Fed might have run out of silver bullets suggesting Trump might be right about a possible fall in stock prices going forward. Using TA will tell you when you short since as some know you can be right but still go broke if you get the timing off.
Being right and getting the timing off is what makes money management around a directional trade the difficult part. You can hold until your right, but usually holding until your right involves higher risk. When you have that high risk what happens when your wrong? This is a reason why I believe money management is more important than picking the right direction. Traders can get away with being wrong on direction (For example I trade based on a non directional range) to a point if they are good at managing money.
What you are referring to is trade management where we are not even at that stage yet since we are still at the stage that of providing proof of predictability and being right. For those that are able to get beyond that 1st stage, then and only then should they move over to the thread section on trade or as you say money management. You are trying to describe the color blue to those that are psychologically blinded. They first need to open their eyes to see the sky.
Having an edge is only 20% of a trading system. Being able to apply the edge, using trade and money management. Control of emotions and maybe having a daily target and/or stop. Also, the understanding of win%. TA does not mean that every trade is a winning trade. However, if you can achieve a positive win% then you can progress to these next steps.
Having an edge is only 20% of a trading system. Being able to apply the edge, using trade and money management. Control of emotions and maybe having a daily target and/or stop. Also, the understanding of win%. TA does not mean that every trade is a winning trade. However, if you can achieve a positive win% then you can progress to these next steps.
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What you say basically is: trading is buying low and selling high. But as you have no clue how to do that you just jump in and out, and money management should generate the profit?
Can you explain how you can get away with being wrong on the direction thanks to money management? You get in and the trade goes against you, what then? You lose money as the price went the wrong way. How can you get out without a loss thanks to money management?
Your strategy is the weirdest thing I ever read. The only thing you can do is take position in both directions and cut the wrong one as quick as possible.
As trading is buying low and selling high, the first thing to do is find a system to buy low and sell high. After that and only AFTER THAT you work on money management. Money management should protect you against black swan or unexpected events. Money management is not used to generate profits, but to protect profits.