Quote from Rimping:
If you want predictable, steady returns, the end is always a blow-up.
Read: Fooled by Randomness (Taleb)
Trader A:
year 1: 35%
year 2: -15%
year 3: 75%
year 4: 104%
year 5: -20%
year 6: -5%
year 7: 15%
year 8: 28%
Trader B:
year 1: 21%
year 2: 20%
year 3: 18%
year 4: 23%
year 5: 21%
year 6: 21%
year 7: 22%
year 8: 22%
Both traders make on average 21% per year.
Which trader is the safest? It is trader A and not B. Trader A is likely to go on like this. Trader B in one bad year will lose 98% and then it is over.
Good point. I believe this to be true also. Trader B seem to have capped the upside and believes his/her risk management is sound and also believes he/she has a formula to systematically take money out of the markets. What happens to such systems? Anyway, I believe Trader A is the one to bet on for the long-run even with the higher volatility of returns.