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What is happening with BRLC ?
- Thread starter wiesman02
- Start date
Hey, I figured out my BRLC mistake. Check the chart out. I was thinking it would go to the bottom trend line and I ignored what was really happening on the chart. There is a top trend line that went past me.
This is a huge symetrical triangle. The price gapped up through the top of the triangle and then reverted back to the top trend line.
Now the price sunk down past the top trend line, but I cant figure out if the price is now above or below that line and whether its now support or resistance.
I was operating under the philosophy of the bottom trend line only and did not see the larger picture. That was my mistake on the target price.
However, is the price above the top trend line now or below it? Is that support or resistance? If thats resistance, then this might spell either house of pain or house of pleasure in the future. I would not establish a position at this point until its clear of either the bottom or top trend line.
Check it out, sorry, this was my BRLC mistake. Actually, if I saw the top trend line then I wouldnt have longed it anyway. When the price falls into that apex, then anything can happen.
You can see when the price gapped up through the triangle, I believe the target was reached. Then when it reached its target it was sold off hard.
Someone is manipulating this stock. How can it reach the target price so perfectly and then once its in the apex, everyone starts covering? This is just too perfect. Wish I saw that top trend line, sorry.
This is a huge symetrical triangle. The price gapped up through the top of the triangle and then reverted back to the top trend line.
Now the price sunk down past the top trend line, but I cant figure out if the price is now above or below that line and whether its now support or resistance.
I was operating under the philosophy of the bottom trend line only and did not see the larger picture. That was my mistake on the target price.
However, is the price above the top trend line now or below it? Is that support or resistance? If thats resistance, then this might spell either house of pain or house of pleasure in the future. I would not establish a position at this point until its clear of either the bottom or top trend line.
Check it out, sorry, this was my BRLC mistake. Actually, if I saw the top trend line then I wouldnt have longed it anyway. When the price falls into that apex, then anything can happen.
You can see when the price gapped up through the triangle, I believe the target was reached. Then when it reached its target it was sold off hard.
Someone is manipulating this stock. How can it reach the target price so perfectly and then once its in the apex, everyone starts covering? This is just too perfect. Wish I saw that top trend line, sorry.
Attachments
Ok Tarl, its your time right now. Look at my chart, feel my chart. Any close above 5.75 and it will go to 13.
Now I need opinions...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BRLC&p=D&b=2&g=0&id=p95223282294
The Dow theory states that the smart money will exit out of a position first. This can be seen by the descending triangle on the chart. The dumb money exits out in one big crowd at the end. I am beginning to think and believe that the mid-5s maybe the bottom because of the 11 million volume dump.
My gut tells me that we have 20-30% down to go. Last year such a scenario took place. There was a high volume dump followed by short covering spike then the price continued downwards about 20% before it turned up.
Somehow I think we have one more bad news story to go. Somewhere there is a story that we are not seeing. The volume has been decreasing over the last few days since the short covering spike and the price isnt moving up.
The tricky part about these low single digit stocks is that entering at the wrong price can be disasterous. This thing could fall 20% in a day if it wanted.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BRLC&p=D&b=2&g=0&id=p95223282294
The Dow theory states that the smart money will exit out of a position first. This can be seen by the descending triangle on the chart. The dumb money exits out in one big crowd at the end. I am beginning to think and believe that the mid-5s maybe the bottom because of the 11 million volume dump.
My gut tells me that we have 20-30% down to go. Last year such a scenario took place. There was a high volume dump followed by short covering spike then the price continued downwards about 20% before it turned up.
Somehow I think we have one more bad news story to go. Somewhere there is a story that we are not seeing. The volume has been decreasing over the last few days since the short covering spike and the price isnt moving up.
The tricky part about these low single digit stocks is that entering at the wrong price can be disasterous. This thing could fall 20% in a day if it wanted.
The problem with that sort of theory is that this is not IBM or INTEL.
It is a speculative stock, a relatively new company, in a product area with obvious future sales growth.
(Of course, it is impossible to forecast the fortunes of this particular company in terms of their market share and earnings.)
So, "exiting" because of various market conditions is not really relevant. All the possible reasons to buy the stock are in terms of 18 months from now (plus or minus), not 18 minutes or 18 days.
It is a speculative stock, a relatively new company, in a product area with obvious future sales growth.
(Of course, it is impossible to forecast the fortunes of this particular company in terms of their market share and earnings.)
So, "exiting" because of various market conditions is not really relevant. All the possible reasons to buy the stock are in terms of 18 months from now (plus or minus), not 18 minutes or 18 days.
Tarl,
Your belief is that since BRLC is not a big stock like IBM or INTEL then technical analysis or theory cannot be used and is useless with a stock like BRLC.
However, you dont know who designed most of these models that are used. Candlesticks were originally used to trade rice over 300 years ago in markets with much less volume. Indicators like on-balance volume and the Chaikan Money Flow were developed by Mr. Chaikan during the 50s when the typical volume of the NYSE was 2-3 million per day and market capitalization was much smaller.
The Dow Theory was constructed in a time where volume per day on the nyse was measured in hundreds of thousands per day and sometimes less. In fact, some of the stocks traded out in crowds on the street where riots errupted often and there were still horse&carriages driving by. If you notice the NYPD on Wall Street of the time oftentimes consisted of tall, imposing individuals with large clubs. That was to rid the streets of Makloda, Volente and Hydroblunt who constantly caused trouble when us legitimate traders tried to trade our stock outside the NYSE.
