You can never make profits by taking the wrong direction. I know that Elite Traders are elite, but even for Elite Traders that is impossible.
If you make profits it means the direction was right.
You can sell an OTM call which is short in direction and you can still profit if the underlying rises within a certain range. Thus being wrong in direction and still making a profit.
Yes I know of such a system, but unfortunatelly for you I don't want to disclose it.
Your statement confirms my point as you said:So far I haven't found that system.
The person defines if something is random or not.
What is Technical Analysis? Why does it work?
- Thread starter iamnewuser911
- Start date
Many people make the mistake thinking the market is not random while many people make the mistake that the market is random.
Do not try to bend the market, that's impossible. Instead try to realize the truth, there is no market. Then you will see, it is you that must bend.
Do not try to bend the market, that's impossible. Instead try to realize the truth, there is no market. Then you will see, it is you that must bend.
That's not why I asked.
I asked because your same logic that says the markets have no randomness can also be applied to a coin flip. Name one random variable associated with a coin flip.
The flip is governed by the laws of physics and gravity, etc. How much torque and upward force did the thumb apply to the coin? Air density? Temperature? Air speed, moisture? Size, weight of coin? Coefficient of friction of the surface of the coin? Height of thumb from floor? Type of floor? Altitude of location? ETC.
With every piece of data and a computer powerful enough, the flip can be predicted as the outcome is based upon maths. HOWEVER, the inability to obtain accurate enough data ESSENTIALLY makes a coin flip random, as you admit.
If we carefully control all variables, we can build a machine that will flip a coin and give the same result every time. It's not random.
The same holds true, to an even greater degree for all complex adaptive systems (complex systems basically are systems which all workings are unknown or unknowable). If you visit that wikipedia link, you will see 'stock market' listed. ALL variables, AND their values, that affect the markets at any given point in time, are either unknown, or unknowable.
But as I've stated, the world is usually not either only black or white. The markets have both random (essentially) and less random (predictable to a degree) components.
Finally, anyone that states that the markets contain no randomness (or "essentially-randomness") should never have a losing trade. But please don't hang your hat on refuting only this closing opinion...try refuting the above logic and reasoning instead.
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I never try to bend the market, bending the market has nothing to do with non randomness. I follow the market, never bend it. But as data is not random I know which direction the market will go and take advantage of that.
Flipping coins is random as long as people cannot control the behavior of the flipping. When they can control it, flipping becomes non random. As I stated before: random or not is person related, not market related. In fact you confirm this now.
I propose you to predict the coin flipping with a +90% correct outcome, as I do in trading. I don't care what theoretically is possible if it is in reality impossible. Can you calculate how much each of your elements can influence the outcome of coin flipping? Because their influence might be too small to change the outcome too, you don't know as you can even not calculate it. I try to achieve the maximum that realisticly is achievable. I replace all this hypothetical reasoning by sound and simple logic. And when tested in real life I see immediatelly what works and what doesn't.
No, it should be: non random and "less" non random, which is still non random.
Wrong,
- people can make mistakes, nobody is perfect in real life.
- even in non random data there is a band within which the market moves. Non random does not mean that you know each tick exactly. As long as the market moves within this range the data is non random. Once out of this range it should be interpreted as a change of direction, and you should get out or reverse. At that moment it still is non random but moving in a new (non random) direction. I trade the ES and NEVER have a loss bigger than 3 points (can be 1 tick more if I react too slow). That's my non random range.
- There is always a lag in the signals. You cannnot see a bottom before the bottom is there, as you need the data from the bottom (and even after the bottom) to calculate the bottom.
- You can enter and have to close quickly as the entry was a bad one. Non random does not mean that you know of each trade how much he will move in the direction, or how long. All you know is the direction at that moment.
Enjoyed the discussion. We agree, that we disagree.
If people stay polite it can be interesting for both parties. Sometimes it leads to new knowledge or makes you think again about things you took for granted. It is never a loss of time.
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Enjoyed the discussion. We agree, that we disagree.
I can not believe what i am reading on this thread.
You are dealing with someone who is not rational, removed from reality, and perhaps has a nefarious agenda to sell you
The person states a 90% accuracy rate and makes ridiculous proclamations yet is taken seriously?
Put the nonsense on ignore!
YB
Hi Surf! Why don’t you stop with the gonzo hate vibe?