you have given away the secret of all successful scalpers: because unless they place tiny stop one loss will wipe out maybe the profit of a large number of trades
What is scalping?
- Thread starter padutrader
- Start date
I have to disagree with most of you, 100's different ways of scalping and I consider myself a scalper. I will on aggregate for the day between automation and any manual trading I do exceed 300-500 scalps per day per 24 hour symbol, risk on all of them exceeds any profit I might be able to make(my thoughts are why take a loss if you don't have to do so). And I enjoy the most of being in the 40-80% of making that one tick as this is the most consistent, by averaging down, all exits are one tick of original entry, so other entries am getting out between 2-6 ticks profits, am constantly testing to expand this 40-80% range. And while trying to prove something else, by error discovered patterns within the "book" or "price ladder", If I let it run full out, would do thousands of trades of ES in a 24 hour day, but always refining so as not to be a hog and put a limit of one signal an hour on both. If didn't ave down, maybe 1-2 losses a year if that, but ave down does produce more profit, and when price action rules dictate, a lose for someone else would occur, on average that would nail one tick gain cause average price went down. I would never trade a system where I didn't have an 90% edge.
I can read price pretty well of one minute and larger timeframe, BUT all based on percentages, can change opinions much faster than I can post one minute frames, LOL, almost every single time I am trying to learn to be more patient to stay in longer, prices will hit area of what I would have targeted and end up getting nothing for my time as trying to stay in longer, LOL
Any time people who have said "not to" or "can't be done", I view most as challenges and accounts be rewarded when I accomplish. On average in scalping for day sessions will average $8-23 per trade after fees, more trades the average goes down. Most people concentrate on making most money whereas I spend my time in my cave trying to get losing percentages and drawdown down. I ave down on each signal, down 5 price levels. Shutdown for the day does occur at 3 full losses, but due to reverses that cause some loss do not count, many trades are reverses as I try to go from wave to wave and get pieces of it. Most signals are counter-trend when entered.
I don't take one tick profits cause they are there, targets are based on ranges of one minute timeframes or 30 second timeframes, so original target be 4-8 ticks. Often times weak longs are my targets to reverse as they have losses or break evens. And most people will not say, if not for scalpers, they have larger spreads and get much slippage.
@Handle123 , I am following in your footsteps ... there were a number of assumptions/premises on this thread that I don't believe are true. I discovered quite easily on my own that the shorter the time frame, the more likely you can figure out what is apt to happen next, long time frames are for gamblers. It's also obvious to me that automation is "the only way".
For me scalping is most profitable and less risky way - by following market from smallest timeframes you are tunned and can feel breath and everystep. To stay more with the flow is coming with experience, like catching big waves on serf.
BS as in
??Well because it is generally “true” BS. Of course there are exceptions. But think about it. For a trade to have high probabilty means it will have had to move a fair amount in the proper direction already. That means less reward is left to capture. And the risk is greater because the SL has to be larger. This is counterintuitive and sounds backwards but it isn’t.
If a trader is looking for a trade that has small risk, and big reward, then probability will be lower. Why, well the trader is entering the trade EARLY on hopes he will get the direction correct AND CAPTURE more of the move. But he has no real move yet in play to confirm his entry so he has a less chance of hitting it correctly. But, if he/she is correct the reward will be greater because the trader is taking a position BEFORE the moves begins. THE RISK IS SMALL in this case.
There are no “perfect trades” I.E. low risk, big reward, high probability. If one does pan out is was just “luck”. Too many smart people trading. They are not going to let you get a perfect trade over and over again and again.
I absolutely agree with this.
It starts with an analysis of what the market actually IS. At its lowest level, above the hardware, communications lines, etc, it is simply people (and algo's) deciding to bid or ask at a price and volume, and above that a matching of those bid/asks by the exchange to result in a trade. SO MANY people try to read more into it than that ... it starts with assuming that trades have to move up and down in some kind of orderly way, that they have to take small steps, can't gap, etc ... and it ends in complete delusions like thinking that the money you spent to get into the market is "there", meaning that it is sitting in some account somewhere waiting for your to decide to withdraw it, when in reality you are holding stock and someone else has long since walked off with your money. Except that someone is willing to bid for your stock right this moment, there's no assurance you'll ever get a dime back from it.
The only thing close to a "sure thing" is small time frames that are doing the same perceptible repeating patterns so many times that it's a statistically likely event that B is going to follow A and you're going to make money. It's the difference between trying to (1) figure out by watching a person where they're going to go this afternoon based on nothing but where they are at, and (2) trying to figure out whether their right foot is going to hit the ground when they've been walking forward, are standing on the left foot, their right foot is in the air, they are leaning forward at 10% degrees beyond perpendicular, and if they don't put their right food down gravity is going to cause them to face plant on the concrete. I have no idea where they are going to walk to, if they want to get a haircut, if they intend to get some pizza or a coffee, or if they are part of a Mars mission and are about to get suited up to enter a spaceship ... but with statistics, careful observation, testing, etc, I believe we can figure out whether their right foot is going to hit the ground or not with a good amount of certainty. Those are the bets I like.
Yes 100%. Agreed! Long term is for mugs! Don't do it! Discretionary....total waste of time.
Carry on.
= automation.
Ya, so you gunna walk away from puter spinning 'round like a casino slot machine?
Automation doesn't mean you can walk outside the house.