The stocks of yesteryear were also much MORE speculative then the stocks you see today.
The technical analysis you see today was constructed for a market that was much more speculative and primitive then what you see today. In fact, these theories were designed for speculative stocks and NOT the IBM or INTEL stocks you see today.
Name one technical theory that was designed for stocks like IBM or INTEL?
Name a market more speculative then a crazy open outcry street auction market involving rice or where stocks were traded on the street free of any SEC regulation.
Technical analysis was designed for stocks specifically like BRLC and not for stocks like IBM and Intel.
Your belief is that since BRLC is not a big stock like IBM or INTEL then technical analysis or theory cannot be used and is useless with a stock like BRLC.
However, you dont know who designed most of these models that are used. Candlesticks were originally used to trade rice over 300 years ago in markets with much less volume. Indicators like on-balance volume and the Chaikan Money Flow were developed by Mr. Chaikan during the 50s when the typical volume of the NYSE was 2-3 million per day and market capitalization was much smaller.
The Dow Theory was constructed in a time where volume per day on the nyse was measured in hundreds of thousands per day and sometimes less. In fact, some of the stocks traded out in crowds on the street where riots errupted often and there were still horse&carriages driving by. If you notice the NYPD on Wall Street of the time oftentimes consisted of tall, imposing individuals with large clubs. That was to rid the streets of Makloda, Volente and Hydroblunt who constantly caused trouble when us legitimate traders tried to trade our stock outside the NYSE.
The stocks of yesteryear were also much MORE speculative then the stocks you see today.
The technical analysis you see today was constructed for a market that was much more speculative and primitive then what you see today. In fact, these theories were designed for speculative stocks and NOT the IBM or INTEL stocks you see today.
Name one technical theory that was designed for stocks like IBM or INTEL?
Name a market more speculative then a crazy open outcry street auction market involving rice or where stocks were traded on the street free of any SEC regulation.
Technical analysis was designed for stocks specifically like BRLC and not for stocks like IBM and Intel.
Fwiw, I will not buy BRLC until I see the low 4's, possibly high 3's if it gets there.
Quote from michaelscott:
Tarl,
Your belief is that since BRLC is not a big stock like IBM or INTEL then technical analysis or theory cannot be used and is useless with a stock like BRLC.
However, you dont know who designed most of these models that are used. Candlesticks were originally used to trade rice over 300 years ago in markets with much less volume. Indicators like on-balance volume and the Chaikan Money Flow were developed by Mr. Chaikan during the 50s when the typical volume of the NYSE was 2-3 million per day and market capitalization was much smaller.
The Dow Theory was constructed in a time where volume per day on the nyse was measured in hundreds of thousands per day and sometimes less. In fact, some of the stocks traded out in crowds on the street where riots errupted often and there were still horse&carriages driving by. If you notice the NYPD on Wall Street of the time oftentimes consisted of tall, imposing individuals with large clubs. That was to rid the streets of Makloda, Volente and Hydroblunt who constantly caused trouble when us legitimate traders tried to trade our stock outside the NYSE.
The stocks of yesteryear were also much MORE speculative then the stocks you see today.
The technical analysis you see today was constructed for a market that was much more speculative and primitive then what you see today. In fact, these theories were designed for speculative stocks and NOT the IBM or INTEL stocks you see today.
Name one technical theory that was designed for stocks like IBM or INTEL?
Name a market more speculative then a crazy open outcry street auction market involving rice or where stocks were traded on the street free of any SEC regulation.
Technical analysis was designed for stocks specifically like BRLC and not for stocks like IBM and Intel.
All BS.. TA is merely a method to attempt to put logic and order into herd psychology that drives price patterns.
About metering speculation, I can't believe how absurd this is.
The jury is still out if it is statistically worthwhile. Voodoo and tea leaves at best. Mandelbrot himself said something along the lines that it is a fool's game to try to define order in the chaos of financial markets.
That said, I see TA work all the time. Of course, TA judgment is so subjective since different TA masters can see different and opposing signals on the same chart. With that said, all of your arguments of 'TA is not designed for these stocks blah blah' are just as silly.
BTW, many would say TA works best on commodities and well with stocks in periods absence of wild fundamentals changers (ie biotech stocks with FDA releases, all or nothing merger and earnings announcements, etc).
You have to understand the whole picture, including other forces that drive price (options / derivatives trading on the underlying, games between big players), etc. to best stay out of trouble.
http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2007/07/12/flame-out-candidates-to-avoid-corrected.aspx
Seems MotleyFool forgot to included some insignificant revenue from a
secondary offering on SHO stock, BRLC. Don't worry. They corrected it
after the close. this is just one event in a long "business as usual if you are naked shorted" cycle. This is why I warn you guys who get into these stocks without realizing what you're up against.
What a joke.
MF and Patrick have been feuding for years.
Seems MotleyFool forgot to included some insignificant revenue from a
secondary offering on SHO stock, BRLC. Don't worry. They corrected it
after the close. this is just one event in a long "business as usual if you are naked shorted" cycle. This is why I warn you guys who get into these stocks without realizing what you're up against.
What a joke.
MF and Patrick have been feuding for years.